Derby v Stoke City prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Derby 0–1 Stoke City DERBY WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Derby win~~44%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.773

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.545

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Derby win at 44%.
1′KICK-OFF Derby v Stoke City
2′Much as we predicted: Derby was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–28–29
9′Much as we predicted: Derby was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–29–28
40′SUBSTITUTION · 38' Stoke City · On: Luca Bombino · Off: Eric Junior Bocat
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Derby win 35%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Derby win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
45′HALF-TIME Derby 0–0 Stoke City
45′SECOND HALF Derby 0–0 Stoke City
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Stoke City · On: George Hirst · Off: Jack Mcglynn
50′We said Derby at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 32–44–23
51′49′: Luke Graham on the scoresheet for Stoke City. 0–0 · 32–45–23
51′⚽ GOAL · 49' Derby 0–1 Stoke City · Luke Graham
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Derby win: 44% at kick-off, 8% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Stoke City win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 24%)
51′GOAL DISALLOWED · 51' Stoke City
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Derby win: 44% at kick-off, 32% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Stoke City win 23%)
52′We said Derby at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–1 · 8–23–68
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Derby 0–1 Stoke City · Luke Graham
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Derby win: 44% at kick-off, 8% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Stoke City win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 23%)
53′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Derby · On: Rhian Brewster · Off: Lewis Travis
55′We expected about 2.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 34–41–24 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
65′We said Derby at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Derby win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Stoke City · On: Maksym Taloverov · Off: Bosun Lawal
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Stoke City · On: Róbert Boženík · Off: Lamine Cissé
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Derby · On: Henrik Wendel Meister · Off: Mohammed Fuseini
77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' D. Ozoh · Derby
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Derby · On: Corey Blackett-Taylor · Off: Bobby Clark
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Derby · On: Filip Bilbija · Off: Ryan Hedges
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Derby · On: Lars-Jørgen Salvesen · Off: Sammie Szmodics
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Stoke City · On: Junior Tchamadeu · Off: Justin Devenny
91′17 shots for Derby, 11 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 0–4–96
FTFULL TIME Derby 0–1 Stoke City
FTDerby 0–1 Stoke City · Derby win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Derby are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Derby 44%, draw 27%, Stoke City 29%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Derby v Stoke CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Derby win44%

Draw27%

Stoke City win29%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenuePride Park Stadium

RefereeOliver Langford

Line-ups

Derby

4-2-3-1

Stoke City

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Derby

Stoke City

3Days since last match4

Last match: 14 Oct · the English Championship

Last match: 13 Oct · the English Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Stoke City	10	+1	16
23	Derby	10	−10	6

In the news

from the pressAll ›

He made 203 appearances for Derby County - now he’s clubless at 36Football League World · 17 Oct 08:15 · Derby

Sheffield United won’t believe what’s going on at Stoke City right nowFootball League World · 17 Oct 07:45 · Sheffield Utd, Stoke City

Stoke City must be laughing at £2m Watford transferFootball League World · 17 Oct 07:40 · Stoke City

Birmingham City and Derby County must launch fresh Ipswich Town transfer raidFootball League World · 17 Oct 07:30 · Birmingham, Derby, Ipswich

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Derby

4-2-3-1

31 J. Vickers

23 J. Ward

24 R. Nyambe

28 D. Sanderson

26 R. Hedges

4 D. Ozoh

27 L. Travis

16 M. Fuseini

8 B. Clark

11 S. Szmodics

9 C. Morris

Coach · John Eustace

Substitutes

12 · R. O'Donnell

42 · R. Offor

43 · I. Gordon

29 · O. Fraulo

33 · C. Blackett-Taylor

13 · F. Bilbija

19 · H. Meister

15 · L. Salvesen

10 · R. Brewster

Stoke City

3-4-3

1 V. Johansson

16 B. Wilmot

18 B. Lawal

5 L. Graham

2 B. Johnson

27 D. Soumare

8 E. Galbraith

17 E. Bocat

7 J. McGlynn

11 L. Cisse

13 J. Devenny

Coach · Mark Robins

Substitutes

24 · J. Griffiths

22 · J. Tchamadeu

21 · L. Bombino

40 · M. Talovierov

4 · B. Pearson

10 · Bae Jun-Ho

9 · R. Bozenik

42 · M. Manhoef

15 · G. Hirst

Our number · derby winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market32%

Us44%

~~Market~~32%

We make Derby a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Derby v Stoke City~~1.38 – 1.07

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 16~~23 v 9

~~The market · Derby win~~32% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Derby win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Derby win	44%	32%	+12
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Stoke City win	29%	40%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	44%	48%	−4
Both teams to score	49%	54%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	70%	72%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	23%	28%	−5
Derby or draw	71%	60%	+11
Derby clean sheet	35%	–	–
Stoke City clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.0 9.0 4.9 1 11.7 12.9 6.7 2.4 2 8.2 8.7 4.6 3 3.8 4.0 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Derby down, Stoke City across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,905 Championship matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.3% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Derby at home: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Stoke City away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Derby, 1.07 for Stoke City. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~DER 2–0 STO · STO 3–1 DER · DER 0–0 STO · STO 2–1 DER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 5 Sept

DERBY

LLLDDL0–3 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–4

STOKE CITY

WDWWWL4–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea	10	+9	23
2	Middlesbrough	10	+6	21
3	West Ham	10	+17	19
4	Birmingham	10	+6	17
5	QPR	10	+6	17
6	Wolves	10	+3	17
7	West Brom	10	+2	17
8	Southampton	10	+11	16
9	Stoke City	10	+1	16
10	Blackburn	10	+2	15
11	Millwall	10	0	14
12	Bristol City	10	−2	14
13	Charlton	10	−3	14
14	Bolton	10	−3	13
15	Sheffield Utd	10	0	12
16	Portsmouth	9	−1	11
17	Wrexham	10	−4	11
18	Lincoln	10	−10	11
19	Cardiff	10	+1	10
20	Norwich	10	−3	9
21	Burnley	11	−5	8
22	Watford	10	−11	8
23	Derby	10	−10	6
24	Preston	10	−12	4