Municipal Limeño v Cacahuatique prediction · Primera Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Municipal LimeñoDrawCacahuatique

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 01:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Municipal Limeño 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Municipal Limeño are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Municipal Limeño 47%, draw 29%, Cacahuatique 24%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Municipal Limeño v CacahuatiqueBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Municipal Limeño win47%

Draw29%

Cacahuatique win24%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 01:00

RoundApertura · matchday 17

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Municipal Limeño

Cacahuatique

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera Division (El Salvador)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Municipal Limeño	16	0	20
11	Cacahuatique	16	−11	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · municipal limeño winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

47% The market51%

Us47%

~~Market~~51%

We make Municipal Limeño a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Municipal Limeño v Cacahuatique~~1.48 – 0.99

~~Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 20 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 20 v 12~~8 v 11

~~The market · Municipal Limeño win~~51% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Municipal Limeño win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Municipal Limeño win	47%	51%	−4
Draw	29%	27%	+2
Cacahuatique win	24%	22%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	45%	50%	−5
Both teams to score	49%	52%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	72%	72%	0
Over 3.5 goals	24%	29%	−5
Municipal Limeño or draw	76%	78%	−2
Municipal Limeño clean sheet	38%	–	–
Cacahuatique clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 9.9 7.0 4.1 1 11.2 13.6 6.1 2.0 2 9.3 9.0 4.5 3 4.6 4.5 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Municipal Limeño down, Cacahuatique across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,432 Primera Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.0% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Municipal Limeño at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Cacahuatique away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Municipal Limeño, 0.99 for Cacahuatique. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CAC 1–3 MUN · MUN 2–3 CAC · CAC 0–5 MUN · MUN 4–1 CAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 20 Sept

MUNICIPAL LIMEÑO

LLLLLW2–3 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 2–1

CACAHUATIQUE

DLWLLD0–0 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Firpo	15	+17	31
2	FAS	16	+12	31
3	Isidro Metapán	16	+6	30
4	Inter	17	+8	26
5	Águila	16	+7	24
6	Platense	16	0	22
7	Alianza	15	+1	20
8	Municipal Limeño	16	0	20
9	Inca Aruba	17	−18	16
10	Atletico Balboa	16	−8	14
11	Cacahuatique	16	−11	12
12	Fuerte San Francisco	16	−14	12