Charlton v Norwich prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Charlton 1–3 Norwich NORWICH WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Norwich win~~38%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.587

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.484

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Norwich win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Norwich was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 35–27–38
1′KICK-OFF Charlton v Norwich
10′10′: Charlie Kelman on the scoresheet for Charlton. 0–0 · 35–29–37
11′We said Norwich at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 63–21–15
11′⚽ GOAL · 10' Charlton 1–0 Norwich · Charlie Kelman (assist Joe Rankin-Costello)
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Norwich win: 38% at kick-off, 15% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Charlton win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Norwich win 37%)
16′We said Norwich at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 64–22–14
28′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Karlan Grant · Charlton
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 66–22–12
30′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Mathias Kvistgaarden · Norwich
33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Josh Edwards · Charlton
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Charlton 1–1 Norwich
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Norwich win: 38% at kick-off, 33% now
36′35′: Paris Maghoma on the scoresheet for Norwich, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 31–36–33
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Charlton win 67%)
45′HALF-TIME Charlton 1–1 Norwich
45′SECOND HALF Charlton 1–1 Norwich
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Norwich · On: Kenny McLean · Off: Pelle Mattsson
50′We published Norwich at 38%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–2 · 7–21–72
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Charlton 1–2 Norwich
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Norwich win: 38% at kick-off, 72% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Norwich win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 43%)
51′Norwich ahead on 50′ through Mathias Kvistgaarden. 1–2. 1–2 · 7–21–73
51′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 7–21–73
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Charlton · On: Miles Leaburn · Off: Karlan Grant
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Charlton · On: Harvey Knibbs · Off: Josh Edwards Corrected
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Charlton · On: Ivan Mesik · Off: sonny carey Corrected
57′Charlie Kelman scores for Charlton on 57′. 1–2 · 5–20–75
57′We published Norwich at 38%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–2 · 5–20–75
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Norwich win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Norwich · On: Samuel Field · Off: Paris Maghoma
68′We published Norwich at 38%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Harvey Knibbs · Charlton
76′We published Norwich at 38%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 1–13–85
76′We published Norwich at 38%. Our model now makes it 99%. 1–3 · 0–1–99
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Norwich · On: J. Makama · Off: Mathias Kvistgaarden
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Norwich · On: Anthony Musaba · Off: Andre Brooks
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Charlton · On: Alan Mwamba · Off: Conor Coventry
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Charlton 1–3 Norwich
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Norwich win: 38% at kick-off, 99% now
77′An own goal by Charlton's Ivan Mesik on 76′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–1–99
77′4 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–1–99
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Ante Crnac · Norwich
83′We published Norwich at 38%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Charlton · On: Micah Mbick · Off: Joe Rankin-Costello
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Norwich · On: Darlin Yongwa · Off: Oscar Schwartau
91′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Alan Mwamba · Charlton
FTFULL TIME Charlton 1–3 Norwich
FTCharlton 1–3 Norwich · Norwich win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Norwich just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Charlton 36%, draw 27%, Norwich 38%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Charlton v NorwichBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Charlton win36%

Draw27%

Norwich win38%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 12

VenueThe Valley

RefereeJohn Busby

Line-ups

Charlton

4-2-3-1

Norwich

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Charlton

Norwich

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the English Championship

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Charlton	11	−5	14
21	Norwich	11	−4	9

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Concerning Norwich City claim emerges involving Philippe ClementFootball League World · 23 Oct 19:15 · Norwich

Fresh Norwich City transfer revelation surfaces after £8m Sheffield United dealFootball League World · 23 Oct 17:30 · Norwich, Sheffield Utd

Charlton Athletic will wince at Crystal Palace winger situation right nowFootball League World · 23 Oct 08:00 · Charlton, Crystal Palace

'No disrespect to him' - Charlton Athletic fan claim made about Lyndon Dykes at MillwallFootball League World · 23 Oct 07:40 · Charlton, Millwall

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Charlton

4-2-3-1

13 A. Okonkwo

2 K. Ramsay

5 L. Jones

12 Billy Dawson Koumetio

3 J. Edwards

6 C. Coventry

26 J. Rankin-Costello

9 K. Ahearne-Grant

14 S. Carey

7 T. Campbell

23 C. Kelman

Coach · N. Jones

Substitutes

19 · M. Alli

17 · A. Bell

44 · Tyler Bindon

8 · H. Knibbs

11 · M. Leaburn

25 · W. Mannion

33 · Micah Mbick

18 · I. Mesík

32 · A. Mwamba

Norwich

4-2-3-1

32 D. Grimshaw

3 J. Stacey

15 Ruairi McConville

6 H. Darling

14 B. Chrisene

16 Jacob Wright

7 P. Mattsson

11 A. Brooks

25 P. Maghoma

29 O. Schwartau

30 M. Kvistgaarden

Coach · P. Clement

Substitutes

26 · S. Field

35 · K. Fisher

1 · V. Kovačević

24 · J. Makama

23 · K. McLean

49 · A. Musaba

13 · D. Yongwa

17 · A. Crnac

33 · J. Córdoba

Our number · norwich winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

38% The market43%

Us38%

~~Market~~43%

We make Norwich a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Charlton v Norwich~~1.27 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 9 Sept~~W0 D4 L2 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 14 v 9~~16 v 21

~~The market · Norwich win~~43% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Norwich win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Charlton win	36%	29%	+7
Draw	27%	27%	0
Norwich win	38%	43%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	48%	50%	−2
Both teams to score	52%	55%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	73%	74%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	26%	30%	−4
Charlton or draw	62%	57%	+5
Charlton clean sheet	27%	–	–
Norwich clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 7.9 9.8 6.5 2.9 1 9.4 12.7 8.2 3.6 2 6.1 7.9 5.2 2.3 3 2.6 3.4 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Charlton down, Norwich across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,918 Championship matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.7% of games this season, across 133 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Charlton at home: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Norwich away: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Charlton, 1.31 for Norwich. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 12:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~CHA 0–1 NOR · NOR 1–0 CHA · CHA 0–1 NOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 9 Sept

CHARLTON

DDLDDL0–0 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–2

NORWICH

WLLLLL2–1 · 3–4 · 3–4 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Middlesbrough	12	+10	25
2	Swansea	11	+8	23
3	West Ham	11	+18	22
4	Birmingham	11	+9	20
5	West Brom	11	+3	20
6	Stoke City	11	+2	19
7	Wolves	11	+3	18
8	Southampton	11	+11	17
9	QPR	11	+3	17
10	Blackburn	11	+1	15
11	Sheffield Utd	11	+1	15
12	Millwall	11	0	15
13	Portsmouth	11	0	15
14	Wrexham	11	−1	14
15	Bristol City	11	−3	14
16	Charlton	11	−5	14
17	Bolton	12	−7	14
18	Lincoln	11	−10	12
19	Cardiff	11	+1	11
20	Watford	11	−9	11
21	Norwich	11	−4	9
22	Burnley	11	−5	8
23	Derby	11	−11	6
24	Preston	11	−15	4