Southampton v Portsmouth prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34

Southampton 1–0 Portsmouth SOUTHAMPTON WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Southampton win~~62%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.219

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.240

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Southampton win at 62%.
1′Much as we predicted: Southampton was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 62–20–18
1′KICK-OFF Southampton v Portsmouth
2′Much as we predicted: Southampton was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 62–20–18
19′20′ and it is 1–0: Southampton have scored. 1–0 · 82–13–6
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Southampton 1–0 Portsmouth
19′⚽ GOAL · 20' Southampton 1–0 Portsmouth
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Southampton win: 62% at kick-off, 82% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Southampton win: 62% at kick-off, 58% now
20′20′ and it is 1–0: James Bree on the scoresheet for Southampton. 1–0 · 82–13–6
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Southampton win: 62% at kick-off, 82% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Southampton win: 62% at kick-off, 58% now
21′We published Southampton at 62%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–13–5
22′We published Southampton at 62%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–13–5
30′We published Southampton at 62%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–13–5
31′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 82–13–5
34′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Cameron Bragg · Southampton
34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Ebou Adams · Portsmouth
35′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 82–14–5
43′🟥 RED CARD · 43' Portsmouth
43′🟥 RED CARD · 44' Cameron Bragg · Southampton
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Southampton win: 62% at kick-off, 82% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Southampton win: 62% at kick-off, 82% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Southampton win: 62% at kick-off, 82% now
45′SECOND HALF Southampton 1–0 Portsmouth
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Portsmouth · On: Adrian Segecic · Off: Ryan Kavuma-McQueen Corrected
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Cyle Larin · Southampton
52′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Finn Azaz · Southampton
56′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Jayden Meghoma · Portsmouth
56′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Southampton · On: Kuryu Matsuki · Off: Léo Scienza Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Portsmouth · On: Odin Bailey · Off: Ebou Adams Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Portsmouth · On: Terry Devlin · Off: Jayden Meghoma Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Portsmouth · On: Marko Milovanović · Off: Colby·Bishop Corrected
68′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Terry Devlin · Portsmouth
71′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Southampton · On: Caspar Jander · Off: Cyle Larin Corrected
76′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Portsmouth · On: Keshi Anderson · Off: Zak Swanson Corrected
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Keven Schlotterbeck · Southampton
FTFULL TIME Southampton 1–0 Portsmouth
FTSouthampton 1–0 Portsmouth · Southampton win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Southampton win62%

Draw21%

Portsmouth win17%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

VenueSt. Mary's Stadium

RefereeAdam Herczeg

Line-ups

Southampton

4-4-2

Portsmouth

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Southampton

Portsmouth

22Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Southampton	8	+9	14
19	Portsmouth	7	−1	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Sky Sports pundit breaks down in tears live on air before Southampton vs PortsmouthMirror Football · 31 min ago · Southampton, Portsmouth

Auxerre predicted XI v Rennes: Cameron Archer to lead the lineGet French Football News · 2 hours ago · Auxerre, Rennes, Southampton How to watch Southampton vs Portsmouth for free – TV channel, live stream, kick-off timeMirror Football · 3 hours ago · Southampton, Portsmouth

Southampton defensive ace set to leave in 2027 - Burnley & Middlesbrough must move inFootball League World · 4 hours ago · Southampton, Burnley, Middlesbrough

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Southampton

4-4-2

1 D. Peretz

14 J. Bree

5 J. Stephens

13 K. Schlotterbeck

3 R. Manning

30 J. Ward-Prowse

26 C. Bragg

4 F. Downes

7 L. Scienza

9 C. Larin

10 F. Azaz

Coach · Tonda Eckert

Substitutes

25 · G. Long

34 · Welington

15 · N. Wood

18 · T. Fellows

27 · K. Matsuki

8 · C. Jander

11 · L. Dobbin

23 · S. Edozie

28 · D. Mubama

Portsmouth

4-2-3-1

1 N. Schmid

22 Z. Swanson

5 R. Poole

55 M. Dia

16 J. Meghoma

7 M. Pack

38 E. Adams

25 R. Kavuma McQueen

11 A. Kamara

17 T. Shade

9 C. Bishop

Coach · John Mousinho

Substitutes

31 · D. Bielica

27 · O. Bailey

19 · R. R. Shein

10 · A. Segecic

24 · T. Devlin

37 · I. Mohamed

21 · K. Anderson

29 · Marezi

32 · E. Kenny

Our number · southampton winPublished 11 Oct 12:12

62% The market60%

Us62%

~~Market~~60%

We make Southampton a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.1–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · southampton win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 59% to 60% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Southampton win	62%	60%	+2
Draw	21%	22%	−2
Portsmouth win	17%	18%	0
Over 2.5 goals	61%	59%	+2
Both teams to score	57%	57%	0
Over 1.5 goals	83%	79%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	39%	38%	+1
Southampton or draw	83%	82%	0
Southampton clean sheet	35%	–	–
Portsmouth clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.8%

0123450 4.6 4.2 2.3 1 8.7 9.5 4.8 2 9.4 9.8 5.1 3 6.7 6.9 3.6 4 3.6 3.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Southampton down, Portsmouth across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,891 Championship matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.3% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Southampton at home: 3.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Portsmouth away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.14 goals for Southampton, 1.04 for Portsmouth. Most likely score 2–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 11:38. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~POR 1–1 SOU · SOU 0–0 POR

Form · last six in Championship

SOUTHAMPTON

WDDWWL5–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 4–1 · 1–2

PORTSMOUTH

WLLWDD3–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea	9	+8	20
2	Middlesbrough	9	+5	18
3	West Ham	9	+11	16
4	Stoke City	9	+2	16
5	Southampton	8	+9	14
6	Wolves	8	+4	14
7	QPR	9	+3	14
8	Birmingham	9	+2	14
9	Millwall	9	+1	14
10	West Brom	9	+1	14
11	Bristol City	9	−1	14
12	Charlton	9	−3	13
13	Blackburn	9	+1	12
14	Sheffield Utd	9	+1	12
15	Wrexham	9	−3	11
16	Lincoln	9	−4	11
17	Bolton	9	−5	10
18	Norwich	9	−2	9
19	Portsmouth	7	−1	8
20	Watford	9	−7	8
21	Cardiff	9	−3	7
22	Burnley	9	−4	7
23	Derby	9	−7	6
24	Preston	9	−8	4