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Stoke City v Middlesbrough

Stoke City

2–3Full time

Middlesbrough

Championship · TUE 13 OCT · bet365 Stadium

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Stoke City 2–3 Middlesbrough MIDDLESBROUGH WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Middlesbrough win~~41%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.525

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.394

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Middlesbrough win at 41%.
0′Much as we predicted: Middlesbrough was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 32–27–41
1′KICK-OFF Stoke City v Middlesbrough
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Middlesbrough win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Stoke City 0–0 Middlesbrough
45′SECOND HALF Stoke City 0–0 Middlesbrough
47′Middlesbrough have had 8.0 attempts to 2.0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 27–41–33
47′⚽ GOAL · 48' Stoke City 0–0 Middlesbrough · Callum Brittain
48′Middlesbrough ahead on 48′ through Callum Brittain. 0–1. 0–1 · 6–20–74
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Stoke City 0–1 Middlesbrough · Callum Brittain
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Middlesbrough win: 41% at kick-off, 74% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Middlesbrough win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 20%)
49′We published Middlesbrough at 41%. Our model now makes it 74%. 0–1 · 6–20–74
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Stoke City 1–1 Middlesbrough · Callum Brittain
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Stoke City 1–1 Middlesbrough · Junior Tchamadeu
51′Neto Borges scores for Stoke City on 50′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 25–44–31
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Middlesbrough win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Middlesbrough win 31%)
52′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Sebastian Berhalter · Middlesbrough
56′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Sebastian Berhalter · Middlesbrough
63′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Middlesbrough · On: Riley McGree · Off: Sebastian Berhalter Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Middlesbrough · On: Tommy Conway · Off: Jeremy Sarmiento Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Stoke City · On: George Hirst · Off: Lamine Cissé Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Stoke City · On: Ben Gibson · Off: Bae Jun-ho Corrected
67′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Luke Graham · Stoke City
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Stoke City 1–2 Middlesbrough · will lankshear
77′73′ and it is 1–2: will lankshear on the scoresheet for Middlesbrough. 1–2 · 1–12–87
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Middlesbrough · On: Kyle Joseph · Off: will lankshear Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Middlesbrough · On: Max Arfsten · Off: Amario Cozier-Duberry Corrected
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Middlesbrough win: 41% at kick-off, 87% now
77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Middlesbrough win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 12%)
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Stoke City · On: Bosun Lawal · Off: Junior Tchamadeu Corrected
79′We published Middlesbrough at 41%. Our model now makes it 89%. 1–2 · 1–11–89
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Stoke City · On: Róbert Boženík · Off: El Hadji Soumare Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Stoke City · On: Luca Bombino · Off: Eric Junior Bocat Corrected
82′We published Middlesbrough at 41%. Our model now makes it 91%. 1–2 · 0–8–91
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Middlesbrough win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Stoke City 2–2 Middlesbrough · Neto Borges
86′Stoke City level it on 85′ through Róbert Boženík. 2–2. 2–2 · 6–87–7
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Middlesbrough win: 41% at kick-off, 7% now
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Draw is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Middlesbrough win 7%)
87′We said Middlesbrough at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 2–2 · 5–88–6
88′15.0 shots for Middlesbrough, 4.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 2–2 · 5–90–6
89′17.0 shots for Middlesbrough, 8.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 2–2 · 4–91–5
90′We said Middlesbrough at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–92–4
91′Neto Borges scores for Middlesbrough on 90′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 0–3–97
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' Stoke City 2–3 Middlesbrough · Neto Borges
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 91' Middlesbrough win: 41% at kick-off, 97% now
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 91' Middlesbrough win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 3%)
92′We published Middlesbrough at 41%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–3 · 0–2–98
93′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 0–2–98
FTFULL TIME Stoke City 2–3 Middlesbrough
FTStoke City 2–3 Middlesbrough · Middlesbrough win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Stoke City v MiddlesbroughBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:56 · locked at kick-off

Stoke City win32%

Draw27%

Middlesbrough win41%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 20:00

Venuebet365 Stadium

RefereeElliot Bell

Line-ups

Stoke City

3-4-3

Middlesbrough

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Stoke City

Middlesbrough

3Days since last match3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Middlesbrough	9	+5	18
5	Stoke City	9	+2	16

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Police release statement after 'alarming' fan incident in Middlesbrough v Wolves matchFootball League World · 8 hours ago · Police, Middlesbrough, Wolves

8 players set to miss Stoke City vs Middlesbrough ft £4.3m summer signingFootball League World · 12 hours ago · Stoke City, Middlesbrough

Coventry City promotion hero out of contract in 2027 - Middlesbrough & Stoke must eye him upFootball League World · 12 hours ago · Coventry, Middlesbrough, Stoke City

Man charged after images emerge 'mocking Middlesbrough fans' over A66 crash that killed sevenMirror Football · 21 hours ago · Middlesbrough

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Stoke City

3-4-3

1 V. Johansson

2 B. Johnson

16 B. Wilmot

5 L. Graham

22 J. Tchamadeu

27 D. Soumare

8 E. Galbraith

17 E. Bocat

7 J. McGlynn

11 L. Cisse

10 Bae Jun-Ho

Coach · Mark Robins

Substitutes

24 · J. Griffiths

21 · L. Bombino

23 · B. Gibson

18 · B. Lawal

4 · B. Pearson

13 · J. Devenny

9 · R. Bozenik

42 · M. Manhoef

15 · G. Hirst

Middlesbrough

3-4-2-1

1 R. Vitek

12 L. Ayling

4 A. Phillips

29 A. Malanda

2 C. Brittain

6 S. Berhalter

10 A. Morris

30 Neto Borges

11 A. Cozier-Duberry

16 J. Sarmiento

7 W. Lankshear

Coach · Kim Hellberg

Substitutes

31 · S. Brynn

3 · S. Byram

14 · M. Peart-Harris

8 · R. McGree

18 · C. Barron

19 · L. Castledine

9 · T. Conway

22 · K. Joseph

17 · M. Arfsten

Our number · middlesbrough winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:56 · locked at kick-off

41% The market49%

Us41%

~~Market~~49%

We make Middlesbrough a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · middlesbrough win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 48% to 49% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stoke City win	32%	26%	+6
Draw	27%	26%	+2
Middlesbrough win	41%	49%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	46%	53%	−7
Both teams to score	51%	56%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	72%	76%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	25%	33%	−8
Stoke City or draw	59%	51%	+8
Stoke City clean sheet	26%	–	–
Middlesbrough clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 8.4 10.5 7.4 3.4 1 9.0 12.9 8.6 3.9 2 5.4 7.4 5.0 2.3 3 2.1 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stoke City down, Middlesbrough across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,892 Championship matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.7% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.30 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stoke City at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Middlesbrough away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Stoke City, 1.36 for Middlesbrough. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 13 Oct 19:32. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~STO 1–2 MID · MID 0–0 STO · STO 1–3 MID · MID 2–0 STO

Form · last six in Championship

STOKE CITY

WWDWWW1–0 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–1

MIDDLESBROUGH

DWWDDW1–1 · 1–0 · 4–3 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea	9	+8	20
2	Middlesbrough	9	+5	18
3	Southampton	9	+10	17
4	West Ham	9	+11	16
5	Stoke City	9	+2	16
6	Wolves	8	+4	14
7	QPR	9	+3	14
8	Birmingham	9	+2	14
9	Millwall	9	+1	14
10	West Brom	9	+1	14
11	Bristol City	9	−1	14
12	Charlton	9	−3	13
13	Blackburn	9	+1	12
14	Sheffield Utd	9	+1	12
15	Wrexham	9	−3	11
16	Lincoln	9	−4	11
17	Bolton	9	−5	10
18	Norwich	9	−2	9
19	Portsmouth	8	−2	8
20	Watford	9	−7	8
21	Cardiff	9	−3	7
22	Burnley	9	−4	7
23	Derby	9	−7	6
24	Preston	9	−8	4