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Model 1.2

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Blackburn v Wrexham

Blackburn
2–0Full time
Wrexham

Championship · SAT 24 OCT · Ewood Park

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
Blackburn 2–0 Wrexham BLACKBURN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Blackburn win39%
The market said32%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.553
The market’s Brier score0.688

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 24 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Blackburn win at 39%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Blackburn 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–27–34
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Blackburn v Wrexham
  4. 22′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Harry Pickering · Blackburn
  5. 23′Wrexham have had 7 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 37–32–32
  6. 26′8 shots for Wrexham, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 36–32–31
  7. 28′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Dominic Hyam · Wrexham
  8. 40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Blackburn win 35%)
  9. 44′We said Blackburn at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–21–8
  10. 44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Blackburn 1–0 Wrexham
  11. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Blackburn win: 39% at kick-off, 72% now
  12. 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Blackburn win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 40%)
  13. 45′Andri Guðjohnsen scores for Blackburn on 44′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 72–21–7
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Blackburn 1–0 Wrexham
  15. 45′SECOND HALF Blackburn 1–0 Wrexham
  16. 46′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 72–21–7
  17. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Matty James · Wrexham
  18. 55′We said Blackburn at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
  19. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Wrexham · On: George Dobson · Off: Matty James
  20. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Blackburn win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
  21. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Wrexham · On: Ben Sheaf · Off: Benjamin Whiteman
  22. 67′We said Blackburn at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
  23. 67′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Sam Morsy · Blackburn
  24. 69′Wrexham have had 19 attempts to 14 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 81–16–3
  25. 72′20 shots for Wrexham, 14 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 83–15–2
  26. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Blackburn · On: Augustus Kargbo · Off: J. Fevrier
  27. 75′We said Blackburn at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
  28. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Wrexham · On: Oliver Rathbone · Off: Dominic Hyam
  29. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Wrexham · On: Danny Imray · Off: Issa Kabore
  30. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Wrexham · On: Ryan·Longman · Off: Jacques Ekomié
  31. 80′79′: Andri Guðjohnsen on the scoresheet for Blackburn. 1–0 · 89–10–1
  32. 80′We said Blackburn at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  33. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Blackburn win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
  34. 80′⚽ GOAL · 79' Blackburn 2–0 Wrexham · Andri Guðjohnsen
  35. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Blackburn win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
  36. 83′We said Blackburn at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  37. 90′2–0 at the end. Our 39% on Blackburn comes in. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  38. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Blackburn · On: Dion De Neve · Off: Andri Guðjohnsen
  39. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Blackburn · On: Jake Garrett · Off: Moussa·Baradji
  40. FTFULL TIME Blackburn 2–0 Wrexham
  41. FTBlackburn 2–0 Wrexham · Blackburn win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Blackburn are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Blackburn 39%, draw 27%, Wrexham 34%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Blackburn v WrexhamBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Blackburn win39%
Draw27%
Wrexham win34%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueEwood Park

RefereeMatthew Corlett

Line-ups

Blackburn

4-2-3-1

Wrexham

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Blackburn

Wrexham

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the English Championship

Last match: 17 Oct · the English Championship

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
10Blackburn11+115
14Wrexham11−114

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Blackburn

4-2-3-1

22 B. Tóth

2 R. Alebiosu

17 H. Carter

15 S. McLoughlin

3 H. Pickering

8 Sam Morsy

24 M. Baradji

11 J. Fevrier

10 T. Cantwell

21 O. Afolayan

9 A. Guðjohnsen

Coach · Tony Mowbray

Substitutes

1 · A. Pears

16 · S. Wharton

6 · Tom Atcheson

27 · Gady Beyuku

14 · D. De Neve

48 · I. Dunn

30 · J. Garrett

7 · A. Kargbo

39 · H. Pates

Wrexham

3-4-2-1

22 A. Patterson

6 J. Worrall

5 D. Hyam

2 C. Doyle

12 I. Kaboré

37 M. James

8 B. Whiteman

3 J. Ekomié

28 S. Smith

17 C. O'Hare

19 K. Moore

Coach · P. Parkinson

Substitutes

15 · G. Dobson

30 · Daniel Edward Peter Imray

47 · R. Longman

27 · L. O'Brien

20 · O. Rathbone

18 · B. Sheaf

26 · Z. Vyner

21 · D. Ward

11 · B. Cadamarteri

Our number · blackburn winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
39% The market32%
Us39%
Market32%

We make Blackburn a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Blackburn v Wrexham1.36 – 1.24
Form · last six in Championship this season · since 8 SeptW3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 15 v 1410 v 14
The market · Blackburn win32% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:15
Our probability · Blackburn win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Blackburn win39%32%+7
Draw27%29%−2
Wrexham win34%38%−4
Over 2.5 goals48%45%+3
Both teams to score53%51%+2
Over 1.5 goals73%70%+3
Over 3.5 goals26%25%+1
Blackburn or draw66%62%+4
Blackburn clean sheet29%––
Wrexham clean sheet26%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%
0123450 7.7 9.1 5.7 2.4 1 9.9 12.6 7.7 3.2 2 6.9 8.4 5.2 2.2 3 3.1 3.8 2.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Blackburn down, Wrexham across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.51 of 3
Both scored2 of 3
Last meetingsBLA 0–2 WRE · WRE 1–1 BLA · BLA 4–1 WRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 8 Sept

BLACKBURN

LWDWWL1–2 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–3

WREXHAM

DLWDLW1–1 · 0–6 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 4–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Middlesbrough12+1025
2Swansea11+823
3West Ham11+1822
4Birmingham11+920
5West Brom11+320
6Stoke City11+219
7Wolves11+318
8Southampton11+1117
9QPR11+317
10Blackburn11+115
11Sheffield Utd11+115
12Millwall11015
13Portsmouth11015
14Wrexham11−114
15Bristol City11−314
16Charlton11−514
17Bolton12−714
18Lincoln11−1012
19Cardiff11+111
20Watford11−911
21Norwich11−49
22Burnley11−58
23Derby11−116
24Preston11−154

The competition's standings before kick-off.