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Derby v Wrexham

Derby

1–1Full time

Wrexham

Championship · SAT 10 OCT · Pride Park Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Derby 1–1 Wrexham DERBY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Derby win~~41%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.813

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.767

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Derby win at 41%.
3′Much as we predicted: Derby was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–26–33
3′KICK-OFF Derby v Wrexham
7′🟨 YELLOW · 5' Sondre Langas · Derby
10′Sammie Szmodics scores for Derby on 9′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 40–28–32
10′⚽ GOAL · 9' Derby 0–0 Wrexham · Sammie Szmodics (assist Mohammed Fuseini)
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Derby 1–0 Wrexham · Sammie Szmodics
16′We published Derby at 41%. Our model now makes it 68%. 1–0 · 68–20–12
16′SUBSTITUTION · 15' Wrexham · On: Oliver Rathbone · Off: Josh Windass Corrected
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Derby win: 41% at kick-off, 68% now
28′We published Derby at 41%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–10
31′We published Derby at 41%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–10
37′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 71–20–9
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Derby win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
45′SECOND HALF Derby 1–0 Wrexham
51′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Ryan Hedges · Derby
60′🟨 YELLOW · 5' Sondre Langas · Derby
60′⚽ GOAL · 9' Derby 1–0 Wrexham · Sammie Szmodics (assist Mohammed Fuseini)
60′SUBSTITUTION · 15' Wrexham · On: Oliver Rathbone · Off: Josh Windass Corrected
60′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Ryan Hedges · Derby
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Wrexham · On: Sam Smith · Off: Lewis O'Brien Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Wrexham · On: Danny Imray · Off: Issa Kabore Corrected
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Oliver Rathbone · Wrexham
71′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Derby · On: Henrik Wendel Meister · Off: Mohammed Fuseini Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Derby · On: Rhian Brewster · Off: Sammie Szmodics Corrected
74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Alex Mowatt · Derby
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Derby · On: Oscar Fraulo · Off: Bobby Clark Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Derby · On: Lars-Jørgen Salvesen · Off: Carlton Morris Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Wrexham · On: George Dobson · Off: Zak Vyner Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Wrexham · On: Ryan·Longman · Off: Jacques Ekomié Corrected
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Derby 1–1 Wrexham · Sammie Szmodics
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Derby 1–1 Wrexham · Oliver Rathbone
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Derby 1–1 Wrexham · Oliver Rathbone
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Derby 1–1 Wrexham · Oliver Rathbone
91′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Kieffer Moore · Wrexham
FTFULL TIME Derby 1–1 Wrexham
FTDerby 1–1 Wrexham · Derby win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Derby win41%

Draw27%

Wrexham win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

John Eustace warned against Derby County transfer action despite 'terrible situation'Football League World · 7 hours ago · Derby

3 left-backs Derby County could sign after fresh blow ft ex-AC Milan starFootball League World · 21 hours ago · Derby, AC Milan

Celtic set to cast eyes over Goalkeeper who has been eyed up by Blackburn & WrexhamFootball League World · 22 hours ago · Celtic, Blackburn, Wrexham

James McClean controversy: What's actually going on with the ex-Wrexham star?Football League World · 1 day ago · Wrexham, Derry City

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Pride Park Stadium

Referee · Matt Donohue

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Derby

4-2-3-1

31 J. Vickers

23 J. Ward

6 S. Langas

28 D. Sanderson

26 R. Hedges

20 A. Mowatt

4 D. Ozoh

16 M. Fuseini

8 B. Clark

11 S. Szmodics

9 C. Morris

Coach · John Eustace

Substitutes

12 · R. O'Donnell

24 · R. Nyambe

27 · L. Travis

29 · O. Fraulo

33 · C. Blackett-Taylor

13 · F. Bilbija

19 · H. Meister

15 · L. Salvesen

10 · R. Brewster

Wrexham

3-4-2-1

22 A. Patterson

26 Z. Vyner

6 J. Worrall

5 D. Hyam

12 I. Kabore

8 B. Whiteman

27 L. O'Brien

3 J. Ekomie

10 J. Windass

17 C. O'Hare

19 K. Moore

Coach · Phil Parkinson

Substitutes

21 · D. Ward

30 · D. Imray

34 · A. James

15 · G. Dobson

47 · R. Longman

20 · O. Rathbone

11 · B. Cadamarteri

28 · S. Smith

50 · S. Chesworth

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Derby

4-2-3-1

31 J. Vickers

23 J. Ward

6 S. Langas

28 D. Sanderson

26 R. Hedges

20 A. Mowatt

4 D. Ozoh

16 M. Fuseini

8 B. Clark

11 S. Szmodics

9 C. Morris

Coach · John Eustace

Substitutes

12 · R. O'Donnell

24 · R. Nyambe

27 · L. Travis

29 · O. Fraulo

33 · C. Blackett-Taylor

13 · F. Bilbija

19 · H. Meister

15 · L. Salvesen

10 · R. Brewster

Wrexham

3-4-2-1

22 A. Patterson

26 Z. Vyner

6 J. Worrall

5 D. Hyam

12 I. Kabore

8 B. Whiteman

27 L. O'Brien

3 J. Ekomie

10 J. Windass

17 C. O'Hare

19 K. Moore

Coach · Phil Parkinson

Substitutes

21 · D. Ward

30 · D. Imray

34 · A. James

15 · G. Dobson

47 · R. Longman

20 · O. Rathbone

11 · B. Cadamarteri

28 · S. Smith

50 · S. Chesworth

Our number · derby winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

41% The market32%

Us41%

~~Market~~32%

We make Derby a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · derby win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 35% to 32% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Derby win	41%	32%	+9
Draw	27%	29%	−2
Wrexham win	32%	40%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	50%	47%	+2
Both teams to score	54%	54%	0
Over 1.5 goals	75%	71%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	28%	28%	0
Derby or draw	68%	60%	+7
Derby clean sheet	29%	–	–
Wrexham clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 7.4 8.3 5.3 2.2 1 9.6 12.6 7.5 3.1 2 7.1 8.7 5.4 2.2 3 3.4 4.1 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Derby down, Wrexham across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,881 Championship matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Derby at home: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Wrexham away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Derby, 1.24 for Wrexham. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:33. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~DER 1–2 WRE · WRE 1–1 DER

Form · last six in Championship

DERBY

LWLLLD0–3 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

WREXHAM

LWDDLW1–2 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–6 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea	8	+7	17
2	West Ham	9	+11	16
3	Middlesbrough	8	+4	15
4	Southampton	8	+9	14
5	Wolves	7	+5	14
6	QPR	9	+3	14
7	West Brom	8	+2	14
8	Stoke City	8	+1	13
9	Bristol City	8	−1	13
10	Charlton	8	−3	12
11	Birmingham	8	+1	11
12	Millwall	8	0	11
13	Lincoln	8	−1	11
14	Wrexham	8	−3	10
15	Bolton	8	−4	10
16	Blackburn	8	0	9
17	Norwich	8	−1	9
18	Sheffield Utd	8	−2	9
19	Portsmouth	7	−1	8
20	Watford	8	−3	8
21	Cardiff	8	−2	7
22	Derby	8	−7	5
23	Preston	8	−7	4
24	Burnley	8	−8	4