Bristol City v Sheffield Utd prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Bristol City 0–1 Sheffield Utd SHEFFIELD UTD WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sheffield Utd win~~37%

~~The market said~~26%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.605

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.848

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sheffield Utd win at 37%.
1′KICK-OFF Bristol City v Sheffield Utd
2′Much as we predicted: Sheffield Utd was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 36–27–37
6′Sheffield Utd find the net on 5′. 0–0 · 36–28–36
7′We published Sheffield Utd at 37%. Our model now makes it 64%. 0–1 · 15–21–64
7′⚽ GOAL · 5' Bristol City 0–1 Sheffield Utd · Oliver Arblaster
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Sheffield Utd win: 37% at kick-off, 64% now
9′5′: Oliver Arblaster on the scoresheet for Sheffield Utd, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 15–21–64
9′We published Sheffield Utd at 37%. Our model now makes it 64%. 0–1 · 15–21–64
10′We published Sheffield Utd at 37%. Our model now makes it 65%. 0–1 · 15–21–65
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Sheffield Utd win: 37% at kick-off, 67% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 11–22–67
42′We published Sheffield Utd at 37%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 9–22–70
45′HALF-TIME Bristol City 0–1 Sheffield Utd
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Bristol City · On: Elijah Adebayo · Off: Scott Twine
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Bristol City · On: Jed Wallace · Off: George Tanner
46′SECOND HALF Bristol City 0–1 Sheffield Utd
58′We published Sheffield Utd at 37%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Sheffield Utd win: 37% at kick-off, 77% now
69′We published Sheffield Utd at 37%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Sheffield Utd · On: Patrick Bamford · Off: Jordan Ayew
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Sheffield Utd · On: Sam McCallum · Off: Tahith Chong
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Bristol City · On: Brian de Keersmaecker · Off: Gibson Osahumen Yah
76′We published Sheffield Utd at 37%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 1–14–85
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Sheffield Utd win: 37% at kick-off, 87% now
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Sheffield Utd · On: Sydie Peck · Off: Oliver Arblaster
82′We published Sheffield Utd at 37%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
86′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Sheffield Utd · On: Ryan One · Off: Ben Brereton
86′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Sheffield Utd · On: Romelle Donovan · Off: Mark McGuinness
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Bristol City · On: Tomi Horvat · Off: Jason Knight
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Bristol City · On: Sam Bellis · Off: Yu Hirakawa
88′We published Sheffield Utd at 37%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Sheffield Utd · On: Jamal Baptiste · Off: Thomas Cannon
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Sheffield Utd win: 37% at kick-off, 97% now
97′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Brian de Keersmaecker · Bristol City
FTFULL TIME Bristol City 0–1 Sheffield Utd
FTBristol City 0–1 Sheffield Utd · Sheffield Utd win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Sheffield Utd just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Bristol City 36%, draw 27%, Sheffield Utd 37%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Bristol City v Sheffield UtdBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bristol City win36%

Draw27%

Sheffield Utd win37%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueAshton Gate Stadium

RefereeBen Speedie

Line-ups

Bristol City

4-2-3-1

Sheffield Utd

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bristol City

Sheffield Utd

4Days since last match3

Last match: 13 Oct · the English Championship

Last match: 14 Oct · the English Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Bristol City	10	−2	14
15	Sheffield Utd	10	0	12

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Sheffield United won’t believe what’s going on at Stoke City right nowFootball League World · 17 Oct 07:45 · Sheffield Utd, Stoke City

Billy Sharp reveals Celtic transfer situation he faced at Sheffield UnitedFootball League World · 15 Oct 19:00 · Celtic, Sheffield Utd

Middlesbrough U-turn could have haunted Bristol City, but something has changedFootball League World · 15 Oct 07:35 · Middlesbrough, Bristol City

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bristol City

4-2-3-1

1 S. Tickle

19 G. Tanner

15 L. McNally

5 R. Atkinson

3 C. Pring

12 J. Knight

27 G. Yah

21 R. Cardines

10 S. Twine

7 Y. Hirakawa

23 D. Ballard

Coach · Roy Hodgson

Substitutes

40 · B. Collins

2 · L. Eissat

20 · S. Greenwood

14 · T. Horvat

4 · A. Randell

6 · B. De Keersmaecker

17 · J. Wallace

45 · E. Adebayo

11 · S. Bell

Sheffield Utd

4-4-2

1 M. Cooper

5 J. Tanganga

25 M. McGuinness

15 L. Kitching

14 H. Burrows

22 B. Brereton Diaz

27 K. Phillips

4 O. Arblaster

19 T. Chong

9 T. Cannon

10 J. Ayew

Coach · Chris Wilder

Substitutes

17 · A. Davies

33 · J. Baptiste

3 · S. McCallum

7 · J. Rothwell

42 · S. Peck

45 · P. Bamford

23 · T. Campbell

26 · R. One

11 · R. Donovan

Our number · sheffield utd winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

37% The market26%

Us37%

~~Market~~26%

We make Sheffield Utd a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 26%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bristol City v Sheffield Utd~~1.28 – 1.29

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 14 v 12~~12 v 15

~~The market · Sheffield Utd win~~26% · ours 37%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sheffield Utd win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 26% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bristol City win	36%	47%	−11
Draw	27%	27%	0
Sheffield Utd win	37%	26%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	47%	50%	−3
Both teams to score	52%	54%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	73%	74%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	26%	29%	−3
Bristol City or draw	63%	74%	−11
Bristol City clean sheet	28%	–	–
Sheffield Utd clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.0 9.6 6.4 2.8 1 9.6 12.8 8.1 3.5 2 6.3 8.0 5.2 2.2 3 2.7 3.5 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bristol City down, Sheffield Utd across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,905 Championship matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.3% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bristol City at home: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Sheffield Utd away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Bristol City, 1.29 for Sheffield Utd. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BRI 1–0 SHE · SHE 1–4 BRI · SHE 3–0 BRI · BRI 0–3 SHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 5 Sept

BRISTOL CITY

WLLWDL2–1 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

SHEFFIELD UTD

LWLLWL1–3 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea	10	+9	23
2	Middlesbrough	10	+6	21
3	West Ham	10	+17	19
4	Birmingham	10	+6	17
5	QPR	10	+6	17
6	Wolves	10	+3	17
7	West Brom	10	+2	17
8	Southampton	10	+11	16
9	Stoke City	10	+1	16
10	Blackburn	10	+2	15
11	Millwall	10	0	14
12	Bristol City	10	−2	14
13	Charlton	10	−3	14
14	Bolton	10	−3	13
15	Sheffield Utd	10	0	12
16	Portsmouth	9	−1	11
17	Wrexham	10	−4	11
18	Lincoln	10	−10	11
19	Cardiff	10	+1	10
20	Norwich	10	−3	9
21	Burnley	11	−5	8
22	Watford	10	−11	8
23	Derby	10	−10	6
24	Preston	10	−12	4