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Middlesbrough v Charlton

Middlesbrough

15:00Upcoming

Charlton

Championship · SAT 31 OCT · Riverside Stadium

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MiddlesbroughDrawCharlton

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Middlesbrough 59%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Middlesbrough are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Middlesbrough 59%, draw 23%, Charlton 18%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Middlesbrough v CharltonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Middlesbrough win59%

Draw23%

Charlton win18%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueRiverside Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Middlesbrough

Charlton

8Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · the English Championship

Last match: 24 Oct · the English Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

4 players who could follow Rob Apter out of Charlton Athletic in January ft £3.5m starFootball League World · 24 Oct 19:30 · Charlton

6 players should follow Leo Castledine out of Middlesbrough in JanuaryFootball League World · 24 Oct 16:00 · Middlesbrough

Fresh Aidan Morris transfer twist emerges at MiddlesbroughFootball League World · 24 Oct 12:37 · Middlesbrough

Charlton Athletic will wince at Crystal Palace winger situation right nowFootball League World · 23 Oct 08:00 · Charlton, Crystal Palace

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · middlesbrough winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Middlesbrough a 59% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Middlesbrough v Charlton~~1.80 – 0.87

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 25 v 14~~1 v 19

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Middlesbrough win	59%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Charlton win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Middlesbrough or draw	82%	–	–
Middlesbrough clean sheet	42%	–	–
Charlton clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.3%

0123450 7.3 5.9 2.7 1 12.3 11.0 4.7 2 11.1 9.6 4.2 3 6.7 5.8 2.5 4 3.0 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Middlesbrough down, Charlton across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,929 Championship matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 144 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Middlesbrough at home: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Charlton away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for Middlesbrough, 0.87 for Charlton. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MID 0–1 CHA · CHA 1–2 MID

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 12 Sept

MIDDLESBROUGH

DDWWDW2–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 5–1

CHARLTON

DLDDLL0–0 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Middlesbrough	12	+10	25
2	Swansea	12	+3	23
3	West Ham	12	+17	22
4	Wolves	12	+4	21
5	West Brom	12	+3	21
6	Southampton	12	+12	20
7	Birmingham	12	+8	20
8	QPR	12	+8	20
9	Stoke City	12	+2	20
10	Blackburn	12	+3	18
11	Portsmouth	12	+1	18
12	Sheffield Utd	12	+1	16
13	Millwall	12	−1	15
14	Bristol City	12	−3	15
15	Lincoln	12	−7	15
16	Cardiff	12	+2	14
17	Wrexham	12	−3	14
18	Bolton	12	−7	14
19	Charlton	12	−7	14
20	Norwich	12	−2	12
21	Watford	12	−10	11
22	Burnley	12	−8	8
23	Derby	12	−11	7
24	Preston	12	−15	5