Bristol City v Blackburn prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Bristol City 0–1 Blackburn BRISTOL CITY WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bristol City win~~44%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.779

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.817

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bristol City win at 44%.
0′Much as we predicted: Bristol City was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–27–29
0′KICK-OFF Bristol City v Blackburn
26′9.0 shots for Bristol City, 0.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 39–34–27
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Bristol City 0–1 Blackburn
37′⚽ GOAL · 38' Bristol City 0–1 Blackburn
40′38′ and it is 0–1: Oladapo Afolayan on the scoresheet for Blackburn. 0–1 · 11–25–64
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Bristol City win: 44% at kick-off, 11% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Blackburn win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Bristol City win 11%)
41′We said Bristol City at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–25–64
42′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 11–24–65
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Bristol City · On: Yu Hirakawa · Off: Sam Greenwood Corrected
45′SECOND HALF Bristol City 0–1 Blackburn
47′We said Bristol City at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Blackburn · On: Moussa·Baradji · Off: Todd Cantwell Corrected
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Blackburn · On: Augustus Kargbo · Off: Ryoya Morishita Corrected
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Blackburn · On: J. Fevrier · Off: Oladapo Afolayan Corrected
64′Bristol City have had 12.0 attempts to 1.0 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 5–21–75
65′We said Bristol City at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Bristol City win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
66′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Bristol City · On: Brian de Keersmaecker · Off: Jason Knight Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Bristol City · On: Tomi Horvat · Off: Scott Twine Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Blackburn · On: Andri Guðjohnsen · Off: Kristi Montgomery Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Bristol City · On: Rio Cardines · Off: George Tanner Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Bristol City · On: Elijah Adebayo · Off: Jed Wallace Corrected
93′Bristol City have had 20.0 attempts to 3.0 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 0–2–98
FTFULL TIME Bristol City 0–1 Blackburn
FTBristol City 0–1 Blackburn · Bristol City win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Bristol City win44%

Draw28%

Blackburn win29%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

VenueAshton Gate Stadium

RefereeDavid Webb

Line-ups

Bristol City

4-2-3-1

Blackburn

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Bristol City

Blackburn

3Days since last match3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Bristol City	9	−1	14
13	Blackburn	9	+1	12

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Hull City midfield ace set to leave in 2027 - Blackburn & Sheffield Wednesday must moveFootball League World · 1 day ago · Hull City, Blackburn, Sheffield Wednesday

Blackburn star set to be available for £0 - Birmingham & Derby can find a bargainFootball League World · 1 day ago · Blackburn, Birmingham, Derby

He played at the World Cup after QPR, Cardiff City spells - he’s now clubless at 36Football League World · 2 days ago · Cardiff, Blackburn, Rangers, Junior

In-form Stoke City striker set to depart in 2027 - Blackburn & Bolton should pounceFootball League World · 2 days ago · Stoke City, Blackburn, Bolton

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bristol City

4-2-3-1

1 S. Tickle

19 G. Tanner

2 L. Eissat

5 R. Atkinson

3 C. Pring

12 J. Knight

27 G. Yah

17 J. Wallace

20 S. Greenwood

10 S. Twine

23 D. Ballard

Coach · Roy Hodgson

Substitutes

40 · B. Collins

15 · L. McNally

21 · R. Cardines

14 · T. Horvat

4 · A. Randell

6 · B. De Keersmaecker

45 · E. Adebayo

11 · S. Bell

7 · Y. Hirakawa

Blackburn

3-4-2-1

22 B. Toth

6 T. Atcheson

17 H. Carter

15 S. McLoughlin

2 R. Alebiosu

8 S. Morsy

31 K. Montgomery

3 H. Pickering

25 R. Morishita

21 O. Afolayan

10 T. Cantwell

Coach · Tony Mowbray

Substitutes

1 · A. Pears

27 · G. Beyuku

30 · J. Garrett

14 · D. De Neve

24 · M. Baradji

7 · A. Kargbo

11 · J. Fevrier

29 · M. Jorgensen

9 · A. Gudjohnsen

Our number · bristol city winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

44% The market43%

Us44%

~~Market~~43%

We make Bristol City a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bristol city win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 48% to 43% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bristol City win	44%	43%	+1
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Blackburn win	29%	28%	0
Over 2.5 goals	43%	47%	−3
Both teams to score	48%	52%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	70%	71%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	22%	26%	−4
Bristol City or draw	71%	72%	0
Bristol City clean sheet	35%	–	–
Blackburn clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 9.4 9.1 4.9 1 11.9 13.1 6.7 2.3 2 8.3 8.7 4.5 3 3.8 4.0 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bristol City down, Blackburn across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,892 Championship matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.7% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.80 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bristol City at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Blackburn away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Bristol City, 1.05 for Blackburn. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 13 Oct 19:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BLA 1–2 BRI · BRI 0–1 BLA · BRI 2–1 BLA · BLA 3–0 BRI

Form · last six in Championship

BRISTOL CITY

WWLLWD3–1 · 2–1 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

BLACKBURN

DLLWDW0–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea	9	+8	20
2	Middlesbrough	9	+5	18
3	Southampton	9	+10	17
4	West Ham	9	+11	16
5	Stoke City	9	+2	16
6	Wolves	8	+4	14
7	QPR	9	+3	14
8	Birmingham	9	+2	14
9	Millwall	9	+1	14
10	West Brom	9	+1	14
11	Bristol City	9	−1	14
12	Charlton	9	−3	13
13	Blackburn	9	+1	12
14	Sheffield Utd	9	+1	12
15	Wrexham	9	−3	11
16	Lincoln	9	−4	11
17	Bolton	9	−5	10
18	Norwich	9	−2	9
19	Portsmouth	8	−2	8
20	Watford	9	−7	8
21	Cardiff	9	−3	7
22	Burnley	9	−4	7
23	Derby	9	−7	6
24	Preston	9	−8	4