Lincoln v Birmingham prediction · Championship

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

LincolnDrawBirmingham

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Lincoln 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lincoln are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lincoln 40%, draw 27%, Birmingham 33%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Lincoln v BirminghamBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Lincoln win40%

Draw27%

Birmingham win33%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 13

VenueLNER stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lincoln

Birmingham

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the English Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Birmingham	12	+8	20
15	Lincoln	12	−7	15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Middlesbrough fans must be confused with Birmingham City transfer situationFootball League World · 25 Oct 07:00 · Middlesbrough, Birmingham

Ranking every Birmingham City player by how hard they would be to replaceFootball League World · 25 Oct 06:30 · Birmingham

Burnley sack Nicky Hayen after Lincoln rout leaves them in bottom threeThe Guardian · 24 Oct 19:05 · Burnley, Lincoln

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lincoln winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Lincoln a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lincoln v Birmingham~~1.35 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 15 v 20~~15 v 7

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lincoln win	40%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Birmingham win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Lincoln or draw	67%	–	–
Lincoln clean sheet	30%	–	–
Birmingham clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.1 9.2 5.7 2.3 1 10.2 12.6 7.5 3.1 2 7.0 8.3 5.0 2.1 3 3.2 3.8 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lincoln down, Birmingham across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,929 Championship matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 144 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lincoln at home: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Birmingham away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Lincoln, 1.21 for Birmingham. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~BIR 1–0 LIN · BIR 2–1 LIN · LIN 1–3 BIR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 12 Sept

LINCOLN

WLLLDW1–0 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 0–6 · 2–2 · 4–1

BIRMINGHAM

WDWWWL2–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 3–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Middlesbrough	12	+10	25
2	Swansea	12	+3	23
3	West Ham	12	+17	22
4	Wolves	12	+4	21
5	West Brom	12	+3	21
6	Southampton	12	+12	20
7	Birmingham	12	+8	20
8	QPR	12	+8	20
9	Stoke City	12	+2	20
10	Blackburn	12	+3	18
11	Portsmouth	12	+1	18
12	Sheffield Utd	12	+1	16
13	Millwall	12	−1	15
14	Bristol City	12	−3	15
15	Lincoln	12	−7	15
16	Cardiff	12	+2	14
17	Wrexham	12	−3	14
18	Bolton	12	−7	14
19	Charlton	12	−7	14
20	Norwich	12	−2	12
21	Watford	12	−10	11
22	Burnley	12	−8	8
23	Derby	12	−11	7
24	Preston	12	−15	5