Millwall v Lincoln

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Millwall win at 50%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Millwall was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–27–23
3. 1′KICK-OFF Millwall v Lincoln
4. 2′Lincoln ahead on 1′ through Andrei Coubiș. 0–1. 0–1 · 25–25–50
5. 2′We said Millwall at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 0–1 · 25–25–50
6. 2′⚽ GOAL · 1' Millwall 0–1 Lincoln · Andrei Coubiș
7. 2′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 2' Millwall win: 50% at kick-off, 25% now
8. 2′THE CALL SWINGS · 2' Lincoln win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Millwall win 25%)
9. 4′We said Millwall at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–25–51
10. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Millwall win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
11. 22′We said Millwall at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–26–55
12. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 17–26–57
13. 34′Robert Nicholas Street scores for Lincoln on 33′. 0–1 · 16–26–58
14. 35′We said Millwall at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–11–85
15. 35′⚽ GOAL · 33' Millwall 0–2 Lincoln · Robert Nicholas Street (assist Sonny Bradley)
16. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Millwall win: 50% at kick-off, 4% now
17. 36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Tristan Crama · Millwall
18. 42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' F. Draper · Lincoln
19. 45′HALF-TIME Millwall 0–2 Lincoln
20. 45′SECOND HALF Millwall 0–2 Lincoln
21. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Millwall · On: Max Crocombe · Off: Filip Marshall
22. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Millwall · On: Luke Cundle · Off: Mark Sykes
23. 47′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Robert Nicholas Street · Lincoln
24. 63′We said Millwall at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 1–2 · 6–23–71
25. 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Millwall 1–2 Lincoln
26. 64′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 6–23–72
27. 64′63′: Kyrell Lisbie on the scoresheet for Millwall, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 6–23–72
28. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Lincoln · On: Daniel Oyegoke · Off: Reeco Hackett-Fairchild
29. 70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Andrei Coubiș · Lincoln
30. 73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Kyrell Lisbie · Millwall
31. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Millwall · On: Romain Esse · Off: Jenson Metcalfe
32. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Millwall · On: Ryan Leonard · Off: Tristan Crama
33. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Lincoln · On: Ryley Towler · Off: Adam Reach
34. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Lincoln · On: Callum Elder · Off: Dom Jefferies
35. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Millwall · On: Zakariya Lovelace · Off: Kyrell Lisbie
36. 82′We said Millwall at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 2–2 · 11–82–7
37. 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Millwall 2–2 Lincoln
38. 82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Draw is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Lincoln win 7%)
39. 83′4 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 10–84–6
40. 83′Millwall level it on 82′ through Jake Cooper. 2–2. 2–2 · 10–84–6
41. 84′🟥 RED CARD · 84' Lincoln
42. 85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Deji Elerewe · Lincoln
43. 86′A red card for Lincoln on 84′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–2 · 8–88–5
44. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Zak Sturge · Millwall
45. 89′Millwall have had 14 attempts to 9 and it is still 2–2. 2–2 · 5–91–3
46. 90′Full time, 2–2. We called Millwall at 50% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 2–2 · 0–100–0
47. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Ryan Leonard · Millwall
48. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Callum Elder · Lincoln
49. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Camiel Neghli · Millwall
50. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Lincoln · On: Mikkel Ladefoged · Off: F. Draper
51. 96′Millwall have had 16 attempts to 9 and it is still 2–2. 2–2 · 2–97–1
52. FTFULL TIME Millwall 2–2 Lincoln
53. FTMillwall 2–2 Lincoln · Millwall win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.