Norwich v Portsmouth prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Norwich 0–1 Portsmouth NORWICH WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Norwich win~~51%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.884

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.911

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Norwich win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Norwich 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–24–25
1′KICK-OFF Norwich v Portsmouth
8′Little has changed for our model: Norwich 51% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–25–25
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Norwich win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
45′HALF-TIME Norwich 0–0 Portsmouth
45′SECOND HALF Norwich 0–0 Portsmouth
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Norwich · On: Darlin Yongwa · Off: Benjamin Chrisene
48′We said Norwich at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–38–22
51′Marko Milovanović scores for Portsmouth on 51′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–26–62
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Norwich 0–1 Portsmouth · Marko Milovanović (penalty)
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Norwich win: 51% at kick-off, 12% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Portsmouth win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Norwich win 12%)
52′We said Norwich at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–26–62
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Norwich win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Marko Milovanović · Portsmouth
59′We said Norwich at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Norwich · On: Lucien Mahovo · Off: Andre Brooks
59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Norwich · On: Paris Maghoma · Off: Anis Ben Slimane
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Portsmouth · On: Ebou Adams · Off: Iyad Mohamed
65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Ryan Kavuma-McQueen · Portsmouth
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Oscar Schwartau · Norwich
71′We said Norwich at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Portsmouth · On: Odin Bailey · Off: Ryan Kavuma-McQueen
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Portsmouth · On: Tyrese Shade · Off: Marko Milovanović
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Norwich · On: Mathias Kvistgaarden · Off: Oscar Schwartau
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Norwich win: 51% at kick-off, 1% now
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Portsmouth · On: Terry Devlin · Off: Marlon Pack
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Mathias Kvistgaarden · Norwich
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Darlin Yongwa · Norwich
FTFULL TIME Norwich 0–1 Portsmouth
FTNorwich 0–1 Portsmouth · Norwich win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Norwich are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Norwich 51%, draw 24%, Portsmouth 25%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Norwich v PortsmouthBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Norwich win51%

Draw24%

Portsmouth win25%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueCarrow Road

RefereeGavin Ward

Line-ups

Norwich

4-2-3-1

Portsmouth

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Norwich

Portsmouth

3Days since last match3

Last match: 14 Oct · the English Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Portsmouth	9	−1	11
20	Norwich	10	−3	9

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Norwich City must have one eye on Steven Gerrard, Wrexham twistFootball League World · 16 Oct 17:30 · Norwich, Wrexham

Mo Toure drops new Norwich City future claim after Hull City & Porto linksFootball League World · 16 Oct 10:57 · Norwich, Hull City, FC Porto

''He's a joke' - Conor Chaplin reacts to Portsmouth player's performance v Sheffield UnitedFootball League World · 15 Oct 09:35 · Portsmouth, Sheffield Utd

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Norwich

4-2-3-1

32 D. Grimshaw

3 J. Stacey

15 R. McConville

33 J. Cordoba

14 B. Chrisene

16 J. Wright

7 P. Mattsson

11 A. Brooks

20 A. Slimane

29 O. Schwartau

24 J. Makama

Coach · Philippe Clement

Substitutes

40 · C. Ansen

6 · H. Darling

13 · D. Yongwa

12 · L. Mahovo

25 · P. Maghoma

35 · K. Fisher

26 · S. Field

30 · M. Kvistgaarden

46 · E. Mundle Smith

Portsmouth

4-2-3-1

1 N. Schmid

22 Z. Swanson

5 R. Poole

55 M. Dia

16 J. Meghoma

7 M. Pack

37 I. Mohamed

11 A. Kamara

10 A. Segecic

25 R. Kavuma McQueen

29 Marezi

Coach · John Mousinho

Substitutes

30 · B. Killip

31 · D. Bielica

38 · E. Adams

27 · O. Bailey

19 · R. R. Shein

24 · T. Devlin

9 · C. Bishop

17 · T. Shade

32 · E. Kenny

Our number · norwich winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:36 · locked at kick-off

51% The market51%

Us51%

~~Market~~51%

We make Norwich a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.8–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Norwich v Portsmouth~~1.78 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 1 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 11~~20 v 16

~~The market · Norwich win~~51% · ours 51%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Norwich win The market, margin stripped

Published at 52%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Norwich win	51%	51%	0
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Portsmouth win	25%	24%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	56%	54%	+2
Both teams to score	57%	56%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	76%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	34%	33%	+1
Norwich or draw	75%	76%	−1
Norwich clean sheet	31%	–	–
Portsmouth clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.6 6.0 3.6 1 9.2 11.1 6.3 2.5 2 8.3 9.6 5.6 2.2 3 4.9 5.7 3.3 4 2.2 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Norwich down, Portsmouth across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,905 Championship matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.3% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Norwich at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Portsmouth away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.78 goals for Norwich, 1.16 for Portsmouth. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~NOR 1–1 POR · POR 1–2 NOR · NOR 3–5 POR · POR 0–0 NOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 1 Sept

NORWICH

WWLLLL3–1 · 2–1 · 3–4 · 3–4 · 1–2 · 0–1

PORTSMOUTH

LWDDLW0–2 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea	10	+9	23
2	Middlesbrough	10	+6	21
3	West Ham	10	+17	19
4	Birmingham	10	+6	17
5	QPR	10	+6	17
6	Wolves	10	+3	17
7	West Brom	10	+2	17
8	Southampton	10	+11	16
9	Stoke City	10	+1	16
10	Blackburn	10	+2	15
11	Millwall	10	0	14
12	Bristol City	10	−2	14
13	Charlton	10	−3	14
14	Bolton	10	−3	13
15	Sheffield Utd	10	0	12
16	Portsmouth	9	−1	11
17	Wrexham	10	−4	11
18	Lincoln	10	−10	11
19	Cardiff	10	+1	10
20	Norwich	10	−3	9
21	Burnley	11	−5	8
22	Watford	10	−11	8
23	Derby	10	−10	6
24	Preston	10	−12	4