Swansea v West Ham prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Swansea 0–1 West Ham WEST HAM WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said West Ham win~~43%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.493

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.448

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said West Ham win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: West Ham 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 33–24–43
1′KICK-OFF Swansea v West Ham
8′Little has changed for our model: West Ham 43% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 32–26–42
35′A goal for West Ham on 34′. 0–0 · 30–32–38
35′⚽ GOAL · 34' Swansea 0–1 West Ham · Divine Mukasa
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' West Ham win: 43% at kick-off, 70% now
36′We said West Ham at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 10–20–70
36′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 10–20–70
43′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Divine Mukasa · West Ham
45′HALF-TIME Swansea 0–1 West Ham
45′SECOND HALF Swansea 0–1 West Ham
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' West Ham win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
57′We said West Ham at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–20–75
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Swansea · On: Stephen Eustáquio · Off: Jay Fulton
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Swansea · On: Eom Ji-Sung · Off: Joseph Amankwaah Opoku
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' West Ham · On: Taty Castellanos · Off: Pablo Felipe Pereira de Jesus
69′We said West Ham at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' West Ham · On: Edvin Austbö · Off: Mohamadou Kante
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' West Ham win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Swansea · On: Elijah Just · Off: Moussa Kounfolo Yeo
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Swansea · On: melker widell · Off: Goncalo Franco
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Swansea · On: Zan Vipotnik · Off: Marko Stamenić
77′We said West Ham at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 1–13–85
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Taty Castellanos · West Ham
82′We said West Ham at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' West Ham win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' West Ham · On: Tomáš Souček · Off: Manor Solomon
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' West Ham · On: Joel Piroe · Off: Divine Mukasa
87′Swansea have had 11 attempts to 6 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 0–6–94
89′We said West Ham at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
90′0–1 at the end. Our 43% on West Ham comes in. 0–1 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Swansea 0–1 West Ham
FTSwansea 0–1 West Ham · West Ham win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

West Ham are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Swansea 33%, draw 24%, West Ham 43%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Swansea v West HamBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Swansea win33%

Draw24%

West Ham win43%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueSwansea.com Stadium

RefereeJosh Smith

Line-ups

Swansea

4-3-3

West Ham

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Swansea

West Ham

4Days since last match3

Last match: 13 Oct · the English Championship

Last match: 14 Oct · the English Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Tonda Eckert will feel zero Southampton transfer regret at Swansea City situationFootball League World · 17 Oct 07:20 · Southampton, Swansea

I played for West Ham & Nottingham Forest - now I'm an Uber driverFootball League World · 17 Oct 06:45 · West Ham, Nottingham Forest

Burnley eyeing shock West Ham transfer raidFootball League World · 16 Oct 15:17 · West Ham

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Swansea

4-3-3

22 L. Vigouroux

35 Ronald

5 B. Cabango

23 S. Welsh

14 J. Tymon

17 G. Franco

4 J. Fulton

6 M. Stamenic

49 M. K. Yeo

33 A. Idah

30 J. Opoku

Coach · Vitor Emanuel Soares Matos

Substitutes

1 · A. Fisher

50 · C. Heywood

3 · J. Seelt

46 · S. Eustaquio

10 · Eom Ji-Sung

7 · M. Widell

44 · T. Woodward

8 · E. Just

9 · Z. Vipotnik

West Ham

4-2-3-1

1 M. Hermansen

34 J. Veltman

15 K. Mavropanos

3 M. Kilman

5 Morato

14 D. Mukasa

7 A. Engels

20 J. Bowen

17 M. Kante

10 M. Solomon

19 Pablo

Coach · Nuno Espirito Santo

Substitutes

23 · A. Areola

2 · K. Walker-Peters

30 · O. Scarles

58 · A. Golambeckis

61 · L. Orford

28 · T. Soucek

35 · E. Austbo

9 · J. Piroe

11 · T. Castellanos

Our number · west ham winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:36 · locked at kick-off

43% The market45%

Us43%

~~Market~~45%

We make West Ham a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Swansea v West Ham~~1.40 – 1.64

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 23 v 19~~1 v 3

~~The market · West Ham win~~45% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · West Ham win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Swansea win	33%	29%	+4
Draw	24%	26%	−2
West Ham win	43%	45%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	58%	54%	+4
Both teams to score	60%	58%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	81%	77%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	36%	33%	+3
Swansea or draw	57%	55%	+2
Swansea clean sheet	20%	–	–
West Ham clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.2 7.7 6.4 3.5 1 6.6 11.1 8.8 4.8 2.0 2 4.7 7.6 6.1 3.4 3 2.2 3.6 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Swansea down, West Ham across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,905 Championship matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.3% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Swansea at home: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). West Ham away: 2.80 scored, 1.40 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Swansea, 1.64 for West Ham. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 5 Sept

SWANSEA

DLWWWW0–0 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

WEST HAM

WWWDDW3–0 · 3–2 · 6–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 6–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea	10	+9	23
2	Middlesbrough	10	+6	21
3	West Ham	10	+17	19
4	Birmingham	10	+6	17
5	QPR	10	+6	17
6	Wolves	10	+3	17
7	West Brom	10	+2	17
8	Southampton	10	+11	16
9	Stoke City	10	+1	16
10	Blackburn	10	+2	15
11	Millwall	10	0	14
12	Bristol City	10	−2	14
13	Charlton	10	−3	14
14	Bolton	10	−3	13
15	Sheffield Utd	10	0	12
16	Portsmouth	9	−1	11
17	Wrexham	10	−4	11
18	Lincoln	10	−10	11
19	Cardiff	10	+1	10
20	Norwich	10	−3	9
21	Burnley	11	−5	8
22	Watford	10	−11	8
23	Derby	10	−10	6
24	Preston	10	−12	4