Sheffield Utd v Derby prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Sheffield Utd 1–1 Derby SHEFFIELD UTD WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Sheffield Utd win~~52%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.879

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.901

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sheffield Utd win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sheffield Utd 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–25–23
1′KICK-OFF Sheffield Utd v Derby
19′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Ryan Nyambe · Derby
38′We said Sheffield Utd at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–27–58
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Sheffield Utd win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Sheffield Utd 0–1 Derby
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Sheffield Utd win: 52% at kick-off, 16% now
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Derby win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Sheffield Utd win 42%)
39′Derby ahead on 37′ through Bobby Clark. 0–1. 0–1 · 16–27–58
39′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 16–27–58
42′We said Sheffield Utd at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–27–59
45′HALF-TIME Sheffield Utd 0–1 Derby
46′SECOND HALF Sheffield Utd 0–1 Derby
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Sheffield Utd win: 52% at kick-off, 12% now
56′We said Sheffield Utd at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–65
57′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Dion Sanderson · Derby
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Sheffield Utd · On: Sydie Peck · Off: Oliver Arblaster
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Sheffield Utd · On: Femi Seriki · Off: Hamza Choudhury
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Liam Kitching · Sheffield Utd
67′Derby are down to ten from 66′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 5–22–73
67′🟥 RED CARD · 66' Dion Sanderson · Derby
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Sheffield Utd · On: Jordan Ayew · Off: Thomas Cannon
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Sheffield Utd · On: Romelle Donovan · Off: Ben Brereton
70′We said Sheffield Utd at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Derby · On: max johnston · Off: Rhian Brewster
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Derby · On: Oscar Fraulo · Off: Henrik Wendel Meister
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Derby · On: Jack Robinson · Off: Sammie Szmodics
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Sheffield Utd win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Sydie Peck · Sheffield Utd
80′Patrick Bamford scores for Sheffield Utd on 79′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 15–76–9
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Sheffield Utd 1–1 Derby
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Sheffield Utd win: 52% at kick-off, 15% now
80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Draw is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Derby win 84%)
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Derby · On: Lars-Jørgen Salvesen · Off: Joe Ward
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Sheffield Utd · On: Tyrese Campbell · Off: Patrick Bamford
89′16 shots for Sheffield Utd, 11 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 6–91–4
92′20 shots for Sheffield Utd, 11 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 3–94–2
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Sheffield Utd win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Bobby Clark · Derby
96′SUBSTITUTION · 90+5' Derby · On: Filip Bilbija · Off: D. Ozoh
FTFULL TIME Sheffield Utd 1–1 Derby
FTSheffield Utd 1–1 Derby · Sheffield Utd win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sheffield Utd are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sheffield Utd 52%, draw 25%, Derby 23%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Sheffield Utd v DerbyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Sheffield Utd win52%

Draw25%

Derby win23%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 12

VenueBramall Lane

RefereeSteve Martin

Line-ups

Sheffield Utd

4-2-3-1

Derby

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sheffield Utd

Derby

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the English Championship

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Sheffield Utd	11	+1	15
23	Derby	11	−11	6

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Henrik Pedersen has done one Sheffield Wednesday thing that Sheffield United couldn’tFootball League World · 24 Oct 08:20 · Sheffield Wednesday, Sheffield Utd

Sheffield United must ready January action as Barnsley situation worsensFootball League World · 24 Oct 08:15 · Sheffield Utd, Barnsley

Major Derby County ‘concern’ raised over ex-West Brom midfielderFootball League World · 24 Oct 07:15 · Derby, West Brom

Derby County fans handed warning ahead of Sheffield UnitedFootball League World · 23 Oct 15:20 · Derby, Sheffield Utd

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sheffield Utd

4-2-3-1

1 M. Cooper

8 H. Choudhury

5 J. Tanganga

15 L. Kitching

14 H. Burrows

27 K. Phillips

4 O. Arblaster

19 T. Chong

9 T. Cannon

22 B. Brereton

45 P. Bamford

Coach · Chris Wilder

Substitutes

10 · J. Ayew

33 · J. Baptiste

23 · T. Campbell

11 · R. Donovan

3 · S. McCallum

42 · Sydie Peck

7 · J. Rothwell

38 · F. Seriki

31 · Tommy Betts

Derby

4-2-3-1

1 J. Widell Zetterström

23 J. Ward

24 R. Nyambe

28 D. Sanderson

26 R. Hedges

8 B. Clark

4 D. Ozoh

10 R. Brewster

11 S. Szmodics

19 H. Meister

9 C. Morris

Coach · J. Eustace

Substitutes

29 · O. Fraulo

16 · M. Fuseini

22 · M. Johnston

20 · A. Mowatt

14 · J. Robinson

15 · L. Salvesen

31 · J. Vickers

33 · C. Blackett-Taylor

13 · F. Bilbija

Our number · sheffield utd winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

52% The market53%

Us52%

~~Market~~53%

We make Sheffield Utd a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sheffield Utd v Derby~~1.61 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 8 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 15 v 6~~11 v 23

~~The market · Sheffield Utd win~~53% · ours 52%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sheffield Utd win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sheffield Utd win	52%	53%	−1
Draw	25%	25%	0
Derby win	23%	22%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	48%	54%	−6
Both teams to score	50%	55%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	73%	76%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	26%	33%	−7
Sheffield Utd or draw	77%	78%	−1
Sheffield Utd clean sheet	38%	–	–
Derby clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 7.8 7.2 3.6 1 11.9 11.9 5.8 2 9.7 9.4 4.6 3 5.2 5.1 2.5 4 2.1 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sheffield Utd down, Derby across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,918 Championship matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.7% of games this season, across 133 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.14 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sheffield Utd at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Derby away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Sheffield Utd, 0.98 for Derby. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 12:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.14

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~DER 1–2 SHE · SHE 1–3 DER · DER 0–1 SHE · SHE 1–0 DER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 8 Sept

SHEFFIELD UTD

WLLWLW2–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 2–3 · 1–0

DERBY

LLDDLL0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Middlesbrough	12	+10	25
2	Swansea	11	+8	23
3	West Ham	11	+18	22
4	Birmingham	11	+9	20
5	West Brom	11	+3	20
6	Stoke City	11	+2	19
7	Wolves	11	+3	18
8	Southampton	11	+11	17
9	QPR	11	+3	17
10	Blackburn	11	+1	15
11	Sheffield Utd	11	+1	15
12	Millwall	11	0	15
13	Portsmouth	11	0	15
14	Wrexham	11	−1	14
15	Bristol City	11	−3	14
16	Charlton	11	−5	14
17	Bolton	12	−7	14
18	Lincoln	11	−10	12
19	Cardiff	11	+1	11
20	Watford	11	−9	11
21	Norwich	11	−4	9
22	Burnley	11	−5	8
23	Derby	11	−11	6
24	Preston	11	−15	4