Swansea v Norwich

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Swansea win at 43%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Swansea 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–25–32
3. 1′KICK-OFF Swansea v Norwich
4. 21′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Jay Fulton · Swansea
5. 27′⚽ GOAL · 28' Swansea 0–0 Norwich · Jacob Wright
6. 27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Swansea 0–1 Norwich · Jacob Wright
7. 29′Norwich ahead on 28′ through Jacob Wright. 0–1. 0–1 · 15–23–61
8. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Swansea win: 43% at kick-off, 15% now
9. 29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Norwich win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Swansea win 15%)
10. 30′We said Swansea at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–23–62
11. 32′We said Swansea at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–62
12. 35′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 14–24–63
13. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Swansea win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
14. 45′HALF-TIME Swansea 0–1 Norwich
15. 45′SECOND HALF Swansea 0–1 Norwich
16. 49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Swansea 1–1 Norwich · Jacob Wright
17. 49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Swansea 1–1 Norwich · Moussa Kounfolo Yeo
18. 50′Moussa Kounfolo Yeo scores for Swansea on 49′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 33–41–26
19. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Swansea win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
20. 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Norwich win 26%)
21. 55′We said Swansea at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 1–1 · 31–44–25
22. 57′Swansea have had 9.0 attempts to 4.0 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 30–45–24
23. 57′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Pelle Mattsson · Norwich
24. 58′⚽ GOAL · 59' Swansea 1–1 Norwich · Adam Idah
25. 59′59′ and it is 2–1: Adam Idah on the scoresheet for Swansea. 2–1 · 76–19–5
26. 59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Swansea 2–1 Norwich · Adam Idah
27. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Swansea win: 43% at kick-off, 76% now
28. 59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Swansea win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 19%)
29. 61′We said Swansea at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 2–1 · 77–19–4
30. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Swansea · On: Zan Vipotnik · Off: Adam Idah Corrected
31. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Norwich · On: Samuel Field · Off: Paris Maghoma Corrected
32. 63′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 78–18–4
33. 67′We said Swansea at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
34. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Swansea · On: Marko Stamenić · Off: Jay Fulton Corrected
35. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Swansea · On: Elijah Just · Off: melker widell Corrected
36. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Norwich · On: Anthony Musaba · Off: Andre Brooks Corrected
37. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Norwich · On: J. Makama · Off: Mathias Kvistgaarden Corrected
38. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Swansea win: 43% at kick-off, 84% now
39. 81′We said Swansea at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 2–1 · 89–10–1
40. 83′We said Swansea at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–1 · 91–8–0
41. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Swansea · On: Jenson Seelt · Off: Stephen Welsh Corrected
42. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Swansea · On: Eom Ji-Sung · Off: Joseph Amankwaah Opoku Corrected
43. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Norwich · On: Anis Ben Slimane · Off: Jacob Wright Corrected
44. 87′We said Swansea at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–1 · 96–4–0
45. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Swansea win: 43% at kick-off, 96% now
46. 90′We said Swansea at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 2–1 · 100–0–0
47. FTFULL TIME Swansea 2–1 Norwich
48. FTSwansea 2–1 Norwich · Swansea win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.