Platense v Firpo prediction · Primera Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PlatenseDrawFirpo

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 21:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Firpo 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Firpo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Platense 21%, draw 26%, Firpo 53%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Platense v FirpoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Platense win21%

Draw26%

Firpo win53%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 21:00

RoundApertura · matchday 17

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Platense

Firpo

7Days since last match3

Last match: 19 Oct · Primera Division (El Salvador)

Last match: 22 Oct · CONCACAF Central American Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · firpo winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Firpo a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Platense v Firpo~~1.03 – 1.74

~~Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 20 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 22 v 31~~6 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Firpo win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Platense win	21%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Firpo win	53%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Platense or draw	47%	–	–
Platense clean sheet	18%	–	–
Firpo clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.7 9.7 9.4 5.5 2.4 1 5.2 12.4 9.6 5.6 2.5 2 3.4 5.7 5.0 2.9 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Platense down, Firpo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,429 Primera Division matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.6% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Platense at home: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Firpo away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.03 goals for Platense, 1.74 for Firpo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FIR 1–0 PLA · PLA 0–1 FIR · FIR 3–1 PLA · FIR 6–2 PLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 20 Sept

PLATENSE

LDLWWW0–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 3–2

FIRPO

DWWDWW0–0 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Firpo	15	+17	31
2	FAS	16	+12	31
3	Isidro Metapán	16	+6	30
4	Inter	17	+8	26
5	Águila	16	+7	24
6	Platense	16	0	22
7	Alianza	15	+1	20
8	Municipal Limeño	16	0	20
9	Inca Aruba	17	−18	16
10	Atletico Balboa	16	−8	14
11	Cacahuatique	16	−11	12
12	Fuerte San Francisco	16	−14	12