QPR v Swansea prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

QPR 5–0 Swansea QPR WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said QPR win~~38%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.578

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.568

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said QPR win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: QPR was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–27–35
1′KICK-OFF QPR v Swansea
3′QPR find the net on 2′. 0–0 · 38–28–35
4′We published QPR at 38%. Our model now makes it 65%. 1–0 · 65–20–15
4′⚽ GOAL · 2' QPR 1–0 Swansea · Richard Kone
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' QPR win: 38% at kick-off, 65% now
10′We published QPR at 38%. Our model now makes it 86%. 2–0 · 86–9–4
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' QPR 2–0 Swansea
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' QPR win: 38% at kick-off, 86% now
11′QPR ahead on 10′ through Richard Kone. 2–0. 2–0 · 86–9–4
14′QPR ahead on 9′ through Richard Kone. 2–0. 2–0 · 87–9–4
15′We published QPR at 38%. Our model now makes it 96%. 3–0 · 96–3–1
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' QPR 3–0 Swansea
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' QPR win: 38% at kick-off, 96% now
16′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Lawrence Vigouroux · Swansea
19′Richard Kone scores for QPR on 15′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 97–3–1
22′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Richard Kone · QPR
30′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 97–2–1
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' QPR win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Elijah Just · Swansea
45′HALF-TIME QPR 4–0 Swansea
45′SECOND HALF QPR 4–0 Swansea
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Swansea · On: Jenson Seelt · Off: Stephen Welsh
46′We published QPR at 38%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
46′4 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
46′45′: Jimmy Dunne on the scoresheet for QPR, making it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' QPR 4–0 Swansea
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Swansea · On: Jay Fulton · Off: Elijah Just
55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Marko Stamenić · Swansea
61′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Paul Smyth · QPR
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Swansea · On: Goncalo Franco · Off: Marko Stamenić
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Swansea · On: Eom Ji-Sung · Off: Joseph Amankwaah Opoku
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' QPR · On: Rayan Jawad Kolli · Off: Paul Smyth
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' QPR · On: Karamoko Dembélé · Off: Kwame Poku
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' QPR · On: Koki Saito · Off: Boy Kemper Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Swansea · On: Zan Vipotnik · Off: Adam Idah
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' QPR · On: Dennis Cirkin · Off: Boy Kemper
86′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' QPR 5–0 Swansea
87′QPR ahead on 86′ through Kealey Adamson. 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' QPR · On: Isak Alemayehu Mulugeta · Off: Richard Kone
FTFULL TIME QPR 5–0 Swansea
FTQPR 5–0 Swansea · QPR win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with QPR just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: QPR 38%, draw 27%, Swansea 35%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on QPR v SwanseaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

QPR win38%

Draw27%

Swansea win35%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueLoftus Road

RefereeSam Allison

Line-ups

QPR

4-1-4-1

Swansea

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

QPR

Swansea

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the English Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Swansea	11	+8	23
9	QPR	11	+3	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

QPR

4-1-4-1

1 P. Charles

2 K. Adamson

3 J. Dunne

5 R. Edwards

12 B. Kemper

40 J. Varane

17 K. Poku

20 H. Vale

18 G. Kamara

11 P. Smyth

22 R. Kone

Coach · Julien Stéphan

Substitutes

23 · I. Alemayehu

19 · D. Cirkin

7 · K. Dembélé

26 · Rayan Jawad Kolli

4 · L. Morrison

25 · Justin Patrick Nnamdi Obikwu

14 · K. Saito

13 · C. Ward

33 · Leon Scarlett

Swansea

4-3-3

22 L. Vigouroux

26 F. Lissah

5 B. Cabango

23 S. Welsh

14 J. Tymon

8 E. Just

6 M. Stamenić

46 S. Eustáquio

7 M. Widell

33 A. Idah

30 Joseph Okopu

Coach · Vítor Matos

Substitutes

17 · Gonçalo Franco

4 · J. Fulton

20 · Tiago Parente

3 · J. Seelt

31 · R. Stewart

9 · Z. Vipotnik

1 · A. Fisher

10 · Eom Ji-Sung

12 · J. Monga

Our number · qpr winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

38% The market39%

Us38%

~~Market~~39%

We make QPR a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · QPR v Swansea~~1.31 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 8 Sept~~W1 D4 L1 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 17 v 23~~9 v 2

~~The market · QPR win~~39% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · QPR win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
QPR win	38%	39%	−1
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Swansea win	35%	33%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	47%	49%	−2
Both teams to score	52%	55%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	72%	73%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	25%	29%	−4
QPR or draw	65%	67%	−2
QPR clean sheet	29%	–	–
Swansea clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.1 9.5 6.0 2.5 1 10.0 12.8 7.8 3.2 2 6.7 8.2 5.1 2.1 3 2.9 3.6 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+QPR down, Swansea across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,918 Championship matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.7% of games this season, across 133 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.70 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

QPR at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Swansea away: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for QPR, 1.24 for Swansea. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.70

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~QPR 1–2 SWA · SWA 0–1 QPR · QPR 1–2 SWA · SWA 3–0 QPR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 8 Sept

QPR

DDDDWL0–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 0–3

SWANSEA

LWWWWL1–3 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Middlesbrough	12	+10	25
2	Swansea	11	+8	23
3	West Ham	11	+18	22
4	Birmingham	11	+9	20
5	West Brom	11	+3	20
6	Stoke City	11	+2	19
7	Wolves	11	+3	18
8	Southampton	11	+11	17
9	QPR	11	+3	17
10	Blackburn	11	+1	15
11	Sheffield Utd	11	+1	15
12	Millwall	11	0	15
13	Portsmouth	11	0	15
14	Wrexham	11	−1	14
15	Bristol City	11	−3	14
16	Charlton	11	−5	14
17	Bolton	12	−7	14
18	Lincoln	11	−10	12
19	Cardiff	11	+1	11
20	Watford	11	−9	11
21	Norwich	11	−4	9
22	Burnley	11	−5	8
23	Derby	11	−11	6
24	Preston	11	−15	4