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Municipal Limeño v Firpo

Municipal Limeño

2–3Full time

Firpo

Primera Division · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 04:35

Municipal Limeño 2–3 Firpo FIRPO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Firpo win~~43%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.488

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.514

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Firpo win at 43%.
0′Little has changed for our model: Firpo 43% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 30–26–44
0′KICK-OFF Municipal Limeño v Firpo
3′Little has changed for our model: Firpo 43% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 30–26–44
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Municipal Limeño 0–1 Firpo
22′17′ and it is 0–1: Firpo have scored. 0–1 · 10–19–71
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Firpo win: 43% at kick-off, 71% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Firpo win: 43% at kick-off, 44% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Firpo win: 43% at kick-off, 44% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Firpo win: 43% at kick-off, 71% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Firpo win: 43% at kick-off, 44% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Firpo win: 43% at kick-off, 71% now
25′17′ and it is 0–1: R. Aguila on the scoresheet for Firpo. 0–1 · 9–19–72
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Firpo win: 43% at kick-off, 71% now
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Municipal Limeño 0–2 Firpo · R. Aguila
31′⚽ GOAL · 32' Municipal Limeño 0–2 Firpo
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Firpo win: 43% at kick-off, 72% now
45′SECOND HALF Municipal Limeño 1–2 Firpo
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Firpo win: 43% at kick-off, 72% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Firpo win: 43% at kick-off, 72% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Firpo win: 43% at kick-off, 72% now
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Municipal Limeño 1–2 Firpo · L. S. Vasquez Velasquez
48′⚽ GOAL · 49' Municipal Limeño 1–2 Firpo
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Municipal Limeño 2–2 Firpo · J. C. Argueta
48′⚽ GOAL · 49' Municipal Limeño 2–2 Firpo
55′🟥 RED CARD · 55' Municipal Limeño
55′🟥 RED CARD · 56' Municipal Limeño
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Municipal Limeño 2–3 Firpo · J. C. Argueta
82′⚽ GOAL · 83' Municipal Limeño 2–3 Firpo
FTFULL TIME Municipal Limeño 2–3 Firpo
FTMunicipal Limeño 2–3 Firpo · Firpo win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Municipal Limeño win29%

Draw28%

Firpo win43%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 02:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · firpo winPublished 11 Oct 02:00

43% The market41%

Us43%

~~Market~~41%

We make Firpo a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · firpo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 40% to 41% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Municipal Limeño win	29%	30%	−1
Draw	28%	29%	0
Firpo win	43%	41%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	49%	47%	+2
Both teams to score	54%	53%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	75%	71%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	27%	28%	0
Municipal Limeño or draw	57%	59%	−1
Municipal Limeño clean sheet	23%	–	–
Firpo clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 8.7 9.3 7.8 3.8 1 7.0 13.5 8.9 4.4 2 4.9 7.0 5.2 2.5 3 2.8 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Municipal Limeño down, Firpo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,417 Primera Division matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.4% of games this season, across 83 played.

Head to head

17 previous meetings, 3.06 goals a meeting; 8 of 17 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Municipal Limeño at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Firpo away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Municipal Limeño, 1.47 for Firpo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

17 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.06

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 17

~~Both scored~~12 of 17

~~Last meetings~~FIR 2–0 MUN · MUN 2–1 FIR · FIR 2–0 MUN · FIR 1–1 MUN

Form · last six in Primera Division

MUNICIPAL LIMEÑO

DWLLLL0–0 · 2–0 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 1–2

FIRPO

LWDWWD1–2 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FAS	13	+12	27
2	Isidro Metapán	13	+8	26
3	Firpo	13	+14	25
4	Inter	14	+7	22
5	Águila	14	+4	20
6	Platense	15	−1	19
7	Alianza	13	+1	18
8	Municipal Limeño	14	0	17
9	Inca Aruba	15	−14	16
10	Atletico Balboa	14	−7	13
11	Cacahuatique	14	−10	11
12	Fuerte San Francisco	14	−14	9