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Blackburn v Wrexham
Blackburn
WrexhamChampionship · SAT 24 OCT · Ewood Park
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Blackburn win at 39%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Blackburn 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–27–34
- 1′KICK-OFF Blackburn v Wrexham
- 22′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Harry Pickering · Blackburn
- 23′Wrexham have had 7 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 37–32–32
- 26′8 shots for Wrexham, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 36–32–31
- 28′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Dominic Hyam · Wrexham
- 40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Blackburn win 35%)
- 44′We said Blackburn at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–21–8
- 44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Blackburn 1–0 Wrexham
- 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Blackburn win: 39% at kick-off, 72% now
- 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Blackburn win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 40%)
- 45′Andri Guðjohnsen scores for Blackburn on 44′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 72–21–7
- 45′HALF-TIME Blackburn 1–0 Wrexham
- 45′SECOND HALF Blackburn 1–0 Wrexham
- 46′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 72–21–7
- 46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Matty James · Wrexham
- 55′We said Blackburn at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
- 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Wrexham · On: George Dobson · Off: Matty James
- 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Blackburn win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
- 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Wrexham · On: Ben Sheaf · Off: Benjamin Whiteman
- 67′We said Blackburn at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
- 67′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Sam Morsy · Blackburn
- 69′Wrexham have had 19 attempts to 14 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 81–16–3
- 72′20 shots for Wrexham, 14 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 83–15–2
- 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Blackburn · On: Augustus Kargbo · Off: J. Fevrier
- 75′We said Blackburn at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
- 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Wrexham · On: Oliver Rathbone · Off: Dominic Hyam
- 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Wrexham · On: Danny Imray · Off: Issa Kabore
- 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Wrexham · On: Ryan·Longman · Off: Jacques Ekomié
- 80′79′: Andri Guðjohnsen on the scoresheet for Blackburn. 1–0 · 89–10–1
- 80′We said Blackburn at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
- 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Blackburn win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
- 80′⚽ GOAL · 79' Blackburn 2–0 Wrexham · Andri Guðjohnsen
- 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Blackburn win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
- 83′We said Blackburn at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
- 90′2–0 at the end. Our 39% on Blackburn comes in. 2–0 · 100–0–0
- 90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Blackburn · On: Dion De Neve · Off: Andri Guðjohnsen
- 90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Blackburn · On: Jake Garrett · Off: Moussa·Baradji
- FTFULL TIME Blackburn 2–0 Wrexham
- FTBlackburn 2–0 Wrexham · Blackburn win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Blackburn are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Blackburn 39%, draw 27%, Wrexham 34%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Blackburn win39%
Wrexham win34%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00
RoundMatchday 12
VenueEwood Park
RefereeMatthew Corlett
Match timeline
All events
BlackburnMIN
WrexhamEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Blackburn
4-2-3-1
Wrexham
3-4-2-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Blackburn
Wrexham
Last match: 17 Oct · the English Championship
Last match: 17 Oct · the English Championship
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Blackburn
4-2-3-1
22 B. Tóth
2 R. Alebiosu
17 H. Carter
15 S. McLoughlin
3 H. Pickering
8 Sam Morsy
24 M. Baradji
11 J. Fevrier
10 T. Cantwell
21 O. Afolayan
9 A. Guðjohnsen
Coach · Tony Mowbray
Substitutes
1 · A. Pears
16 · S. Wharton
6 · Tom Atcheson
27 · Gady Beyuku
14 · D. De Neve
48 · I. Dunn
30 · J. Garrett
7 · A. Kargbo
39 · H. Pates
Wrexham
3-4-2-1
22 A. Patterson
6 J. Worrall
5 D. Hyam
2 C. Doyle
12 I. Kaboré
37 M. James
8 B. Whiteman
3 J. Ekomié
28 S. Smith
17 C. O'Hare
19 K. Moore
Coach · P. Parkinson
Substitutes
15 · G. Dobson
30 · Daniel Edward Peter Imray
47 · R. Longman
27 · L. O'Brien
20 · O. Rathbone
18 · B. Sheaf
26 · Z. Vyner
21 · D. Ward
11 · B. Cadamarteri
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Blackburn
4-2-3-1
22 B. Tóth
2 R. Alebiosu
17 H. Carter
15 S. McLoughlin
3 H. Pickering
8 Sam Morsy
24 M. Baradji
11 J. Fevrier
10 T. Cantwell
21 O. Afolayan
9 A. Guðjohnsen
Coach · Tony Mowbray
Substitutes
1 · A. Pears
16 · S. Wharton
6 · Tom Atcheson
27 · Gady Beyuku
14 · D. De Neve
48 · I. Dunn
30 · J. Garrett
7 · A. Kargbo
39 · H. Pates
Wrexham
3-4-2-1
22 A. Patterson
6 J. Worrall
5 D. Hyam
2 C. Doyle
12 I. Kaboré
37 M. James
8 B. Whiteman
3 J. Ekomié
28 S. Smith
17 C. O'Hare
19 K. Moore
Coach · P. Parkinson
Substitutes
15 · G. Dobson
30 · Daniel Edward Peter Imray
47 · R. Longman
27 · L. O'Brien
20 · O. Rathbone
18 · B. Sheaf
26 · Z. Vyner
21 · D. Ward
11 · B. Cadamarteri
We make Blackburn a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn win | 39% | 32% | +7 |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | −2 |
| Wrexham win | 34% | 38% | −4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 45% | +3 |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 51% | +2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 25% | +1 |
| Blackburn or draw | 66% | 62% | +4 |
| Blackburn clean sheet | 29% | – | – |
| Wrexham clean sheet | 26% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
3 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Championship this season · since 8 Sept
BLACKBURN
WREXHAM
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 12 | +10 | 25 |
| 2 | Swansea | 11 | +8 | 23 |
| 3 | West Ham | 11 | +18 | 22 |
| 4 | Birmingham | 11 | +9 | 20 |
| 5 | West Brom | 11 | +3 | 20 |
| 6 | Stoke City | 11 | +2 | 19 |
| 7 | Wolves | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 8 | Southampton | 11 | +11 | 17 |
| 9 | QPR | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 10 | Blackburn | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 11 | Sheffield Utd | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 12 | Millwall | 11 | 0 | 15 |
| 13 | Portsmouth | 11 | 0 | 15 |
| 14 | Wrexham | 11 | −1 | 14 |
| 15 | Bristol City | 11 | −3 | 14 |
| 16 | Charlton | 11 | −5 | 14 |
| 17 | Bolton | 12 | −7 | 14 |
| 18 | Lincoln | 11 | −10 | 12 |
| 19 | Cardiff | 11 | +1 | 11 |
| 20 | Watford | 11 | −9 | 11 |
| 21 | Norwich | 11 | −4 | 9 |
| 22 | Burnley | 11 | −5 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 11 | −11 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 11 | −15 | 4 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.


Middlesbrough
Swansea
West Ham
Birmingham
West Brom
Stoke City
Wolves
Southampton
QPR
Sheffield Utd
Millwall
Portsmouth
Bristol City
Charlton
Bolton
Lincoln
Cardiff
Watford
Norwich
Burnley
Derby
Preston