Lincoln v Burnley

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Burnley win at 47%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Burnley 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 26–27–47
3. 1′KICK-OFF Lincoln v Burnley
4. 4′A goal for Lincoln on 3′. 0–0 · 26–27–47
5. 14′SUBSTITUTION · 13' Burnley · On: Andréas Hountondji · Off: Armando Broja
6. 40′39′: Andréas Hountondji on the scoresheet for Burnley, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 6–18–77
7. 40′We said Burnley at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 0–1 · 6–18–77
8. 40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Lincoln 0–1 Burnley
9. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Burnley win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
10. 41′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 6–17–77
11. 45′HALF-TIME Lincoln 1–1 Burnley
12. 45′SECOND HALF Lincoln 1–1 Burnley
13. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Burnley · On: Connor Roberts · Off: Kyle Walker
14. 48′We said Burnley at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 1–1 · 22–43–35
15. 48′Lincoln level it on 45′ through Ben House. 1–1. 1–1 · 22–43–35
16. 48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Lincoln 1–1 Burnley
17. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Burnley win: 47% at kick-off, 35% now
18. 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Burnley win 78%)
19. 50′10 shots for Lincoln, 5 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 21–44–35
20. 51′Mikkel Ladefoged scores for Lincoln on 49′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 66–25–10
21. 51′We said Burnley at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 2–1 · 66–25–10
22. 51′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 66–25–10
23. 51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Lincoln 2–1 Burnley · Mikkel Ladefoged
24. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Burnley win: 47% at kick-off, 10% now
25. 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Lincoln win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Draw 44%)
26. 52′We said Burnley at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–1 · 66–25–9
27. 58′57′: Dom Jefferies on the scoresheet for Lincoln, making it 3–1. 3–1 · 93–6–1
28. 58′We said Burnley at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 3–1 · 93–6–1
29. 58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Lincoln 3–1 Burnley · Dom Jefferies
30. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Burnley win: 47% at kick-off, 1% now
31. 59′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 93–6–1
32. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Burnley · On: Oliver Sonne · Off: Dastan Satpaev
33. 67′5 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 99–0–0
34. 67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Lincoln 4–1 Burnley
35. 68′Lincoln ahead on 67′ through Mikkel Ladefoged. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
36. 69′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Grégoire Coudert · Burnley
37. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Ben House · Lincoln
38. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Burnley · On: Marcus Edwards · Off: Max Alleyne
39. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Burnley · On: Ugo Raghouber · Off: Reo Hatate
40. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Lincoln · On: Ryley Towler · Off: Sonny Bradley
41. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Lincoln · On: Robert Nicholas Street · Off: Mikkel Ladefoged
42. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Lincoln · On: Chiedozie Ogbene · Off: Reeco Hackett-Fairchild
43. 85′PENALTY MISSED · 84' Marcus Edwards · Burnley
44. 90′4–1 at the end. Our 47% on Burnley misses, and the record keeps it. 4–1 · 100–0–0
45. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Lincoln · On: Ivan Varfolomeev · Off: Conor McGrandles
46. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Lincoln · On: Daniel Oyegoke · Off: Dom Jefferies
47. FTFULL TIME Lincoln 4–1 Burnley
48. FTLincoln 4–1 Burnley · Burnley win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.