QPR v Derby prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 22:18

QPR 4–1 Derby QPR WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said QPR win~~41%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.526

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.285

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said QPR win at 41%.
0′Much as we predicted: QPR was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–27–32
1′KICK-OFF QPR v Derby
11′SUBSTITUTION · 12' Derby · On: Ryan Nyambe · Off: Sondre Langas
18′QPR ahead on 18′ through Alfie Lloyd. 1–0. 1–0 · 69–20–11
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' QPR 1–0 Derby · Alfie Lloyd
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' QPR win: 41% at kick-off, 69% now
19′We published QPR at 41%. Our model now makes it 69%. 1–0 · 69–20–11
21′We published QPR at 41%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–10
22′Nicolas Madsen scores for QPR on 22′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 90–8–3
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' QPR 2–0 Derby · Nicolas Madsen
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' QPR win: 41% at kick-off, 90% now
22′🟨 YELLOW · 24' D. Ozoh · Derby
23′We published QPR at 41%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–0 · 90–8–3
27′🟨 YELLOW · 29' John Eustace · Derby
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' QPR win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
28′🟨 YELLOW · 28' John Eustace · Derby
43′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Sammie Szmodics · Derby
44′45′ and it is 3–0: Harvey Vale on the scoresheet for QPR. 3–0 · 99–1–0
44′⚽ GOAL · 45' QPR 3–0 Derby · Harvey Vale
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Derby · On: Lewis Travis · Off: D. Ozoh
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Derby · On: Henrik Wendel Meister · Off: Mohammed Fuseini
45′SECOND HALF QPR 3–0 Derby
46′We published QPR at 41%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
47′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 99–1–0
55′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Henrik Wendel Meister · Derby
55′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Carlton Morris · Derby
56′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Harvey Vale · QPR
59′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Glen Kamara · QPR
60′We published QPR at 41%. Our model now makes it 100%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' QPR · On: Richard Kone · Off: Rayan Jawad Kolli
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' QPR · On: Jonathan Varane · Off: Alfie Lloyd
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' QPR · On: Kwame Poku · Off: Harvey Vale
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Derby · On: Lars-Jørgen Salvesen · Off: Carlton Morris
68′QPR ahead on 68′ through Paul Smyth. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' QPR 4–0 Derby · Paul Smyth
68′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Derby · On: Filip Bilbija · Off: Sammie Szmodics
69′4 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' QPR · On: Amadou Salif Mbengue · Off: Boy Kemper
72′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Henrik Wendel Meister · Derby
76′SUBSTITUTION · 77' QPR · On: Leon Scarlett · Off: Paul Smyth
93′Derby have had 14.0 attempts to 9.0 and it is still 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
99′⚽ GOAL · 100' QPR 4–1 Derby · Lars-Jørgen Salvesen
100′Lars-Jørgen Salvesen scores for Derby on 90′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME QPR 4–1 Derby
FTQPR 4–1 Derby · QPR win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

QPR are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: QPR 41%, draw 27%, Derby 32%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on QPR v DerbyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 19:18 · locked at kick-off

QPR win41%

Draw27%

Derby win32%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 19:45

VenueLoftus Road

RefereeMatthew Corlett

Line-ups

QPR

4-2-3-1

Derby

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

QPR

Derby

5Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	QPR	9	3	14
23	Derby	9	-7	6

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Derby County can make Birmingham City jealous despite Liam Millar blowFootball League World · 1 day ago · Derby, Birmingham

New Josh Windass update emerges ahead of Wrexham v West BromFootball League World · 1 day ago · Wrexham, West Brom, Derby

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

QPR

4-2-3-1

1 P. Charles

2 K. Adamson

3 J. Dunne

5 R. Edwards

12 B. Kemper

24 N. Madsen

18 G. Kamara

11 P. Smyth

20 H. Vale

15 A. Lloyd

26 R. Kolli

Coach · Julien Stephan

Substitutes

13 · C. Ward

4 · L. Morrison

27 · A. S. Mbengue

6 · J. Clarke-Salter

40 · J. Varane

17 · K. Poku

23 · I. Alemayehu Mulugeta

33 · L. Scarlett

22 · R. Kone

Derby

4-2-3-1

31 J. Vickers

23 J. Ward

6 S. Langas

28 D. Sanderson

26 R. Hedges

4 D. Ozoh

20 A. Mowatt

16 M. Fuseini

8 B. Clark

11 S. Szmodics

9 C. Morris

Coach · John Eustace

Substitutes

12 · R. O'Donnell

24 · R. Nyambe

27 · L. Travis

29 · O. Fraulo

33 · C. Blackett-Taylor

13 · F. Bilbija

19 · H. Meister

15 · L. Salvesen

10 · R. Brewster

Our number · qpr winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 19:18 · locked at kick-off

41% The market57%

Us41%

~~Market~~57%

We make QPR a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · QPR v Derby~~1.34 – 1.15

~~Last six in Championship~~W1 D4 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 14 v 6~~8 v 23

~~The market · QPR win~~57% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · qpr win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
QPR win	41%	57%	−16
Draw	27%	24%	+3
Derby win	32%	19%	+13
Over 2.5 goals	45%	51%	−6
Both teams to score	51%	52%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	71%	74%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	24%	30%	−6
QPR or draw	68%	81%	−13
QPR clean sheet	32%	–	–
Derby clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 8.6 9.2 5.5 2.1 1 10.8 12.9 7.3 2.8 2 7.4 8.5 4.9 3 3.3 3.8 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+QPR down, Derby across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,900 Championship matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.6% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

QPR at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Derby away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for QPR, 1.15 for Derby. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 14 Oct 19:16. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~QPR 2–3 DER · DER 1–0 QPR · QPR 4–0 DER · DER 2–0 QPR

Form · last six in Championship

QPR

WLDDDD2–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1

DERBY

WLLLDD2–0 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea	10	9	23
2	Middlesbrough	10	6	21
3	Birmingham	10	6	17
4	West Brom	10	2	17
5	West Ham	9	11	16
6	Stoke City	10	1	16
7	Blackburn	10	2	15
8	QPR	9	3	14
9	Wolves	9	2	14
10	Millwall	10	0	14
11	Bristol City	10	-2	14
12	Charlton	10	-3	14
13	Southampton	9	10	13
14	Bolton	10	-3	13
15	Sheffield Utd	9	1	12
16	Wrexham	10	-4	11
17	Lincoln	9	-4	11
18	Cardiff	10	1	10
19	Norwich	9	-2	9
20	Portsmouth	8	-2	8
21	Burnley	10	-4	8
22	Watford	10	-11	8
23	Derby	9	-7	6
24	Preston	10	-12	4