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Sheffield Utd v Lincoln

Sheffield Utd

3–0Full time

Lincoln

Championship · SAT 10 OCT · Bramall Lane

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Sheffield Utd 3–0 Lincoln SHEFFIELD UTD WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sheffield Utd win~~48%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.412

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.477

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sheffield Utd win at 48%.
5′Little has changed for our model: Sheffield Utd 48% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–27–25
5′KICK-OFF Sheffield Utd v Lincoln
18′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Sam McCallum · Sheffield Utd
26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Conor McGrandles · Lincoln
42′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Liam Kitching · Sheffield Utd
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Sheffield Utd win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' Sheffield Utd 1–0 Lincoln · Patrick Bamford
45′Patrick Bamford scores for Sheffield Utd on 43′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 78–17–5
45′We said Sheffield Utd at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–17–5
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Sheffield Utd win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
45′HALF-TIME Sheffield Utd 1–0 Lincoln
46′SECOND HALF Sheffield Utd 1–0 Lincoln
54′⚽ GOAL · 52' Sheffield Utd 2–0 Lincoln · Tahith Chong (assist Joe Rothwell)
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Lincoln · On: Mikkel Ladefoged · Off: F. Draper Corrected
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Lincoln · On: Yunus Konak · Off: Conor McGrandles Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Lincoln · On: Chiedozie Ogbene · Off: Ryley Towler Corrected
64′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Sam McCallum · Sheffield Utd
64′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Conor McGrandles · Lincoln
64′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Liam Kitching · Sheffield Utd
64′⚽ GOAL · 43' Sheffield Utd 2–0 Lincoln · Patrick Bamford (assist Sam McCallum)
64′⚽ GOAL · 52' Sheffield Utd 2–0 Lincoln · Tahith Chong (assist Joe Rothwell)
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Lincoln · On: Mikkel Ladefoged · Off: F. Draper Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Lincoln · On: Yunus Konak · Off: Conor McGrandles Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Lincoln · On: Chiedozie Ogbene · Off: Ryley Towler Corrected
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Deji Elerewe · Lincoln
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Japhet Tanganga · Sheffield Utd
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Sheffield Utd · On: Mark McGuinness · Off: Hamza Choudhury Corrected
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Sydie Peck · Sheffield Utd
77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Tom Bayliss · Lincoln
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Sheffield Utd 3–0 Lincoln · Patrick Bamford
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Sheffield Utd · On: Romelle Donovan · Off: Tahith Chong Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Lincoln · On: Callum Elder · Off: Adam Reach Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Lincoln · On: Thomas Hamer · Off: Dom Jefferies Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Sheffield Utd · On: Ryan One · Off: Ben Brereton Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Sheffield Utd · On: Jaïro Riedewald · Off: Joe Rothwell Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Sheffield Utd · On: Tyrese Campbell · Off: Thomas Cannon Corrected
FTFULL TIME Sheffield Utd 3–0 Lincoln
FTSheffield Utd 3–0 Lincoln · Sheffield Utd win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Sheffield Utd win48%

Draw27%

Lincoln win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Bramall Lane

Referee · Josh Smith

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Sheffield Utd

4-2-3-1

1 M. Cooper

8 H. Choudhury

5 J. Tanganga

15 L. Kitching

3 S. McCallum

7 J. Rothwell

42 S. Peck

19 T. Chong

45 P. Bamford

22 B. Brereton Diaz

9 T. Cannon

Coach · Chris Wilder

Substitutes

17 · A. Davies

44 · J. Riedewald

25 · M. McGuinness

14 · H. Burrows

4 · O. Arblaster

10 · J. Ayew

23 · T. Campbell

26 · R. One

11 · R. Donovan

Lincoln

3-4-2-1

1 G. Wickens

25 D. Elerewe

15 S. Bradley

6 R. Towler

16 D. Jefferies

8 T. Bayliss

14 C. McGrandles

3 A. Reach

17 R. Street

18 B. House

34 F. Draper

Coach · Tom Shaw

Substitutes

46 · J. Gauci

20 · C. Elder

22 · T. Hamer

33 · D. Oyegoke

24 · I. Varfolomeev

26 · Y. E. Konak

27 · C. Ogbene

19 · T. Olaofe

11 · M. Ladefoged

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Sheffield Utd

4-2-3-1

1 M. Cooper

8 H. Choudhury

5 J. Tanganga

15 L. Kitching

3 S. McCallum

7 J. Rothwell

42 S. Peck

19 T. Chong

45 P. Bamford

22 B. Brereton Diaz

9 T. Cannon

Coach · Chris Wilder

Substitutes

17 · A. Davies

44 · J. Riedewald

25 · M. McGuinness

14 · H. Burrows

4 · O. Arblaster

10 · J. Ayew

23 · T. Campbell

26 · R. One

11 · R. Donovan

Lincoln

3-4-2-1

1 G. Wickens

25 D. Elerewe

15 S. Bradley

6 R. Towler

16 D. Jefferies

8 T. Bayliss

14 C. McGrandles

3 A. Reach

17 R. Street

18 B. House

34 F. Draper

Coach · Tom Shaw

Substitutes

46 · J. Gauci

20 · C. Elder

22 · T. Hamer

33 · D. Oyegoke

24 · I. Varfolomeev

26 · Y. E. Konak

27 · C. Ogbene

19 · T. Olaofe

11 · M. Ladefoged

Our number · sheffield utd winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

48% The market44%

Us48%

~~Market~~44%

We make Sheffield Utd a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sheffield utd win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 45% to 43% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sheffield Utd win	48%	44%	+4
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Lincoln win	25%	28%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	44%	47%	−3
Both teams to score	48%	52%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	70%	71%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	23%	27%	−4
Sheffield Utd or draw	75%	72%	+3
Sheffield Utd clean sheet	38%	–	–
Lincoln clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 9.3 8.2 4.2 1 12.3 12.7 6.1 2.0 2 9.2 8.9 4.4 3 4.5 4.4 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sheffield Utd down, Lincoln across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,881 Championship matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Sheffield Utd at home: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Lincoln away: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Sheffield Utd, 0.99 for Lincoln. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:33. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Championship

SHEFFIELD UTD

DWLWLL2–2 · 3–2 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–2

LINCOLN

WDDWWL1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea	8	+7	17
2	West Ham	9	+11	16
3	Middlesbrough	8	+4	15
4	Southampton	8	+9	14
5	Wolves	7	+5	14
6	QPR	9	+3	14
7	West Brom	8	+2	14
8	Stoke City	8	+1	13
9	Bristol City	8	−1	13
10	Charlton	8	−3	12
11	Birmingham	8	+1	11
12	Millwall	8	0	11
13	Lincoln	8	−1	11
14	Wrexham	8	−3	10
15	Bolton	8	−4	10
16	Blackburn	8	0	9
17	Norwich	8	−1	9
18	Sheffield Utd	8	−2	9
19	Portsmouth	7	−1	8
20	Watford	8	−3	8
21	Cardiff	8	−2	7
22	Derby	8	−7	5
23	Preston	8	−7	4
24	Burnley	8	−8	4