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Preston v Millwall

Preston

0–1Full time

Millwall

Championship · SAT 10 OCT · Deepdale Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Preston 0–1 Millwall MILLWALL WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Millwall win~~37%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.600

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.534

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Millwall win at 37%.
3′Millwall find the net on 3′. 0–0. 0–0 · 35–28–37
3′KICK-OFF Preston v Millwall
11′Much as we predicted: Millwall was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 34–30–36
21′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Jenson Metcalfe · Millwall
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Millwall win 32%)
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Preston · On: Pol Valentin · Off: Harry Clarke Corrected
46′SECOND HALF Preston 0–0 Millwall
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Preston · On: Delano Burgzorg · Off: Callum Lang Corrected
60′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Leo Leroy · Preston
60′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Jenson Metcalfe · Millwall
60′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Preston · On: Pol Valentin · Off: Harry Clarke Corrected
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Preston · On: Delano Burgzorg · Off: Callum Lang Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Millwall · On: Tristan Crama · Off: Ryan Leonard Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Millwall · On: Luke Cundle · Off: Kyrell Lisbie Corrected
70′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Derek Mazou Sacko · Millwall
71′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Preston · On: Thierry Small · Off: Andrija Vukčević Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Millwall · On: Mark Sykes · Off: Taïryk Arconte Corrected
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Preston 0–0 Millwall · Camiel Neghli
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Preston 0–1 Millwall · Camiel Neghli
FTFULL TIME Preston 0–1 Millwall
FTPreston 0–1 Millwall · Millwall win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Preston win35%

Draw29%

Millwall win37%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Bolton & Millwall should move for Swansea City ace in 2027Football League World · 7 hours ago · Bolton, Millwall, Swansea, Wanderers

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Deepdale Stadium

Referee · Ben Speedie

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Preston

3-4-1-2

1 D. Iversen

24 O. Offiah

14 J. Storey

16 A. Hughes

4 H. Clarke

27 L. Leroy

15 J. Thompson

3 A. Vukcevic

7 A. Devine

9 J. Erabi

10 C. Lang

Coach · Graham Alexander

Substitutes

21 · L. Nicholls

6 · L. Lindsay

2 · P. Valentin

11 · T. Small

23 · A. Moran

20 · L. Gibbs

37 · D. Burgzorg

30 · G. Gryba

Millwall

4-2-3-1

34 F. Marschall

18 R. Leonard

6 C. Taylor

5 J. Cooper

3 Z. Sturge

49 D. Mazou-Sacko

14 J. Metcalfe

22 K. Lisbie

13 L. Dykes

10 C. Neghli

7 T. Arconte

Coach · Alex Neil

Substitutes

15 · M. Crocombe

23 · D. Batth

4 · T. Crama

2 · J. Osei-Tutu

25 · L. Cundle

17 · M. Sykes

45 · A. Doughty

29 · Z. Lovelace

35 · Y. Issoufou

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Preston

3-4-1-2

1 D. Iversen

24 O. Offiah

14 J. Storey

16 A. Hughes

4 H. Clarke

27 L. Leroy

15 J. Thompson

3 A. Vukcevic

7 A. Devine

9 J. Erabi

10 C. Lang

Coach · Graham Alexander

Substitutes

21 · L. Nicholls

6 · L. Lindsay

2 · P. Valentin

11 · T. Small

23 · A. Moran

20 · L. Gibbs

37 · D. Burgzorg

30 · G. Gryba

Millwall

4-2-3-1

34 F. Marschall

18 R. Leonard

6 C. Taylor

5 J. Cooper

3 Z. Sturge

49 D. Mazou-Sacko

14 J. Metcalfe

22 K. Lisbie

13 L. Dykes

10 C. Neghli

7 T. Arconte

Coach · Alex Neil

Substitutes

15 · M. Crocombe

23 · D. Batth

4 · T. Crama

2 · J. Osei-Tutu

25 · L. Cundle

17 · M. Sykes

45 · A. Doughty

29 · Z. Lovelace

35 · Y. Issoufou

Our number · millwall winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

37% The market40%

Us37%

~~Market~~40%

We make Millwall a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · millwall win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 39% to 40% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Preston win	35%	32%	+2
Draw	29%	27%	+1
Millwall win	37%	40%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	42%	54%	−11
Both teams to score	49%	58%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	69%	76%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	22%	33%	−12
Preston or draw	63%	60%	+4
Preston clean sheet	30%	–	–
Millwall clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 9.8 10.9 6.8 2.8 1 10.4 13.4 7.9 3.2 2 6.3 7.6 4.6 3 2.5 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Preston down, Millwall across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,881 Championship matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.40 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Preston at home: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Millwall away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Preston, 1.21 for Millwall. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:33. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PRE 0–2 MIL · MIL 1–1 PRE · PRE 1–1 MIL · MIL 3–1 PRE

Form · last six in Championship

PRESTON

LLWLLD0–1 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–2

MILLWALL

LLWLDD1–5 · 0–3 · 4–0 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea	8	+7	17
2	West Ham	9	+11	16
3	Middlesbrough	8	+4	15
4	Southampton	8	+9	14
5	Wolves	7	+5	14
6	QPR	9	+3	14
7	West Brom	8	+2	14
8	Stoke City	8	+1	13
9	Bristol City	8	−1	13
10	Charlton	8	−3	12
11	Birmingham	8	+1	11
12	Millwall	8	0	11
13	Lincoln	8	−1	11
14	Wrexham	8	−3	10
15	Bolton	8	−4	10
16	Blackburn	8	0	9
17	Norwich	8	−1	9
18	Sheffield Utd	8	−2	9
19	Portsmouth	7	−1	8
20	Watford	8	−3	8
21	Cardiff	8	−2	7
22	Derby	8	−7	5
23	Preston	8	−7	4
24	Burnley	8	−8	4