Stoke City v Preston prediction · Championship

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Stoke CityDrawPreston

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Stoke City 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stoke City are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stoke City 46%, draw 27%, Preston 27%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Stoke City v PrestonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Stoke City win46%

Draw27%

Preston win27%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 13

VenueBet365 Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stoke City

Preston

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the English Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Stoke City	12	+2	20
24	Preston	12	−15	5

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Stoke City must settle new Ipswich Town transfer agreementFootball League World · 24 Oct 07:15 · Stoke City, Ipswich

Stoke City can laugh to the bank after repeating Middlesbrough transfer trickFootball League World · 23 Oct 18:15 · Stoke City, Middlesbrough

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stoke city winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Stoke City a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stoke City v Preston~~1.43 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 20 v 5~~9 v 24

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stoke City win	46%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Preston win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Stoke City or draw	73%	–	–
Stoke City clean sheet	36%	–	–
Preston clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.9 8.6 4.5 1 12.1 12.7 6.4 2.2 2 8.8 8.9 4.6 3 4.2 4.3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stoke City down, Preston across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,929 Championship matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 144 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stoke City at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Preston away: 0.83 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Stoke City, 1.02 for Preston. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PRE 3–1 STO · STO 0–0 PRE · PRE 1–1 STO · STO 0–0 PRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 12 Sept

STOKE CITY

WWWLWD2–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 0–0

PRESTON

LDLLLD0–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–4 · 1–4 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Middlesbrough	12	+10	25
2	Swansea	12	+3	23
3	West Ham	12	+17	22
4	Wolves	12	+4	21
5	West Brom	12	+3	21
6	Southampton	12	+12	20
7	Birmingham	12	+8	20
8	QPR	12	+8	20
9	Stoke City	12	+2	20
10	Blackburn	12	+3	18
11	Portsmouth	12	+1	18
12	Sheffield Utd	12	+1	16
13	Millwall	12	−1	15
14	Bristol City	12	−3	15
15	Lincoln	12	−7	15
16	Cardiff	12	+2	14
17	Wrexham	12	−3	14
18	Bolton	12	−7	14
19	Charlton	12	−7	14
20	Norwich	12	−2	12
21	Watford	12	−10	11
22	Burnley	12	−8	8
23	Derby	12	−11	7
24	Preston	12	−15	5