Burnley v Wolves prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 22:30

Burnley 1–2 Wolves BURNLEY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Burnley win~~54%

~~The market said~~30%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.959

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.474

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Burnley win at 54%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Burnley 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–24–22
1′KICK-OFF Burnley v Wolves
21′Jamie Vardy scores for Burnley on 20′. 0–0 · 50–28–22
21′We said Burnley at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–15–6
21′⚽ GOAL · 20' Burnley 1–0 Wolves · Jamie Vardy
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Burnley win: 54% at kick-off, 78% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 79–15–6
40′Fer López scores for Wolves on 39′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 44–35–21
40′⚽ GOAL · 39' Burnley 1–1 Wolves · Fer López
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Burnley win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Burnley win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
45′We said Burnley at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 42%. 1–1 · 42–38–20
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Burnley win: 54% at kick-off, 42% now
51′We said Burnley at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–41–19
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Burnley win 38%)
60′We said Burnley at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–48–17
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Burnley win: 54% at kick-off, 34% now
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Wolves · On: Mateus Mane · Off: Jean-Ricner Bellegarde
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Burnley · On: Armando Broja · Off: Jamie Vardy
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Burnley · On: Dastan Satpaev · Off: Jacob Bruun Larsen
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Reo Hatate · Burnley
67′We said Burnley at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–56–15
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Sean Neave · Wolves
72′We said Burnley at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–75
72′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 4–21–75
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Burnley 1–2 Wolves
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Burnley win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Wolves win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 21%)
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Wolves · On: Thomas Doyle · Off: Fer López
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Wolves · On: Tawanda Chirewa · Off: Sean Neave
73′72′: Tawanda Chirewa on the scoresheet for Wolves, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 4–20–76
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Burnley · On: Marcus Edwards · Off: Reo Hatate
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Burnley · On: Ugo Raghouber · Off: Max Alleyne
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Wolves · On: Hugo Bueno · Off: Rafiki Said Ahamada
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Wolves · On: Ladislav Krejčí · Off: Ghislain Konan
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Kyle Walker · Burnley
FTFULL TIME Burnley 1–2 Wolves
FTBurnley 1–2 Wolves · Burnley win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Burnley are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Burnley 54%, draw 24%, Wolves 22%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Burnley v WolvesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Burnley win54%

Draw24%

Wolves win22%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueTurf Moor

RefereeLewis Smith

Line-ups

Burnley

4-2-3-1

Wolves

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Burnley

Wolves

3Days since last match3

Last match: 13 Oct · the English Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Wolves	9	+2	14
21	Burnley	10	−4	8

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Burnley eyeing shock West Ham transfer raidFootball League World · 16 Oct 15:17 · Burnley, West Ham

Wolves fans notice unusual thing about Cesar Peixoto ahead of Burnley clashFootball League World · 16 Oct 09:18 · Burnley

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Burnley

4-2-3-1

37 G. Coudert

2 K. Walker

18 H. Ekdal

44 Igor

23 Lucas Pires

3 M. Alleyne

5 R. Hatate

19 L. Ramazani

29 J. Laurent

7 J. Bruun Larsen

9 J. Vardy

Coach · Nicky Hayen

Substitutes

1 · M. Weiss

22 · O. Sonne

14 · C. Roberts

8 · U. Raghouber

27 · A. Broja

17 · A. Hountondji

30 · L. Castell

12 · D. Satpaev

10 · M. Edwards

Wolves

4-2-3-1

1 J. Sa

38 J. Tchatchoua

34 N. Djiga

24 Toti

33 G. Konan

5 M. Munetsi

7 Andre

27 J. Bellegarde

28 F. Lopez

19 R. Said

14 S. Neave

Coach · Cesar Peixoto

Substitutes

13 · J. Virginia

2 · K. Trippier

37 · L. Krejci

3 · H. Bueno

20 · T. Doyle

15 · Y. Mosquera

8 · J. James

23 · T. Chirewa

36 · M. Mane

Our number · burnley winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 14 Oct 04:30 · locked at kick-off

54% The market30%

Us54%

~~Market~~30%

We make Burnley a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 24 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Burnley v Wolves~~1.73 – 1.00

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 1 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 14~~21 v 10

~~The market · Burnley win~~30% · ours 54%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Burnley win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Burnley win	54%	30%	+24
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Wolves win	22%	44%	−22
Over 2.5 goals	51%	53%	−2
Both teams to score	51%	57%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	75%	76%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	32%	−3
Burnley or draw	78%	56%	+22
Burnley clean sheet	37%	–	–
Wolves clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 7.0 6.4 3.4 1 11.1 11.3 5.6 2 9.7 9.4 4.7 3 5.7 5.4 2.7 4 2.6 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Burnley down, Wolves across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,904 Championship matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.0% of games this season, across 119 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.86 goals a meeting; 1 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Burnley at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Wolves away: 1.60 scored, 1.60 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for Burnley, 1.00 for Wolves. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 16 Oct 19:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.86

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~BUR 1–1 WOL · WOL 2–3 BUR · WOL 2–0 BUR · BUR 1–1 WOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 1 Sept

BURNLEY

LDLDWD1–2 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 2–2

WOLVES

LDWWLL2–4 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea	10	+9	23
2	Middlesbrough	10	+6	21
3	West Ham	10	+17	19
4	Birmingham	10	+6	17
5	QPR	10	+6	17
6	West Brom	10	+2	17
7	Southampton	10	+11	16
8	Stoke City	10	+1	16
9	Blackburn	10	+2	15
10	Wolves	9	+2	14
11	Millwall	10	0	14
12	Bristol City	10	−2	14
13	Charlton	10	−3	14
14	Bolton	10	−3	13
15	Sheffield Utd	10	0	12
16	Portsmouth	9	−1	11
17	Wrexham	10	−4	11
18	Lincoln	10	−10	11
19	Cardiff	10	+1	10
20	Norwich	10	−3	9
21	Burnley	10	−4	8
22	Watford	10	−11	8
23	Derby	10	−10	6
24	Preston	10	−12	4