Burnley v Charlton prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Burnley 2–2 Charlton BURNLEY WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Burnley win~~60%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.962

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.940

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Burnley win at 60%.
0′KICK-OFF Burnley v Charlton
1′Little has changed for our model: Burnley 60% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 61–24–15
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Burnley 1–0 Charlton · Jacob Bruun Larsen
40′Burnley ahead on 36′ through Jacob Bruun Larsen. 1–0. 1–0 · 85–12–3
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Burnley win: 60% at kick-off, 85% now
41′We said Burnley at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–12–3
42′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 85–12–2
45′SECOND HALF Burnley 1–0 Charlton
49′⚽ GOAL · 51' Burnley 1–0 Charlton · Kayne Ramsay
50′Kayne Ramsay scores for Charlton on 50′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 43–43–14
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Burnley 1–1 Charlton · Kayne Ramsay
51′We said Burnley at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 42%. 1–1 · 42–44–14
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Burnley win: 60% at kick-off, 43% now
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Burnley win: 60% at kick-off, 40% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Burnley win 40%)
56′We said Burnley at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–48–13
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Burnley 2–1 Charlton · Kayne Ramsay
56′⚽ GOAL · 57' Burnley 2–1 Charlton · Largie Ramazani
57′57′ and it is 2–1: Largie Ramazani on the scoresheet for Burnley. 2–1 · 87–12–2
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Burnley win: 60% at kick-off, 87% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Burnley win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 12%)
58′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 87–12–2
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Conor Coventry · Charlton
65′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Igor Júlio · Burnley
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Burnley · On: Armando Broja · Off: Jamie Vardy Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Burnley · On: Marcus Edwards · Off: Jacob Bruun Larsen Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Charlton · On: Micah Mbick · Off: Miles Leaburn Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Charlton · On: Harvey Knibbs · Off: Dan McNamara Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Charlton · On: Ivan Mesik · Off: Amari Bell Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Charlton · On: Harvey Knibbs · Off: Dan McNamara Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Charlton · On: Charlie Kelman · Off: Oliver Skipp Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Burnley · On: Andréas Hountondji · Off: Largie Ramazani Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Charlton · On: Millenic Alli · Off: Tyreece Campbell Corrected
89′We said Burnley at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–1 · 97–2–0
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Burnley win: 60% at kick-off, 97% now
91′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Burnley · On: Hjalmar Ekdal · Off: Anel Ahmedhodzic Corrected
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Burnley · On: Hjalmar Ekdal · Off: Anel Ahmedhodzic Corrected
94′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Max Alleyne · Burnley
96′⚽ GOAL · 96' Burnley 2–2 Charlton · Kayne Ramsay
FTFULL TIME Burnley 2–2 Charlton
FTBurnley 2–2 Charlton · Burnley win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Burnley win60%

Draw24%

Charlton win15%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

VenueTurf Moor

RefereeAnthony Backhouse

Line-ups

Burnley

4-2-3-1

Charlton

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Burnley

Charlton

3Days since last match3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Charlton	9	−3	13
22	Burnley	9	−4	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Burnley set for 2027 player boost as confirmed by Nicky HayenFootball League World · 1 day ago · Burnley

Ex-Liverpool and Burnley player forced to retire at 22 due to health conditionFootball League World · 1 day ago · Liverpool, Burnley

Burnley take cheeky swipe at Elton John after concerning Watford commentFootball League World · 1 day ago · Burnley, Watford

Sheffield United defender set to leave in 2027 - Charlton & Portsmouth must be readyFootball League World · 1 day ago · Charlton, Portsmouth

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Burnley

4-2-3-1

37 G. Coudert

2 K. Walker

15 A. Ahmedhodzic

44 Igor

23 Lucas Pires

3 M. Alleyne

5 R. Hatate

19 L. Ramazani

29 J. Laurent

7 J. Bruun Larsen

9 J. Vardy

Coach · Nicky Hayen

Substitutes

1 · M. Weiss

22 · O. Sonne

14 · C. Roberts

18 · H. Ekdal

8 · U. Raghouber

27 · A. Broja

17 · A. Hountondji

30 · L. Castell

10 · M. Edwards

Charlton

3-4-2-1

13 A. Okonkwo

2 K. Ramsay

5 L. Jones

12 B. Koumetio

20 D. McNamara

34 O. Skipp

6 C. Coventry

17 A. Bell

9 K. Grant

7 T. Campbell

11 M. Leaburn

Coach · Nathan Jones

Substitutes

25 · W. Mannion

18 · I. Mesik

44 · T. Bindon

8 · H. Knibbs

14 · S. Carey

32 · A. Mwamba

23 · C. Kelman

19 · M. Alli

33 · M. Mbick

Our number · burnley winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

60% The market58%

Us60%

~~Market~~58%

We make Burnley a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · burnley win The market, margin stripped

Published at 59%, 60% now. The market has gone from 55% to 58% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Burnley win	60%	58%	+2
Draw	24%	24%	0
Charlton win	15%	18%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	43%	52%	−9
Both teams to score	41%	51%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	69%	74%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	22%	31%	−9
Burnley or draw	85%	82%	+2
Burnley clean sheet	50%	–	–
Charlton clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.1%

0123450 9.6 6.2 2.3 1 15.1 11.0 3.8 2 12.9 9.0 3.2 3 7.3 5.0 4 3.2 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Burnley down, Charlton across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,892 Championship matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.7% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Burnley at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Charlton away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Burnley, 0.70 for Charlton. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 13 Oct 19:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Championship since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Championship

BURNLEY

DLDLDW1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 4–0

CHARLTON

DLDDLD1–1 · 0–4 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea	9	+8	20
2	Middlesbrough	9	+5	18
3	Southampton	9	+10	17
4	West Ham	9	+11	16
5	Stoke City	9	+2	16
6	Wolves	8	+4	14
7	QPR	9	+3	14
8	Birmingham	9	+2	14
9	Millwall	9	+1	14
10	West Brom	9	+1	14
11	Bristol City	9	−1	14
12	Charlton	9	−3	13
13	Blackburn	9	+1	12
14	Sheffield Utd	9	+1	12
15	Wrexham	9	−3	11
16	Lincoln	9	−4	11
17	Bolton	9	−5	10
18	Norwich	9	−2	9
19	Portsmouth	8	−2	8
20	Watford	9	−7	8
21	Cardiff	9	−3	7
22	Burnley	9	−4	7
23	Derby	9	−7	6
24	Preston	9	−8	4