Cardiff v Watford prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Cardiff 5–1 Watford CARDIFF WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cardiff win~~40%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.550

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.274

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cardiff win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Cardiff was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–27–33
1′KICK-OFF Cardiff v Watford
9′🟨 YELLOW · 9' Martin Payero · Watford
10′Jack Moylan scores for Cardiff on 11′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 67–20–13
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Cardiff 1–0 Watford
10′⚽ GOAL · 11' Cardiff 1–0 Watford · Jack Moylan
11′We published Cardiff at 40%. Our model now makes it 67%. 1–0 · 67–20–13
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Cardiff win: 40% at kick-off, 67% now
28′SUBSTITUTION · 29' Cardiff · On: William Fish · Off: Dylan Lawlor Corrected
29′We published Cardiff at 40%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–10
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 70–21–10
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Cardiff win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
34′⚽ GOAL · 35' Cardiff 1–0 Watford · Jack Moylan
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Cardiff 2–0 Watford · Jack Moylan
39′35′ and it is 2–0: Jack Moylan on the scoresheet for Cardiff. 2–0 · 92–6–2
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Cardiff win: 40% at kick-off, 92% now
40′Cardiff ahead on 41′ through Matthew Pollock. 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
40′⚽ GOAL · 41' Cardiff 2–0 Watford · Matthew Pollock
41′We published Cardiff at 40%. Our model now makes it 98%. 3–0 · 98–1–0
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Cardiff 3–0 Watford · Matthew Pollock
42′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 99–1–0
45′We published Cardiff at 40%. Our model now makes it 100%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
45′SECOND HALF Cardiff 4–0 Watford
46′4 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Cardiff 4–0 Watford · Matthew Pollock
49′⚽ GOAL · 50' Cardiff 4–0 Watford · Ollie·Tanner
50′Ollie·Tanner scores for Cardiff on 45′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Cardiff win: 40% at kick-off, 100% now
55′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Watford · On: Mamadou Doumbia · Off: Myron Boadu Corrected
55′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Watford · On: Marc Bola · Off: Haktab Omar Traore Corrected
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Watford · On: Amin Nabizada · Off: Stephy Mavididi Corrected
65′PENALTY MISSED · 65' Christopher Willock · Cardiff
66′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Watford · On: Iker Bravo · Off: Martin Payero Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Cardiff · On: David Turnbull · Off: Jack Moylan Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Cardiff · On: Calum Scanlon · Off: Christopher Willock Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Watford · On: Krépin Diatta · Off: Othmane Maamma Corrected
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Edo Kayembe · Watford
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Cardiff · On: Callum Robinson · Off: Ollie·Tanner Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Cardiff · On: Isaak Davies · Off: Joel Bagan Corrected
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Cardiff 5–0 Watford · Ollie·Tanner
85′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Amin Nabizada · Watford
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Perry Tian Hee Ng · Cardiff
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Cardiff 5–1 Watford
88′Watford pull one back on 87′ through Hector Kyprianou. 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
89′6 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 5–1 · 100–0–0
94′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Hector Kyprianou · Watford
FTFULL TIME Cardiff 5–1 Watford
FTCardiff 5–1 Watford · Cardiff win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Cardiff win40%

Draw27%

Watford win33%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

VenueCardiff City Stadium

RefereeJohn Busby

Line-ups

Cardiff

4-1-4-1

Watford

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Cardiff

Watford

3Days since last match3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
20	Watford	9	−7	8
21	Cardiff	9	−3	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Cardiff's Bielik claims death threats over fan clashBBC Sport · 2 hours ago · Cardiff, Portsmouth

Burnley take cheeky swipe at Elton John after concerning Watford commentFootball League World · 1 day ago · Burnley, Watford

He played at the World Cup after QPR, Cardiff City spells - he’s now clubless at 36Football League World · 2 days ago · Cardiff, Blackburn, Rangers, Junior

Cardiff City laughed at £8m West Brom deal - look where he is nowFootball League World · 2 days ago · Cardiff, West Brom

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Cardiff

4-1-4-1

1 N. Trott

38 P. Ng

48 D. Lawlor

4 G. Osho

3 J. Bagan

18 A. Robertson

11 O. Tanner

45 C. Ashford

27 J. Colwill

16 C. Willock

8 J. Moylan

Coach · Brian Barry-Murphy

Substitutes

30 · H. Tyrer

2 · W. Fish

23 · C. Scanlon

44 · R. Kpakio

14 · D. Turnbull

43 · P. Moreno

39 · I. Davies

47 · C. Robinson

50 · C. Holt

Watford

4-2-3-1

1 F. Ravaglia

23 O. H. Traore

6 M. Pollock

4 K. Keben

33 J. Zemura

39 E. Kayembe

5 H. Kyprianou

7 O. Maamma

22 M. Payero

45 S. Mavididi

10 M. Boadu

Coach · Alessio Dionisi

Substitutes

26 · D. Bachmann

16 · M. Bola

3 · S. Coulibaly

15 · K. Diatta

29 · B. Mlacic

9 · L. Kjerrumgaard

17 · I. Bravo

20 · M. Doumbia

21 · A. Nabizada

Our number · cardiff winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

40% The market58%

Us40%

~~Market~~58%

We make Cardiff a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 18 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cardiff win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 40% now. The market has gone from 51% to 58% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cardiff win	40%	58%	−18
Draw	27%	22%	+5
Watford win	33%	20%	+13
Over 2.5 goals	46%	63%	−17
Both teams to score	51%	62%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	72%	83%	−11
Over 3.5 goals	25%	43%	−18
Cardiff or draw	67%	80%	−13
Cardiff clean sheet	31%	–	–
Watford clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 8.5 9.3 5.7 2.3 1 10.3 13.0 7.5 3.0 2 7.1 8.4 5.0 3 3.2 3.7 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cardiff down, Watford across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,892 Championship matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.7% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cardiff at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Watford away: 0.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Cardiff, 1.19 for Watford. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 13 Oct 19:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~CAR 1–1 WAT · WAT 1–2 CAR · WAT 0–1 CAR · CAR 1–1 WAT

Form · last six in Championship

CARDIFF

LLDLWL1–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–2

WATFORD

LLWLLL0–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea	9	+8	20
2	Middlesbrough	9	+5	18
3	Southampton	9	+10	17
4	West Ham	9	+11	16
5	Stoke City	9	+2	16
6	Wolves	8	+4	14
7	QPR	9	+3	14
8	Birmingham	9	+2	14
9	Millwall	9	+1	14
10	West Brom	9	+1	14
11	Bristol City	9	−1	14
12	Charlton	9	−3	13
13	Blackburn	9	+1	12
14	Sheffield Utd	9	+1	12
15	Wrexham	9	−3	11
16	Lincoln	9	−4	11
17	Bolton	9	−5	10
18	Norwich	9	−2	9
19	Portsmouth	8	−2	8
20	Watford	9	−7	8
21	Cardiff	9	−3	7
22	Burnley	9	−4	7
23	Derby	9	−7	6
24	Preston	9	−8	4