Portsmouth v Millwall

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Portsmouth win at 37%.
2. 2′Much as we predicted: Portsmouth was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–28–35
3. 2′KICK-OFF Portsmouth v Millwall
4. 6′We said Portsmouth at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–21–64
5. 6′Millwall ahead on 6′ through Jenson Metcalfe. 0–1. 0–1 · 15–21–64
6. 6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Portsmouth 0–1 Millwall
7. 6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' Portsmouth win: 37% at kick-off, 15% now
8. 6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Millwall win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Portsmouth win 36%)
9. 10′We said Portsmouth at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–21–64
10. 16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Portsmouth 1–1 Millwall
11. 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Portsmouth win: 37% at kick-off, 35% now
12. 17′An own goal by Millwall's Tristan Crama on 16′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 35–32–34
13. 24′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Tristan Crama · Millwall
14. 33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Millwall win 65%)
15. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Jake Cooper · Millwall
16. 45′HALF-TIME Portsmouth 1–1 Millwall
17. 45′SECOND HALF Portsmouth 1–1 Millwall
18. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Portsmouth win: 37% at kick-off, 27% now
19. 57′We said Portsmouth at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 1–1 · 25–50–25
20. 60′We said Portsmouth at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–52–23
21. 60′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–1 · 24–52–23
22. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Portsmouth · On: Ebou Adams · Off: Adrian Segecic
23. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Portsmouth · On: Tyrese Shade · Off: Ryan Kavuma-McQueen
24. 64′9 shots for Millwall, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 22–56–22
25. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Millwall · On: Mihailo·Ivanovic · Off: Lyndon Dykes
26. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Millwall · On: Romain Esse · Off: Kyrell Lisbie
27. 71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Marko Milovanović · Portsmouth
28. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Portsmouth win: 37% at kick-off, 17% now
29. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Portsmouth · On: Thomas Waddingham · Off: Marko Milovanović
30. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Millwall · On: Ryan Leonard · Off: Tristan Crama
31. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Millwall · On: Alfie Doughty · Off: Luke Cundle
32. 82′We said Portsmouth at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–82–9
33. 83′We published Portsmouth at 37%. Our model now makes it 92%. 2–1 · 92–8–0
34. 83′82′: Thomas Waddingham on the scoresheet for Portsmouth, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 92–8–0
35. 83′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 92–8–0
36. 83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Portsmouth 2–1 Millwall
37. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Portsmouth win: 37% at kick-off, 92% now
38. 83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Portsmouth win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 82%)
39. 87′We published Portsmouth at 37%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
40. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Millwall · On: D. Kelly · Off: Jenson Metcalfe
41. 90′Full time, 2–1. We called Portsmouth at 37% — that one lands. 2–1 · 100–0–0
42. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Portsmouth win: 37% at kick-off, 97% now
43. FTFULL TIME Portsmouth 2–1 Millwall
44. FTPortsmouth 2–1 Millwall · Portsmouth win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.