Millwall v Swansea prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Millwall 0–1 Swansea MILLWALL WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Millwall win~~44%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.785

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.686

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Millwall win at 44%.
0′Little has changed for our model: Millwall 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–27–29
1′KICK-OFF Millwall v Swansea
15′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Jay Fulton · Swansea
22′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Derek Mazou Sacko · Millwall
22′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Swansea
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Millwall win 35%)
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Lyndon Dykes · Millwall
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Millwall win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
45′SECOND HALF Millwall 0–0 Swansea
51′We said Millwall at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 32–45–23
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.4 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 34–42–24
57′We said Millwall at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–50–21
64′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Zak Sturge · Millwall
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Millwall · On: Tristan Crama · Off: Jordi Osei-Tutu Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Millwall · On: Luke Cundle · Off: Jenson Metcalfe Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Millwall · On: Yanis Ali Issoufou · Off: Kyrell Lisbie Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Swansea · On: Ross Stewart · Off: Zan Vipotnik Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Swansea · On: melker widell · Off: Elijah Just Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Swansea · On: Goncalo Franco · Off: Jay Fulton Corrected
66′We said Millwall at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–58–18
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Millwall win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
76′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Swansea · On: Stephen Welsh · Off: Jenson Seelt Corrected
82′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Filip Lissah · Swansea
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Millwall · On: Alfie Doughty · Off: Mark Sykes Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Swansea · On: Ronald Pereira Martins · Off: Moussa Kounfolo Yeo Corrected
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Millwall 0–1 Swansea
91′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Millwall · On: D. Kelly · Off: Camiel Neghli Corrected
93′90′ and it is 0–1: Ronald Pereira Martins on the scoresheet for Swansea. 0–1 · 0–2–98
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 93' Millwall win: 44% at kick-off, 0% now
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 93' Swansea win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
95′We said Millwall at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 0%. 0–1 · 0–1–99
FTFULL TIME Millwall 0–1 Swansea
FTMillwall 0–1 Swansea · Millwall win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Millwall win44%

Draw28%

Swansea win28%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

VenueThe Den

RefereeEdward Duckworth

Line-ups

Millwall

4-1-4-1

Swansea

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Millwall

Swansea

3Days since last match3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea	9	+8	20
9	Millwall	9	+1	14

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Millwall

4-1-4-1

34 F. Marschall

2 J. Osei-Tutu

6 C. Taylor

5 J. Cooper

3 Z. Sturge

49 D. Mazou-Sacko

17 M. Sykes

14 J. Metcalfe

10 C. Neghli

22 K. Lisbie

13 L. Dykes

Coach · Alex Neil

Substitutes

15 · M. Crocombe

18 · R. Leonard

4 · T. Crama

12 · E. Baggott

25 · L. Cundle

45 · A. Doughty

16 · D. Kelly

29 · Z. Lovelace

35 · Y. Issoufou

Swansea

4-3-3

22 L. Vigouroux

26 F. Lissah

5 B. Cabango

3 J. Seelt

14 J. Tymon

8 E. Just

4 J. Fulton

6 M. Stamenic

49 M. K. Yeo

9 Z. Vipotnik

30 J. Opoku

Coach · Vitor Emanuel Soares Matos

Substitutes

1 · A. Fisher

23 · S. Welsh

17 · G. Franco

10 · Eom Ji-Sung

7 · M. Widell

16 · T. Iorpenda

33 · A. Idah

35 · Ronald

31 · R. Stewart

Our number · millwall winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

44% The market41%

Us44%

~~Market~~41%

We make Millwall a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · millwall win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 40% to 41% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Millwall win	44%	41%	+3
Draw	28%	28%	−1
Swansea win	28%	31%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	43%	47%	−3
Both teams to score	48%	53%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	70%	71%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	23%	26%	−3
Millwall or draw	72%	69%	+3
Millwall clean sheet	35%	–	–
Swansea clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 9.4 9.0 4.9 1 11.9 13.0 6.6 2.3 2 8.4 8.7 4.5 3 3.9 4.0 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Millwall down, Swansea across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,892 Championship matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.7% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 1.90 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Millwall at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Swansea away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Millwall, 1.04 for Swansea. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 13 Oct 19:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MIL 2–1 SWA · SWA 1–1 MIL · MIL 1–0 SWA · SWA 0–1 MIL

Form · last six in Championship

MILLWALL

LWLDDW0–3 · 4–0 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 1–0

SWANSEA

WDLWWW2–0 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea	9	+8	20
2	Middlesbrough	9	+5	18
3	Southampton	9	+10	17
4	West Ham	9	+11	16
5	Stoke City	9	+2	16
6	Wolves	8	+4	14
7	QPR	9	+3	14
8	Birmingham	9	+2	14
9	Millwall	9	+1	14
10	West Brom	9	+1	14
11	Bristol City	9	−1	14
12	Charlton	9	−3	13
13	Blackburn	9	+1	12
14	Sheffield Utd	9	+1	12
15	Wrexham	9	−3	11
16	Lincoln	9	−4	11
17	Bolton	9	−5	10
18	Norwich	9	−2	9
19	Portsmouth	8	−2	8
20	Watford	9	−7	8
21	Cardiff	9	−3	7
22	Burnley	9	−4	7
23	Derby	9	−7	6
24	Preston	9	−8	4