Cardiff v Birmingham prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Cardiff 1–0 Birmingham BIRMINGHAM WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Birmingham win~~37%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.618

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.646

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Birmingham win at 37%.
0′KICK-OFF Cardiff v Birmingham
1′Little has changed for our model: Birmingham 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 36–27–37
23′PENALTY MISSED · 22' Yousef Salech · Cardiff
32′We said Birmingham at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 1–0 · 67–22–11
32′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 67–22–11
32′Cardiff ahead on 32′ through Yousef Salech. 1–0. 1–0 · 67–22–11
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Cardiff 1–0 Birmingham
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Birmingham win: 37% at kick-off, 11% now
32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Cardiff win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Birmingham win 34%)
34′Cardiff ahead on 31′ through Yousef Salech. 1–0. 1–0 · 67–22–11
41′We said Birmingham at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 69–22–9
45′HALF-TIME Cardiff 1–0 Birmingham
45′SECOND HALF Cardiff 1–0 Birmingham
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Birmingham win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Jhon Elmer Solís Romero · Birmingham
63′We said Birmingham at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–19–4
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Birmingham · On: Marvin Ducksch · Off: Luis Vasquez
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Birmingham · On: Patrick Roberts · Off: Carlos Vicente
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Birmingham · On: Max Bird · Off: Jhon Elmer Solís Romero
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Cardiff · On: Ronan Kpakio · Off: Calum Scanlon
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Cardiff · On: Christopher Willock · Off: Ollie·Tanner
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Birmingham · On: Demarai Gray · Off: Liam Millar
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Birmingham · On: Ethan Laird · Off: Bright Osayi-Samuel
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Christoph·Klarer · Birmingham
83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Joel Bagan · Cardiff
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Cardiff · On: David Turnbull · Off: Jack Moylan
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Cardiff · On: Isaak Davies · Off: C. Ashford
FTFULL TIME Cardiff 1–0 Birmingham
FTCardiff 1–0 Birmingham · Birmingham win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Birmingham just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Cardiff 36%, draw 27%, Birmingham 37%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Cardiff v BirminghamBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Cardiff win36%

Draw27%

Birmingham win37%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueCardiff City Stadium

RefereeTim Robinson

Line-ups

Cardiff

4-2-3-1

Birmingham

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cardiff

Birmingham

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the English Championship

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Birmingham	11	+9	20
19	Cardiff	11	+1	11

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Birmingham City star is the Championship’s best at one key thing - Carlos Vicente may not like itFootball League World · 24 Oct 08:30 · Birmingham

Coventry and Leeds stars can replace Tomoki Iwata at Birmingham CityFootball League World · 24 Oct 07:00 · Coventry, Leeds, Birmingham

Man City won't be happy with Southampton situation - Cardiff City must reactFootball League World · 23 Oct 08:40 · Manchester City, Southampton, Cardiff

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Cardiff

4-2-3-1

1 N. Trott

38 P. Ng

2 W. Fish

5 K. Bielik

3 J. Bagan

18 A. Robertson

8 J. Moylan

11 O. Tanner

27 J. Colwill

45 Cian Ashford

23 C. Scanlon

Coach · B. Barry-Murphy

Substitutes

39 · I. Davies

44 · R. Kpakio

52 · T. Perrett

9 · Y. Salech

33 · R. Tankiewicz

14 · D. Turnbull

30 · H. Tyrer

16 · C. Willock

50 · Charlie Holt

Birmingham

4-2-3-1

1 J. Beadle

26 B. Osayi-Samuel

5 P. Neumann

4 C. Klarer

20 A. Cochrane

24 T. Iwata

14 J. Solis

7 Carlos Vicente

28 J. Stansfield

17 L. Millar

32 L. Vázquez

Coach · C. Davies

Substitutes

23 · D. Fry

19 · T. Gardner-Hickman

10 · D. Gray

2 · E. Laird

16 · P. Roberts

33 · M. Ducksch

3 · L. Buchanan

18 · M. Bird

21 · R. Allsop

Our number · birmingham winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

37% The market40%

Us37%

~~Market~~40%

We make Birmingham a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cardiff v Birmingham~~1.29 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 8 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 20~~19 v 4

~~The market · Birmingham win~~40% · ours 37%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Birmingham win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cardiff win	36%	35%	+1
Draw	27%	25%	+2
Birmingham win	37%	40%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	48%	62%	−14
Both teams to score	53%	65%	−12
Over 1.5 goals	73%	82%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	27%	42%	−15
Cardiff or draw	63%	60%	+3
Cardiff clean sheet	27%	–	–
Birmingham clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 7.7 9.6 6.4 2.8 1 9.4 12.6 8.1 3.6 2 6.2 8.0 5.2 2.3 3 2.7 3.5 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cardiff down, Birmingham across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,918 Championship matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.7% of games this season, across 133 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.14 goals a meeting; 2 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cardiff at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Birmingham away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Cardiff, 1.31 for Birmingham. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.14

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~BIR 0–1 CAR · CAR 0–1 BIR · BIR 1–3 CAR · BIR 0–2 CAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 8 Sept

CARDIFF

DLWLWD1–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 5–1 · 2–2

BIRMINGHAM

LWDWWW1–2 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Middlesbrough	12	+10	25
2	Swansea	11	+8	23
3	West Ham	11	+18	22
4	Birmingham	11	+9	20
5	West Brom	11	+3	20
6	Stoke City	11	+2	19
7	Wolves	11	+3	18
8	Southampton	11	+11	17
9	QPR	11	+3	17
10	Blackburn	11	+1	15
11	Sheffield Utd	11	+1	15
12	Millwall	11	0	15
13	Portsmouth	11	0	15
14	Wrexham	11	−1	14
15	Bristol City	11	−3	14
16	Charlton	11	−5	14
17	Bolton	12	−7	14
18	Lincoln	11	−10	12
19	Cardiff	11	+1	11
20	Watford	11	−9	11
21	Norwich	11	−4	9
22	Burnley	11	−5	8
23	Derby	11	−11	6
24	Preston	11	−15	4