Birmingham v QPR prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Birmingham 3–0 QPR BIRMINGHAM WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Birmingham win~~46%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.435

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.416

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Birmingham win at 46%.
1′KICK-OFF Birmingham v QPR
2′Little has changed for our model: Birmingham 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–27–27
8′Little has changed for our model: Birmingham 46% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–28–27
24′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Birmingham
28′We said Birmingham at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–18–8
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Birmingham 1–0 QPR
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Birmingham win: 46% at kick-off, 74% now
29′Liam Millar scores for Birmingham on 27′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–18–8
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 74–18–8
33′We said Birmingham at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Birmingham win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Harvey Vale · QPR
45′HALF-TIME Birmingham 1–0 QPR
46′SECOND HALF Birmingham 1–0 QPR
49′We said Birmingham at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Birmingham 2–0 QPR
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Birmingham win: 46% at kick-off, 95% now
50′49′: Liam Millar on the scoresheet for Birmingham, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Rayan Jawad Kolli · QPR
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Birmingham win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Birmingham · On: Max Bird · Off: Jhon Elmer Solís Romero
59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Birmingham · On: Carlos Vicente · Off: Patrick Roberts
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' QPR · On: Richard Kone · Off: Rayan Jawad Kolli
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Christoph·Klarer · Birmingham
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Birmingham · On: Demarai Gray · Off: Liam Millar
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' QPR · On: Jonathan Varane · Off: Jake Clarke-Salter
81′We said Birmingham at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' QPR · On: Koki Saito · Off: Paul Smyth
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' QPR · On: Leon Scarlett · Off: Glen Kamara
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Birmingham · On: Luis Vasquez · Off: August Priske
90′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Birmingham 3–0 QPR
91′Birmingham ahead on 90′ through Demarai Gray. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Birmingham 3–0 QPR
FTBirmingham 3–0 QPR · Birmingham win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Birmingham are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Birmingham 46%, draw 26%, QPR 27%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Birmingham v QPRBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Birmingham win46%

Draw26%

QPR win27%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueSt. Andrew's Stadium

RefereeThomas Kirk

Line-ups

Birmingham

4-2-3-1

QPR

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Birmingham

QPR

4Days since last match3

Last match: 13 Oct · the English Championship

Last match: 14 Oct · the English Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Birmingham	10	+6	17
5	QPR	10	+6	17

In the news

from the pressAll ›

How much Birmingham City may need to pay to sign Josh Windass or Adrian Segecic in JanuaryFootball League World · 17 Oct 08:30 · Birmingham

Birmingham City and Derby County must launch fresh Ipswich Town transfer raidFootball League World · 17 Oct 07:30 · Birmingham, Derby, Ipswich

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Birmingham

4-2-3-1

1 J. Beadle

26 B. Osayi-Samuel

5 P. Neumann

4 C. Klarer

20 A. Cochrane

24 T. Iwata

14 J. E. Solis Romero

16 P. Roberts

28 J. Stansfield

17 L. Millar

9 A. Priske

Coach · Chris Davies

Substitutes

21 · R. Allsop

23 · D. Fry

2 · E. Laird

19 · T. Gardner-Hickman

18 · M. Bird

10 · D. Gray

33 · M. Ducksch

7 · C. Vicente

32 · L. Vazquez

QPR

5-4-1

1 P. Charles

2 K. Adamson

3 J. Dunne

5 R. Edwards

6 J. Clarke-Salter

12 B. Kemper

17 K. Poku

20 H. Vale

18 G. Kamara

11 P. Smyth

26 R. Kolli

Coach · Julien Stephan

Substitutes

13 · C. Ward

4 · L. Morrison

40 · J. Varane

24 · N. Madsen

23 · I. Alemayehu Mulugeta

14 · K. Saito

25 · J. Obikwu

33 · L. Scarlett

22 · R. Kone

Our number · birmingham winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:36 · locked at kick-off

46% The market47%

Us46%

~~Market~~47%

We make Birmingham a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Birmingham v QPR~~1.48 – 1.08

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 17 v 17~~4 v 5

~~The market · Birmingham win~~47% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Birmingham win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Birmingham win	46%	47%	−1
Draw	26%	26%	0
QPR win	27%	26%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	47%	51%	−4
Both teams to score	51%	54%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	73%	74%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	26%	30%	−4
Birmingham or draw	73%	74%	−1
Birmingham clean sheet	34%	–	–
QPR clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.1 8.1 4.5 1 11.2 12.5 6.6 2.4 2 8.5 9.0 4.9 3 4.2 4.5 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Birmingham down, QPR across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,905 Championship matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.3% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.88 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Birmingham at home: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). QPR away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Birmingham, 1.08 for QPR. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.88

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~BIR 1–0 QPR · QPR 2–1 BIR · QPR 2–1 BIR · BIR 0–0 QPR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 5 Sept

BIRMINGHAM

DLWDWW2–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 4–0

QPR

LDDDDW0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea	10	+9	23
2	Middlesbrough	10	+6	21
3	West Ham	10	+17	19
4	Birmingham	10	+6	17
5	QPR	10	+6	17
6	Wolves	10	+3	17
7	West Brom	10	+2	17
8	Southampton	10	+11	16
9	Stoke City	10	+1	16
10	Blackburn	10	+2	15
11	Millwall	10	0	14
12	Bristol City	10	−2	14
13	Charlton	10	−3	14
14	Bolton	10	−3	13
15	Sheffield Utd	10	0	12
16	Portsmouth	9	−1	11
17	Wrexham	10	−4	11
18	Lincoln	10	−10	11
19	Cardiff	10	+1	10
20	Norwich	10	−3	9
21	Burnley	11	−5	8
22	Watford	10	−11	8
23	Derby	10	−10	6
24	Preston	10	−12	4