Bolton v Middlesbrough prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 22:30

Bolton 1–5 Middlesbrough MIDDLESBROUGH WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Middlesbrough win~~40%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.554

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.258

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Middlesbrough win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Middlesbrough was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 35–25–39
1′KICK-OFF Bolton v Middlesbrough
14′13′: Aidan Morris on the scoresheet for Middlesbrough, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 14–20–66
14′We published Middlesbrough at 40%. Our model now makes it 66%. 0–1 · 14–20–66
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Bolton 0–1 Middlesbrough · Aidan Morris
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Middlesbrough win: 40% at kick-off, 66% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 12–21–68
32′Middlesbrough ahead on 31′ through will lankshear. 0–2. 0–2 · 3–8–89
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Bolton 0–2 Middlesbrough
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Middlesbrough win: 40% at kick-off, 89% now
33′We published Middlesbrough at 40%. Our model now makes it 89%. 0–2 · 3–8–89
36′We published Middlesbrough at 40%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–2 · 3–8–90
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Middlesbrough win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
40′We published Middlesbrough at 40%. Our model now makes it 98%. 0–3 · 0–2–98
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Bolton 0–3 Middlesbrough
41′A.Malanda scores for Middlesbrough on 39′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–2–98
42′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–2–98
45′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 2–7–91
45′45′: Thelonius Bair on the scoresheet for Bolton, making it 1–3. 1–3 · 2–7–91
45′HALF-TIME Bolton 1–3 Middlesbrough
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Bolton · On: Max Conway · Off: Akin Famewo
45′SECOND HALF Bolton 1–3 Middlesbrough
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Bolton · On: Atsuki Ito · Off: Ruben Rodrigues
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Bolton 1–3 Middlesbrough
55′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Bolton · On: Sam Dalby · Off: Thelonius Bair
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Bolton · On: Ryan Hardie · Off: Ethan Erhahon
64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Ashley Phillips · Middlesbrough
64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Riley McGree · Middlesbrough
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Middlesbrough · On: Max Arfsten · Off: Tommy Conway
73′We published Middlesbrough at 40%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–4 · 0–0–100
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Bolton 1–4 Middlesbrough
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Middlesbrough win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
74′Middlesbrough ahead on 73′ through Amario Cozier-Duberry. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
75′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Bolton · On: Xavier Simons · Off: Kyliane Dong
78′6 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–5 · 0–0–100
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Bolton 1–5 Middlesbrough
79′will lankshear scores for Middlesbrough on 78′ — 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Middlesbrough · On: Leo Castledine · Off: Riley McGree
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Middlesbrough · On: Jeremy Sarmiento · Off: Amario Cozier-Duberry
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Middlesbrough · On: Kyle Joseph · Off: will lankshear
81′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Josh Sheehan · Bolton
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Middlesbrough · On: Myles Peart-Harris · Off: Sebastian Berhalter
FTFULL TIME Bolton 1–5 Middlesbrough
FTBolton 1–5 Middlesbrough · Middlesbrough win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Middlesbrough are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bolton 35%, draw 25%, Middlesbrough 40%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Bolton v MiddlesbroughBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Bolton win35%

Draw25%

Middlesbrough win40%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueToughsheet Community Stadium

RefereeSimon Hooper

Line-ups

Bolton

4-2-3-1

Middlesbrough

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bolton

Middlesbrough

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · the English Championship

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Middlesbrough	11	+6	22
15	Bolton	11	−3	14

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Stoke City can laugh to the bank after repeating Middlesbrough transfer trickFootball League World · 23 Oct 18:15 · Stoke City, Middlesbrough

Footage of Middlesbrough players dancing sparks online reactionFootball League World · 23 Oct 07:00 · Middlesbrough

4 players set to miss Bolton Wanderers v Middlesbrough ft £4.3m starFootball League World · 22 Oct 19:30 · Bolton, Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough star faces bittersweet Steven Schumacher situation - Bolton would hate thisFootball League World · 22 Oct 12:00 · Middlesbrough, Bolton

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bolton

4-2-3-1

31 G. Bazunu

22 Gaizka Larrazabal

18 E. Toal

5 L. Brunt

14 A. Famewo

8 J. Sheehan

21 E. Erhahon

7 K. Dong

20 Ruben Rodrigues

11 T. Gale

9 T. Bair

Coach · S. Schumacher

Substitutes

1 · J. Bonham

25 · M. Conway

10 · S. Dalby

6 · B. Davies

39 · R. Hardie

16 · S. Iling-Junior

17 · A. Ito

4 · X. Simons

27 · Luca Stephenson

Middlesbrough

4-2-3-1

1 R. Vítek

2 C. Brittain

4 A. Phillips

29 A. Malanda

30 Neto Borges

10 A. Morris

6 S. Berhalter

11 A. Cozier-Duberry

8 R. McGree

9 T. Conway

7 W. Lankshear

Coach · K. Hellberg

Substitutes

16 · J. Sarmiento

14 · M. Peart-Harris

22 · K. Joseph

19 · Leo Castledine

3 · S. Byram

31 · S. Brynn

18 · C. Barron

12 · L. Ayling

17 · M. Arfsten

Our number · middlesbrough winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 23 Oct 04:05 · locked at kick-off

40% The market59%

Us40%

~~Market~~59%

We make Middlesbrough a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 19 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bolton v Middlesbrough~~1.37 – 1.47

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 8 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 14 v 22~~15 v 3

~~The market · Middlesbrough win~~59% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Middlesbrough win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bolton win	35%	20%	+15
Draw	25%	22%	+3
Middlesbrough win	40%	59%	−19
Over 2.5 goals	54%	63%	−9
Both teams to score	57%	61%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	78%	82%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	32%	43%	−11
Bolton or draw	60%	41%	+19
Bolton clean sheet	23%	–	–
Middlesbrough clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.2 8.4 6.3 3.1 1 7.9 11.8 8.5 4.2 2 5.5 7.9 5.8 2.9 3 2.5 3.7 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bolton down, Middlesbrough across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,917 Championship matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.4% of games this season, across 132 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bolton at home: 1.20 scored, 1.40 conceded a game (last 5). Middlesbrough away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Bolton, 1.47 for Middlesbrough. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~BOL 1–3 MID

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 8 Sept

BOLTON

LWWLWD2–3 · 1–0 · 4–3 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 0–0

MIDDLESBROUGH

WDDWWD4–3 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea	11	+8	23
2	West Ham	11	+18	22
3	Middlesbrough	11	+6	22
4	Birmingham	11	+9	20
5	West Brom	11	+3	20
6	Stoke City	11	+2	19
7	Wolves	11	+3	18
8	Southampton	11	+11	17
9	QPR	11	+3	17
10	Blackburn	11	+1	15
11	Sheffield Utd	11	+1	15
12	Millwall	11	0	15
13	Portsmouth	11	0	15
14	Wrexham	11	−1	14
15	Bolton	11	−3	14
16	Bristol City	11	−3	14
17	Charlton	11	−5	14
18	Lincoln	11	−10	12
19	Cardiff	11	+1	11
20	Watford	11	−9	11
21	Norwich	11	−4	9
22	Burnley	11	−5	8
23	Derby	11	−11	6
24	Preston	11	−15	4