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Blackburn v Cardiff

Blackburn

2–1Full time

Cardiff

Championship · SAT 10 OCT · Ewood Park

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Blackburn 2–1 Cardiff BLACKBURN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Blackburn win~~48%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.410

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.690

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Blackburn win at 48%.
3′Little has changed for our model: Blackburn 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–27–25
3′KICK-OFF Blackburn v Cardiff
26′⚽ GOAL · 28' Blackburn 0–0 Cardiff
29′Andri Guðjohnsen scores for Blackburn on 28′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–17–7
31′Andri Guðjohnsen scores for Blackburn on 28′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–17–6
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Blackburn 1–0 Cardiff · Andri Guðjohnsen
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Blackburn win: 48% at kick-off, 76% now
37′We said Blackburn at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–17–6
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Blackburn 1–0 Cardiff · Todd Cantwell (assist Ryoya Morishita)
40′38′ and it is 2–0: Todd Cantwell on the scoresheet for Blackburn. 2–0 · 95–4–1
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Blackburn 2–0 Cardiff · Todd Cantwell
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Blackburn win: 48% at kick-off, 95% now
44′We said Blackburn at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′SECOND HALF Blackburn 2–0 Cardiff
46′HALF-TIME Blackburn 2–0 Cardiff
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Blackburn 2–1 Cardiff · Callum Robinson
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Cardiff · On: Christopher Willock · Off: C. Ashford Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Blackburn · On: Moussa·Baradji · Off: Andri Guðjohnsen Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Blackburn · On: J. Fevrier · Off: Ryoya Morishita Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Cardiff · On: David Turnbull · Off: Joel Colwill Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Cardiff · On: Isaak Davies · Off: Callum Robinson Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Blackburn · On: Augustus Kargbo · Off: Oladapo Afolayan Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Cardiff · On: Ronan Kpakio · Off: Joel Bagan Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Cardiff · On: Calum Scanlon · Off: Dylan Lawlor Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Blackburn · On: Jake Garrett · Off: Kristi Montgomery Corrected
FTFULL TIME Blackburn 2–1 Cardiff
FTBlackburn 2–1 Cardiff · Blackburn win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Blackburn win48%

Draw27%

Cardiff win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

What’s happened to Nicky Maynard after Bristol City and Cardiff City?Football League World · 7 hours ago · Bristol City, Cardiff

Chris Wilder doesn’t want him at Sheffield United - Cardiff City & Charlton must pounceFootball League World · 7 hours ago · Cardiff, Charlton, Athletic Club

Celtic set to cast eyes over Goalkeeper who has been eyed up by Blackburn & WrexhamFootball League World · 22 hours ago · Celtic, Blackburn, Wrexham

Ex-Celtic midfielder is still a free agent - Blackburn Rovers & Watford must eye him upFootball League World · 22 hours ago · Celtic, Blackburn, Watford, Swansea

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Ewood Park

Referee · Tom Nield

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Blackburn

4-2-3-1

22 B. Toth

2 R. Alebiosu

17 H. Carter

15 S. McLoughlin

3 H. Pickering

8 S. Morsy

31 K. Montgomery

25 R. Morishita

10 T. Cantwell

21 O. Afolayan

9 A. Gudjohnsen

Coach · Tony Mowbray

Substitutes

1 · A. Pears

39 · H. Pates

6 · T. Atcheson

27 · G. Beyuku

30 · J. Garrett

14 · D. De Neve

24 · M. Baradji

7 · A. Kargbo

11 · J. Fevrier

Cardiff

4-2-3-1

1 N. Trott

38 P. Ng

48 D. Lawlor

4 G. Osho

3 J. Bagan

18 A. Robertson

8 J. Moylan

11 O. Tanner

27 J. Colwill

45 C. Ashford

47 C. Robinson

Coach · Brian Barry-Murphy

Substitutes

30 · H. Tyrer

2 · W. Fish

23 · C. Scanlon

44 · R. Kpakio

14 · D. Turnbull

16 · C. Willock

43 · P. Moreno

39 · I. Davies

50 · C. Holt

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Blackburn

4-2-3-1

22 B. Toth

2 R. Alebiosu

17 H. Carter

15 S. McLoughlin

3 H. Pickering

8 S. Morsy

31 K. Montgomery

25 R. Morishita

10 T. Cantwell

21 O. Afolayan

9 A. Gudjohnsen

Coach · Tony Mowbray

Substitutes

1 · A. Pears

39 · H. Pates

6 · T. Atcheson

27 · G. Beyuku

30 · J. Garrett

14 · D. De Neve

24 · M. Baradji

7 · A. Kargbo

11 · J. Fevrier

Cardiff

4-2-3-1

1 N. Trott

38 P. Ng

48 D. Lawlor

4 G. Osho

3 J. Bagan

18 A. Robertson

8 J. Moylan

11 O. Tanner

27 J. Colwill

45 C. Ashford

47 C. Robinson

Coach · Brian Barry-Murphy

Substitutes

30 · H. Tyrer

2 · W. Fish

23 · C. Scanlon

44 · R. Kpakio

14 · D. Turnbull

16 · C. Willock

43 · P. Moreno

39 · I. Davies

50 · C. Holt

Our number · blackburn winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

48% The market33%

Us48%

~~Market~~33%

We make Blackburn a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 15 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · blackburn win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 35% to 33% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Blackburn win	48%	33%	+15
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Cardiff win	25%	41%	−16
Over 2.5 goals	44%	59%	−15
Both teams to score	48%	63%	−14
Over 1.5 goals	70%	79%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	23%	39%	−16
Blackburn or draw	75%	59%	+16
Blackburn clean sheet	37%	–	–
Cardiff clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 9.1 8.2 4.2 1 12.3 12.7 6.1 2.0 2 9.2 9.0 4.4 3 4.5 4.4 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Blackburn down, Cardiff across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,881 Championship matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.12 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Blackburn at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Cardiff away: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Blackburn, 0.99 for Cardiff. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:33. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.12

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~BLA 1–2 CAR · CAR 1–3 BLA · CAR 0–0 BLA · BLA 1–0 CAR

Form · last six in Championship

BLACKBURN

LDLLWD1–2 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 2–2

CARDIFF

DLLDLW2–2 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea	8	+7	17
2	West Ham	9	+11	16
3	Middlesbrough	8	+4	15
4	Southampton	8	+9	14
5	Wolves	7	+5	14
6	QPR	9	+3	14
7	West Brom	8	+2	14
8	Stoke City	8	+1	13
9	Bristol City	8	−1	13
10	Charlton	8	−3	12
11	Birmingham	8	+1	11
12	Millwall	8	0	11
13	Lincoln	8	−1	11
14	Wrexham	8	−3	10
15	Bolton	8	−4	10
16	Blackburn	8	0	9
17	Norwich	8	−1	9
18	Sheffield Utd	8	−2	9
19	Portsmouth	7	−1	8
20	Watford	8	−3	8
21	Cardiff	8	−2	7
22	Derby	8	−7	5
23	Preston	8	−7	4
24	Burnley	8	−8	4