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Preston v West Brom

Preston
1–1Full time
West Brom

Championship · SAT 24 OCT · Deepdale Stadium

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
Preston 1–1 West Brom WEST BROM WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said West Brom win39%
The market said47%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.772
The market’s Brier score0.824

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 22 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said West Brom win at 39%.
  2. 2′Little has changed for our model: West Brom 39% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 33–29–38
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Preston v West Brom
  4. 34′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Harry Whitwell · West Brom
  5. 35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was West Brom win 35%)
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Preston 0–0 West Brom
  7. 45′SECOND HALF Preston 0–0 West Brom
  8. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Preston · On: Andrew Moran · Off: Alfie Devine
  9. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' West Brom win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
  10. 54′We said West Brom at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 24–48–27
  11. 61′We said West Brom at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 22–54–24
  12. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' West Brom · On: J. Morgan · Off: Harry Whitwell
  13. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' West Brom · On: Aune Heggebo · Off: Barney Stewart
  14. 64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Andrew Moran · Preston
  15. 70′We said West Brom at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 17–63–19
  16. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' West Brom win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
  17. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Preston · On: Callum Lang · Off: Brad Potts
  18. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Preston · On: Jusef Erabi · Off: Johnny Kenny
  19. 77′We said West Brom at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 13–73–14
  20. 78′We said West Brom at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 1–0 · 87–12–1
  21. 78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Preston 1–0 West Brom
  22. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' West Brom win: 39% at kick-off, 1% now
  23. 78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Preston win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 75%)
  24. 79′Andrew Hughes scores for Preston on 78′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 88–11–1
  25. 82′We said West Brom at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–82–9
  26. 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Preston 1–1 West Brom
  27. 82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Draw is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Preston win 91%)
  28. 83′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–1 · 8–84–8
  29. 83′82′: Aune Heggebo on the scoresheet for West Brom, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 8–84–8
  30. 84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Graham Alexander · Preston
  31. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' West Brom · On: Kareem Tunde · Off: Felix Horn Myhre
  32. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' West Brom · On: Rabby Nzingoula · Off: Ousmane·Diakite
  33. FTFULL TIME Preston 1–1 West Brom
  34. FTPreston 1–1 West Brom · West Brom win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

West Brom are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Preston 33%, draw 28%, West Brom 39%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Preston v West BromBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Preston win33%
Draw28%
West Brom win39%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueDeepdale Stadium

RefereeElliot Bell

Line-ups

Preston

4-2-3-1

West Brom

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Preston

West Brom

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the English Championship

Last match: 17 Oct · the English Championship

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5West Brom11+320
24Preston11−154

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Preston

4-2-3-1

1 D. Iversen

24 O. Offiah

14 J. Storey

16 A. Hughes

3 A. Vukčević

44 B. Potts

27 L. Leroy

17 S. Mills

7 A. Devine

37 D. Burgzorg

38 J. Kenny

Coach · G. Alexander

Substitutes

9 · J. Erabi

35 · Isaac Irwin

10 · C. Lang

23 · A. Moran

21 · L. Nicholls

11 · T. Small

2 · Pol Valentín

12 · C. Wiley

32 · Ed Nolan

West Brom

4-4-2

1 M. O’Leary

18 B. Pereira

2 C. Mepham

6 G. Campbell

4 C. Styles

29 Harry Whitwell

8 J. Molumby

17 O. Diakité

21 I. Price

7 F. Myhre

9 B. Stewart

Coach · J. Morrison

Substitutes

13 · M. Ingram

11 · J. Morgan

20 · R. Nzingoula

3 · N. Phillips

22 · C. Townsend

26 · K. Tunde

19 · A. Heggebø

23 · T. Bany

35 · Matthew Crowther

Our number · west brom winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
39% The market47%
Us39%
Market47%

We make West Brom a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Preston v West Brom1.12 – 1.23
Form · last six in Championship this season · since 8 SeptW0 D1 L5 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 4 v 2024 v 5
The market · West Brom win47% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:15
Our probability · West Brom win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Preston win33%26%+7
Draw28%27%+1
West Brom win39%47%−8
Over 2.5 goals42%51%−9
Both teams to score48%54%−6
Over 1.5 goals68%74%−6
Over 3.5 goals21%30%−9
Preston or draw61%53%+8
Preston clean sheet29%––
West Brom clean sheet33%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%
0123450 9.8 11.6 7.2 3.0 1 10.5 13.2 8.0 3.3 2 6.0 7.3 4.5 3 2.2 2.7 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Preston down, West Brom across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.54 of 10
Both scored4 of 10
Last meetingsPRE 0–2 WES · WES 2–1 PRE · WES 3–1 PRE · PRE 1–1 WES

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 8 Sept

PRESTON

LLDLLL1–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–4 · 1–4

WEST BROM

WDLLWW1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Middlesbrough12+1025
2Swansea11+823
3West Ham11+1822
4Birmingham11+920
5West Brom11+320
6Stoke City11+219
7Wolves11+318
8Southampton11+1117
9QPR11+317
10Blackburn11+115
11Sheffield Utd11+115
12Millwall11015
13Portsmouth11015
14Wrexham11−114
15Bristol City11−314
16Charlton11−514
17Bolton12−714
18Lincoln11−1012
19Cardiff11+111
20Watford11−911
21Norwich11−49
22Burnley11−58
23Derby11−116
24Preston11−154

The competition's standings before kick-off.