Bolton v Bristol City prediction · Championship

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BoltonDrawBristol City

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Bolton 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bolton are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bolton 42%, draw 26%, Bristol City 32%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Bolton v Bristol CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Bolton win42%

Draw26%

Bristol City win32%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueToughsheet Community Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bolton

Bristol City

8Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · the English Championship

Last match: 24 Oct · the English Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Bristol City	12	−3	15
18	Bolton	12	−7	14

In the news

from the pressAll ›

4 players set to miss Bolton Wanderers v Middlesbrough ft £4.3m starFootball League World · 22 Oct 19:30 · Bolton, Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough star faces bittersweet Steven Schumacher situation - Bolton would hate thisFootball League World · 22 Oct 12:00 · Middlesbrough, Bolton

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bolton winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Bolton a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bolton v Bristol City~~1.49 – 1.27

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 14 v 15~~18 v 14

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bolton win	42%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Bristol City win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Bolton or draw	68%	–	–
Bolton clean sheet	28%	–	–
Bristol City clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 6.7 7.9 5.1 2.2 1 9.3 12.1 7.5 3.2 2 7.0 8.7 5.5 2.4 3 3.5 4.4 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bolton down, Bristol City across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,929 Championship matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 144 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Bolton at home: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Bristol City away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Bolton, 1.27 for Bristol City. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 12 Sept

BOLTON

WWLWDL1–0 · 4–3 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 1–5

BRISTOL CITY

LWDLLD0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Middlesbrough	12	+10	25
2	Swansea	12	+3	23
3	West Ham	12	+17	22
4	Wolves	12	+4	21
5	West Brom	12	+3	21
6	Southampton	12	+12	20
7	Birmingham	12	+8	20
8	QPR	12	+8	20
9	Stoke City	12	+2	20
10	Blackburn	12	+3	18
11	Portsmouth	12	+1	18
12	Sheffield Utd	12	+1	16
13	Millwall	12	−1	15
14	Bristol City	12	−3	15
15	Lincoln	12	−7	15
16	Cardiff	12	+2	14
17	Wrexham	12	−3	14
18	Bolton	12	−7	14
19	Charlton	12	−7	14
20	Norwich	12	−2	12
21	Watford	12	−10	11
22	Burnley	12	−8	8
23	Derby	12	−11	7
24	Preston	12	−15	5