Sheffield Utd v Wrexham prediction · Championship

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sheffield UtdDrawWrexham

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Sheffield Utd 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sheffield Utd are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sheffield Utd 50%, draw 25%, Wrexham 26%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Sheffield Utd v WrexhamBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Sheffield Utd win50%

Draw25%

Wrexham win26%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueBramall Lane

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sheffield Utd

Wrexham

6Days since last match6

Last match: 24 Oct · the English Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Sheffield Utd	12	+1	16
17	Wrexham	12	−3	14

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Henrik Pedersen has done one Sheffield Wednesday thing that Sheffield United couldn’tFootball League World · 24 Oct 08:20 · Sheffield Wednesday, Sheffield Utd

Sheffield United must ready January action as Barnsley situation worsensFootball League World · 24 Oct 08:15 · Sheffield Utd, Barnsley

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sheffield utd winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · updated 25 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Sheffield Utd a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sheffield Utd v Wrexham~~1.67 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 16 v 14~~12 v 17

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sheffield Utd win

Published at 49%, 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sheffield Utd win	50%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Wrexham win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Sheffield Utd or draw	74%	–	–
Sheffield Utd clean sheet	32%	–	–
Wrexham clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.3 6.7 3.9 1 9.9 11.6 6.5 2.5 2 8.4 9.4 5.4 2.1 3 4.7 5.3 3.0 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sheffield Utd down, Wrexham across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,929 Championship matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 144 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 5.40 goals a meeting; 5 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sheffield Utd at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Wrexham away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Sheffield Utd, 1.14 for Wrexham. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~5.40

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 5

~~Both scored~~5 of 5

~~Last meetings~~SHE 1–2 WRE · WRE 5–3 SHE · SHE 4–2 WRE · SHE 3–1 WRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 11 Sept

SHEFFIELD UTD

LLWLWD0–1 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 1–1

WREXHAM

LWDLWL0–6 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Middlesbrough	12	+10	25
2	Swansea	12	+3	23
3	West Ham	12	+17	22
4	Wolves	12	+4	21
5	West Brom	12	+3	21
6	Southampton	12	+12	20
7	Birmingham	12	+8	20
8	QPR	12	+8	20
9	Stoke City	12	+2	20
10	Blackburn	12	+3	18
11	Portsmouth	12	+1	18
12	Sheffield Utd	12	+1	16
13	Millwall	12	−1	15
14	Bristol City	12	−3	15
15	Lincoln	12	−7	15
16	Cardiff	12	+2	14
17	Wrexham	12	−3	14
18	Bolton	12	−7	14
19	Charlton	12	−7	14
20	Norwich	12	−2	12
21	Watford	12	−10	11
22	Burnley	12	−8	8
23	Derby	12	−11	7
24	Preston	12	−15	5