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Bolton v Stoke City

Bolton

1–2Full time

Stoke City

Championship · SAT 10 OCT · Toughsheet Community Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Bolton 1–2 Stoke City BOLTON WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bolton win~~45%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.773

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.597

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bolton win at 45%.
3′Much as we predicted: Bolton was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–26–29
3′KICK-OFF Bolton v Stoke City
21′A red card for Stoke City on 20′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 42–30–28
21′🟥 RED CARD · 20' Maksym Taloverov · Stoke City
35′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Jack Mcglynn · Stoke City
45′45′ and it is 0–1: Lamine Cissé on the scoresheet for Stoke City. 0–1 · 11–25–64
45′⚽ GOAL · 49' Bolton 0–1 Stoke City · Lamine Cissé (assist Ethan Galbraith)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Bolton win: 45% at kick-off, 11% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Stoke City win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Bolton win 11%)
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Bolton · On: Atsuki Ito · Off: Ethan Erhahon Corrected
45′SECOND HALF Bolton 0–1 Stoke City
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Bolton · On: Jayden Nelson · Off: Thierry Gale Corrected
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Bolton · On: Samuel Iling · Off: Kyliane Dong Corrected
58′🟥 RED CARD · 20' Maksym Taloverov · Stoke City
58′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Jack Mcglynn · Stoke City
58′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Stoke City · On: Luca Bombino · Off: Justin Devenny Corrected
58′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Bolton · On: Atsuki Ito · Off: Ethan Erhahon Corrected
58′⚽ GOAL · 49' Bolton 0–1 Stoke City · Lamine Cissé (assist Ethan Galbraith)
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Bolton · On: Jayden Nelson · Off: Thierry Gale Corrected
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Bolton · On: Samuel Iling · Off: Kyliane Dong Corrected
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Bolton 0–2 Stoke City · Lamine Cissé
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Bolton 0–2 Stoke City · Ben Wilmot
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Bolton · On: Ryan Hardie · Off: Ruben Rodrigues Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Stoke City · On: Bosun Lawal · Off: El Hadji Soumare Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Stoke City · On: George Hirst · Off: Lamine Cissé Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Stoke City · On: Junior Tchamadeu · Off: Jack Mcglynn Corrected
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Max Conway · Bolton
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Bolton · On: Thelonius Bair · Off: Ben Davies Corrected
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' Bolton 1–2 Stoke City · Ben Wilmot
92′⚽ GOAL · 92' Bolton 1–2 Stoke City · Thelonius Bair
FTFULL TIME Bolton 1–2 Stoke City
FTBolton 1–2 Stoke City · Bolton win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Bolton win45%

Draw26%

Stoke City win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Bolton & Millwall should move for Swansea City ace in 2027Football League World · 7 hours ago · Bolton, Millwall, Swansea, Wanderers

The reason why ex-Huddersfield Town & Stoke City star Ramadan Sobhi is facing jailFootball League World · 8 hours ago · Huddersfield, Stoke City

Barnsley backed to land ex-Stoke City star in £0 transfer on one conditionFootball League World · 20 hours ago · Barnsley, Stoke City

£3m Stoke City player pens emotional message after suffering new setbackFootball League World · 21 hours ago · Stoke City, Chelsea

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Toughsheet Community Stadium

Referee · Thomas Kirk

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Bolton

4-2-3-1

31 G. Bazunu

22 G. Larrazabal

18 E. Toal

6 B. Davies

25 M. Conway

8 J. Sheehan

21 E. Erhahon

7 K. Dong

20 R. Rodrigues

11 T. Gale

10 S. Dalby

Coach · Steven Schumacher

Substitutes

1 · J. Bonham

5 · L. Brunt

14 · A. Famewo

4 · X. Simons

17 · A. Ito

9 · T. Bair

26 · J. Nelson

16 · S. Iling Junior

39 · R. Hardie

Stoke City

3-4-3

1 V. Johansson

16 B. Wilmot

40 M. Talovierov

5 L. Graham

2 B. Johnson

27 D. Soumare

8 E. Galbraith

17 E. Bocat

7 J. McGlynn

11 L. Cisse

13 J. Devenny

Coach · Mark Robins

Substitutes

24 · J. Griffiths

22 · J. Tchamadeu

21 · L. Bombino

18 · B. Lawal

4 · B. Pearson

10 · Bae Jun-Ho

9 · R. Bozenik

42 · M. Manhoef

15 · G. Hirst

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Bolton

4-2-3-1

31 G. Bazunu

22 G. Larrazabal

18 E. Toal

6 B. Davies

25 M. Conway

8 J. Sheehan

21 E. Erhahon

7 K. Dong

20 R. Rodrigues

11 T. Gale

10 S. Dalby

Coach · Steven Schumacher

Substitutes

1 · J. Bonham

5 · L. Brunt

14 · A. Famewo

4 · X. Simons

17 · A. Ito

9 · T. Bair

26 · J. Nelson

16 · S. Iling Junior

39 · R. Hardie

Stoke City

3-4-3

1 V. Johansson

16 B. Wilmot

40 M. Talovierov

5 L. Graham

2 B. Johnson

27 D. Soumare

8 E. Galbraith

17 E. Bocat

7 J. McGlynn

11 L. Cisse

13 J. Devenny

Coach · Mark Robins

Substitutes

24 · J. Griffiths

22 · J. Tchamadeu

21 · L. Bombino

18 · B. Lawal

4 · B. Pearson

10 · Bae Jun-Ho

9 · R. Bozenik

42 · M. Manhoef

15 · G. Hirst

Our number · bolton winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

45% The market34%

Us45%

~~Market~~34%

We make Bolton a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bolton win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 35% to 34% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bolton win	45%	34%	+10
Draw	26%	29%	−2
Stoke City win	29%	37%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	49%	49%	+1
Both teams to score	53%	55%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	74%	72%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	28%	29%	−1
Bolton or draw	71%	63%	+8
Bolton clean sheet	32%	–	–
Stoke City clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.6 7.8 4.7 1 10.2 12.4 6.9 2.7 2 7.9 8.9 5.2 2.0 3 4.0 4.5 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bolton down, Stoke City across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,881 Championship matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Bolton at home: 1.25 scored, 1.25 conceded a game (last 4). Stoke City away: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Bolton, 1.16 for Stoke City. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:33. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Championship

BOLTON

LLLLWW0–1 · 2–3 · 0–4 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 4–3

STOKE CITY

LWWDWW1–4 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea	8	+7	17
2	West Ham	9	+11	16
3	Middlesbrough	8	+4	15
4	Southampton	8	+9	14
5	Wolves	7	+5	14
6	QPR	9	+3	14
7	West Brom	8	+2	14
8	Stoke City	8	+1	13
9	Bristol City	8	−1	13
10	Charlton	8	−3	12
11	Birmingham	8	+1	11
12	Millwall	8	0	11
13	Lincoln	8	−1	11
14	Wrexham	8	−3	10
15	Bolton	8	−4	10
16	Blackburn	8	0	9
17	Norwich	8	−1	9
18	Sheffield Utd	8	−2	9
19	Portsmouth	7	−1	8
20	Watford	8	−3	8
21	Cardiff	8	−2	7
22	Derby	8	−7	5
23	Preston	8	−7	4
24	Burnley	8	−8	4