Birmingham v Preston prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Birmingham 4–0 Preston BIRMINGHAM WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Birmingham win~~47%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.415

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.190

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Birmingham win at 47%.
0′KICK-OFF Birmingham v Preston
2′Little has changed for our model: Birmingham 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–27–26
23′SUBSTITUTION · 24' Preston · On: Delano Burgzorg · Off: Liam Gibbs Corrected
33′We said Birmingham at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–18–6
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Birmingham 1–0 Preston
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Birmingham win: 47% at kick-off, 76% now
33′⚽ GOAL · 34' Birmingham 1–0 Preston · Liam Millar
34′Liam Millar scores for Birmingham on 34′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–18–6
35′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 76–18–6
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Birmingham win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
45′SECOND HALF Birmingham 3–0 Preston
45′⚽ GOAL · 49' Birmingham 3–0 Preston · August Priske (assist Jay Stansfield)
46′⚽ GOAL · 47' Birmingham 1–0 Preston · August Priske
46′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Stanley Mills · Preston
47′45′ and it is 1–0: August Priske on the scoresheet for Birmingham. 1–0 · 78–17–5
47′We said Birmingham at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Birmingham 2–0 Preston · August Priske
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Birmingham win: 47% at kick-off, 95% now
49′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 99–1–0
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Birmingham 3–0 Preston · August Priske
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Birmingham win: 47% at kick-off, 99% now
49′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Liam Millar · Birmingham
50′Birmingham ahead on 45′ through August Priske. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
56′🟥 RED CARD · 56' Birmingham
56′🟥 RED CARD · 56' Stanley Mills · Preston
60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Birmingham · On: Max Bird · Off: Jhon Elmer Solís Romero Corrected
60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Birmingham · On: Demarai Gray · Off: Liam Millar Corrected
60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Preston · On: Lewis Gibson · Off: Alfie Devine Corrected
73′Preston are down to ten from 56′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 3–0 · 100–0–0
74′We said Birmingham at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
74′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Birmingham · On: Carlos Vicente · Off: Patrick Roberts Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Birmingham · On: Taylor·Gardner Hickman · Off: Tomoki Iwata Corrected
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Birmingham 4–0 Preston · August Priske
78′Demarai Gray scores for Birmingham on 76′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
82′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Birmingham · On: Marvin Ducksch · Off: Jay Stansfield Corrected
FTFULL TIME Birmingham 4–0 Preston
FTBirmingham 4–0 Preston · Birmingham win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Birmingham v PrestonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:56 · locked at kick-off

Birmingham win47%

Draw27%

Preston win26%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 20:00

VenueSt. Andrew's Stadium

RefereeSam Allison

Line-ups

Birmingham

4-2-3-1

Preston

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Birmingham

Preston

3Days since last match3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Birmingham	9	+2	14
24	Preston	9	−8	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Gary Rowett reveals hilarious reaction he had to Birmingham City sacking himFootball League World · 7 hours ago · Birmingham

Derby County can make Birmingham City jealous despite Liam Millar blowFootball League World · 11 hours ago · Derby, Birmingham

Jay Stansfield lifts lid on private Tom Wagner messages at Birmingham CityFootball League World · 12 hours ago · Birmingham

I kept Birmingham City in the Championship - now I own a football clubFootball League World · 1 day ago · Birmingham

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Birmingham

4-2-3-1

1 J. Beadle

26 B. Osayi-Samuel

5 P. Neumann

4 C. Klarer

20 A. Cochrane

24 T. Iwata

14 J. E. Solis Romero

16 P. Roberts

28 J. Stansfield

17 L. Millar

9 A. Priske

Coach · Chris Davies

Substitutes

21 · R. Allsop

23 · D. Fry

2 · E. Laird

19 · T. Gardner-Hickman

18 · M. Bird

10 · D. Gray

33 · M. Ducksch

7 · C. Vicente

32 · L. Vazquez

Preston

3-4-2-1

1 D. Iversen

24 O. Offiah

14 J. Storey

16 A. Hughes

17 S. Mills

27 L. Leroy

15 J. Thompson

11 T. Small

7 A. Devine

20 L. Gibbs

10 C. Lang

Coach · Graham Alexander

Substitutes

21 · L. Nicholls

3 · A. Vukcevic

19 · L. Gibson

6 · L. Lindsay

2 · P. Valentin

23 · A. Moran

37 · D. Burgzorg

9 · J. Erabi

30 · G. Gryba

Our number · birmingham winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:56 · locked at kick-off

47% The market65%

Us47%

~~Market~~65%

We make Birmingham a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 17 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · birmingham win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 57% to 64% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Birmingham win	47%	65%	−17
Draw	27%	21%	+6
Preston win	26%	14%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	45%	56%	−10
Both teams to score	49%	51%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	71%	77%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	24%	34%	−10
Birmingham or draw	74%	86%	−11
Birmingham clean sheet	36%	–	–
Preston clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.8 8.2 4.3 1 11.9 12.7 6.2 2.1 2 9.0 9.0 4.6 3 4.4 4.5 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Birmingham down, Preston across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,892 Championship matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.7% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 1.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Birmingham at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Preston away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Birmingham, 1.01 for Preston. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 13 Oct 19:32. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~BIR 2–1 PRE · PRE 0–1 BIR · BIR 1–0 PRE · PRE 2–1 BIR

Form · last six in Championship

BIRMINGHAM

DDLWDW1–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–0

PRESTON

LWLLDL1–3 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Swansea	9	+8	20
2	Middlesbrough	9	+5	18
3	Southampton	9	+10	17
4	West Ham	9	+11	16
5	Stoke City	9	+2	16
6	Wolves	8	+4	14
7	QPR	9	+3	14
8	Birmingham	9	+2	14
9	Millwall	9	+1	14
10	West Brom	9	+1	14
11	Bristol City	9	−1	14
12	Charlton	9	−3	13
13	Blackburn	9	+1	12
14	Sheffield Utd	9	+1	12
15	Wrexham	9	−3	11
16	Lincoln	9	−4	11
17	Bolton	9	−5	10
18	Norwich	9	−2	9
19	Portsmouth	8	−2	8
20	Watford	9	−7	8
21	Cardiff	9	−3	7
22	Burnley	9	−4	7
23	Derby	9	−7	6
24	Preston	9	−8	4