Southampton v QPR prediction · Championship

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SouthamptonDrawQPR

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Southampton 60%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Southampton are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Southampton 60%, draw 21%, QPR 19%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Southampton v QPRBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Southampton win60%

Draw21%

QPR win19%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueSt. Mary's Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Southampton

QPR

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the English Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Southampton	12	+12	20
8	QPR	12	+8	20

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Spygate put me in difficult position - Southampton technical directorBBC Sport · 23 Oct 18:23 · Southampton

Man City won't be happy with Southampton situation - Cardiff City must reactFootball League World · 23 Oct 08:40 · Manchester City, Southampton, Cardiff

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · southampton winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Southampton a 60% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Southampton v QPR~~2.04 – 1.05

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 20 v 20~~6 v 8

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Southampton win	60%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
QPR win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Southampton or draw	81%	–	–
Southampton clean sheet	35%	–	–
QPR clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.8 4.7 2.6 1 9.1 9.9 5.1 2 9.4 9.8 5.1 3 6.4 6.6 3.5 4 3.3 3.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Southampton down, QPR across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,929 Championship matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 144 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Southampton at home: 2.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). QPR away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.04 goals for Southampton, 1.05 for QPR. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SOU 5–0 QPR · QPR 1–2 SOU · QPR 0–1 SOU · SOU 2–1 QPR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 12 Sept

SOUTHAMPTON

WLWWDW4–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 3–2

QPR

DDDWLW1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 0–3 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Middlesbrough	12	+10	25
2	Swansea	12	+3	23
3	West Ham	12	+17	22
4	Wolves	12	+4	21
5	West Brom	12	+3	21
6	Southampton	12	+12	20
7	Birmingham	12	+8	20
8	QPR	12	+8	20
9	Stoke City	12	+2	20
10	Blackburn	12	+3	18
11	Portsmouth	12	+1	18
12	Sheffield Utd	12	+1	16
13	Millwall	12	−1	15
14	Bristol City	12	−3	15
15	Lincoln	12	−7	15
16	Cardiff	12	+2	14
17	Wrexham	12	−3	14
18	Bolton	12	−7	14
19	Charlton	12	−7	14
20	Norwich	12	−2	12
21	Watford	12	−10	11
22	Burnley	12	−8	8
23	Derby	12	−11	7
24	Preston	12	−15	5