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Middlesbrough v Wolves

Middlesbrough

1–0Full time

Wolves

Championship · SAT 10 OCT · Riverside Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Middlesbrough 1–0 Wolves MIDDLESBROUGH WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Middlesbrough win~~47%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.420

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.467

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Middlesbrough win at 47%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Middlesbrough 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–24–28
2′KICK-OFF Middlesbrough v Wolves
12′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Sebastian Berhalter · Middlesbrough
12′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Yacouba Nasser Djiga · Wolves
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Neto Borges · Middlesbrough
45′HALF-TIME Middlesbrough 0–0 Wolves
45′SECOND HALF Middlesbrough 0–0 Wolves
50′SUBSTITUTION · 51' Wolves · On: Rafiki Said Ahamada · Off: Rodrigo Gomes Corrected
53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Rafiki Said Ahamada · Wolves
56′⚽ GOAL · 57' Middlesbrough 1–0 Wolves · will lankshear
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Wolves · On: Jordan James · Off: Marshall Munetsi Corrected
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Wolves · On: Jean-Ricner Bellegarde · Off: Thomas Doyle Corrected
61′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Sebastian Berhalter · Middlesbrough
61′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Yacouba Nasser Djiga · Wolves
61′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Neto Borges · Middlesbrough
61′SUBSTITUTION · 51' Wolves · On: Rafiki Said Ahamada · Off: Rodrigo Gomes Corrected
61′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Rafiki Said Ahamada · Wolves
61′⚽ GOAL · 57' Middlesbrough 1–0 Wolves · will lankshear (assist Tommy Conway)
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Wolves · On: Fer López · Off: Mateus Mane Corrected
65′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Jean-Ricner Bellegarde · Wolves
69′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Middlesbrough · On: Luke Ayling · Off: Sebastian Berhalter Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Middlesbrough · On: Myles Peart-Harris · Off: Tommy Conway Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Middlesbrough · On: Jeremy Sarmiento · Off: Riley McGree Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Wolves · On: Sean Neave · Off: André Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Middlesbrough · On: Kyle Joseph · Off: will lankshear Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Middlesbrough · On: Max Arfsten · Off: Amario Cozier-Duberry Corrected
94′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Myles Peart-Harris · Middlesbrough
FTFULL TIME Middlesbrough 1–0 Wolves
FTMiddlesbrough 1–0 Wolves · Middlesbrough win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Middlesbrough win47%

Draw25%

Wolves win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

I try to manage like Jurgen Klopp - but an ex-Liverpool and Man City coach taught me moreMirror Football · 1 hour ago · Liverpool, Manchester City, Wolves

Fosun told to make major Wolves investment tweak to thing fans ‘don't understand’Football League World · 6 hours ago · Wolves

Would Steve Gibson sell Middlesbrough?Football League World · 7 hours ago · Middlesbrough

How rich Wolves, Birmingham City and West Brom's owners really areFootball League World · 8 hours ago · Wolves, Birmingham

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Riverside Stadium

Referee · Farai Hallam

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Middlesbrough

4-2-3-1

1 R. Vitek

2 C. Brittain

4 A. Phillips

29 A. Malanda

30 Neto Borges

10 A. Morris

6 S. Berhalter

11 A. Cozier-Duberry

8 R. McGree

9 T. Conway

7 W. Lankshear

Coach · Kim Hellberg

Substitutes

31 · S. Brynn

12 · L. Ayling

3 · S. Byram

14 · M. Peart-Harris

18 · C. Barron

19 · L. Castledine

16 · J. Sarmiento

22 · K. Joseph

17 · M. Arfsten

Wolves

4-4-1-1

1 J. Sa

2 K. Trippier

34 N. Djiga

24 Toti

3 H. Bueno

21 R. Gomes

5 M. Munetsi

7 Andre

36 M. Mane

20 T. Doyle

10 A. Armstrong

Coach · Cesar Peixoto

Substitutes

13 · J. Virginia

37 · L. Krejci

33 · G. Konan

27 · J. Bellegarde

8 · J. James

14 · S. Neave

28 · F. Lopez

19 · R. Said

38 · J. Tchatchoua

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Middlesbrough

4-2-3-1

1 R. Vitek

2 C. Brittain

4 A. Phillips

29 A. Malanda

30 Neto Borges

10 A. Morris

6 S. Berhalter

11 A. Cozier-Duberry

8 R. McGree

9 T. Conway

7 W. Lankshear

Coach · Kim Hellberg

Substitutes

31 · S. Brynn

12 · L. Ayling

3 · S. Byram

14 · M. Peart-Harris

18 · C. Barron

19 · L. Castledine

16 · J. Sarmiento

22 · K. Joseph

17 · M. Arfsten

Wolves

4-4-1-1

1 J. Sa

2 K. Trippier

34 N. Djiga

24 Toti

3 H. Bueno

21 R. Gomes

5 M. Munetsi

7 Andre

36 M. Mane

20 T. Doyle

10 A. Armstrong

Coach · Cesar Peixoto

Substitutes

13 · J. Virginia

37 · L. Krejci

33 · G. Konan

27 · J. Bellegarde

8 · J. James

14 · S. Neave

28 · F. Lopez

19 · R. Said

38 · J. Tchatchoua

Our number · middlesbrough winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

47% The market44%

Us47%

~~Market~~44%

We make Middlesbrough a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · middlesbrough win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 42% to 44% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Middlesbrough win	47%	44%	+3
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Wolves win	28%	30%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	56%	59%	−2
Both teams to score	58%	62%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	79%	79%	0
Over 3.5 goals	34%	38%	−4
Middlesbrough or draw	72%	70%	+1
Middlesbrough clean sheet	29%	–	–
Wolves clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 5.8 6.4 4.2 1 8.6 11.4 6.9 2.9 2 7.5 9.2 5.8 2.4 3 4.2 5.2 3.3 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Middlesbrough down, Wolves across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,881 Championship matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Middlesbrough at home: 2.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Wolves away: 2.00 scored, 1.75 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Middlesbrough, 1.26 for Wolves. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:33. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Championship

MIDDLESBROUGH

WDWWDD3–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 4–3 · 2–2 · 2–2

WOLVES

WWLDWW3–1 · 4–1 · 2–4 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea	8	+7	17
2	West Ham	9	+11	16
3	Middlesbrough	8	+4	15
4	Southampton	8	+9	14
5	Wolves	7	+5	14
6	QPR	9	+3	14
7	West Brom	8	+2	14
8	Stoke City	8	+1	13
9	Bristol City	8	−1	13
10	Charlton	8	−3	12
11	Birmingham	8	+1	11
12	Millwall	8	0	11
13	Lincoln	8	−1	11
14	Wrexham	8	−3	10
15	Bolton	8	−4	10
16	Blackburn	8	0	9
17	Norwich	8	−1	9
18	Sheffield Utd	8	−2	9
19	Portsmouth	7	−1	8
20	Watford	8	−3	8
21	Cardiff	8	−2	7
22	Derby	8	−7	5
23	Preston	8	−7	4
24	Burnley	8	−8	4