Middlesbrough v Cardiff

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Middlesbrough win at 60%.
2. 2′Little has changed for our model: Middlesbrough 60% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 60–22–18
3. 2′KICK-OFF Middlesbrough v Cardiff
4. 19′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Brian Barry-Murphy · Cardiff
5. 22′We said Middlesbrough at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–1 · 28–26–45
6. 22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Middlesbrough 0–1 Cardiff
7. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Middlesbrough win: 60% at kick-off, 28% now
8. 22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Cardiff win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Middlesbrough win 28%)
9. 23′22′: Jack Moylan on the scoresheet for Cardiff, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 28–27–45
10. 25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Joel Bagan · Cardiff
11. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 25–27–48
12. 32′We said Middlesbrough at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–28–48
13. 35′10 shots for Middlesbrough, 4 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 23–28–49
14. 38′Middlesbrough have had 13 attempts to 4 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 22–28–51
15. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Middlesbrough win: 60% at kick-off, 20% now
16. 43′We said Middlesbrough at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–28–53
17. 45′HALF-TIME Middlesbrough 0–2 Cardiff
18. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Middlesbrough · On: will lankshear · Off: Kyle Joseph
19. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Middlesbrough · On: Sebastian Berhalter · Off: Luke Ayling
20. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Cardiff · On: David Turnbull · Off: Joel Colwill
21. 46′We said Middlesbrough at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 0–2 · 5–13–82
22. 46′16 shots for Middlesbrough, 6 the other way, and they still trail 0–2. 0–2 · 5–13–82
23. 46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Middlesbrough 0–2 Cardiff
24. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Middlesbrough win: 60% at kick-off, 5% now
25. 46′SECOND HALF Middlesbrough 0–2 Cardiff
26. 47′Cardiff ahead on 45′ through Ollie·Tanner. 0–2. 0–2 · 5–12–83
27. 49′We said Middlesbrough at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–12–84
28. 56′20 shots for Middlesbrough, 6 the other way, and they still trail 0–2. 0–2 · 3–10–87
29. 58′Tommy Conway scores for Middlesbrough on 58′. 0–2 · 3–9–88
30. 59′We said Middlesbrough at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 1–2 · 11–27–61
31. 59′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 11–27–61
32. 59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Middlesbrough 1–2 Cardiff · Tommy Conway
33. 61′We said Middlesbrough at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 37%. 2–2 · 37–47–16
34. 61′61′: will lankshear on the scoresheet for Middlesbrough, making it 2–2. 2–2 · 37–47–16
35. 61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Middlesbrough 2–2 Cardiff
36. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Middlesbrough win: 60% at kick-off, 37% now
37. 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Cardiff win 16%)
38. 62′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 37–48–15
39. 62′24 shots for Middlesbrough, 6 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 2–2 · 37–48–15
40. 65′We said Middlesbrough at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 2–2 · 34–51–15
41. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Cardiff · On: William Fish · Off: Christopher Willock
42. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Middlesbrough win: 60% at kick-off, 30% now
43. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Cardiff · On: Calum Scanlon · Off: Ronan Kpakio
44. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Middlesbrough · On: Max Arfsten · Off: Amario Cozier-Duberry
45. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Middlesbrough win: 60% at kick-off, 20% now
46. 80′28 shots for Middlesbrough, 7 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 2–2 · 18–74–8
47. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Cardiff · On: Isaak Davies · Off: Ollie·Tanner
48. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Middlesbrough · On: Myles Peart-Harris · Off: Riley McGree
49. 83′🟥 RED CARD · 83' Cardiff
50. 84′Cardiff are down to ten from 83′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–2 · 11–83–6
51. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Middlesbrough win: 60% at kick-off, 10% now
52. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Jack Moylan · Cardiff
53. 90′32 shots for Middlesbrough, 7 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 2–2 · 6–91–3
54. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Middlesbrough · On: Jeremy Sarmiento · Off: Neto Borges
55. FTFULL TIME Middlesbrough 2–2 Cardiff
56. FTMiddlesbrough 2–2 Cardiff · Middlesbrough win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.