Isidro Metapán v Fuerte San Francisco

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Isidro Metapán win at 53%.
2. 3′KICK-OFF Isidro Metapán v Fuerte San Francisco
3. 4′Much as we predicted: Isidro Metapán was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–29–18
4. 13′We said Isidro Metapán at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–26–50
5. 13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Isidro Metapán 0–1 Fuerte San Francisco
6. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Isidro Metapán win: 53% at kick-off, 24% now
7. 13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' Fuerte San Francisco win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Isidro Metapán win 24%)
8. 14′Fuerte San Francisco score on 12′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 24–26–50
9. 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Isidro Metapán win: 53% at kick-off, 23% now
10. 21′Isidro Metapán find the net on 20′. 1–1. 1–1 · 49–33–18
11. 21′⚽ GOAL · 20' Isidro Metapán 1–1 Fuerte San Francisco
12. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Isidro Metapán win: 53% at kick-off, 49% now
13. 21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Isidro Metapán win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Fuerte San Francisco win 18%)
14. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Isidro Metapán win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
15. 44′We said Isidro Metapán at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 41%. 1–1 · 41–42–17
16. 45′HALF-TIME Isidro Metapán 1–1 Fuerte San Francisco
17. 45′SECOND HALF Isidro Metapán 1–1 Fuerte San Francisco
18. 47′We said Isidro Metapán at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–44–17
19. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Isidro Metapán win 39%)
20. 58′We said Isidro Metapán at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 33–52–15
21. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Isidro Metapán win: 53% at kick-off, 33% now
22. 63′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–1 · 30–56–14
23. 64′We said Isidro Metapán at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–57–14
24. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Isidro Metapán win: 53% at kick-off, 22% now
25. 76′We said Isidro Metapán at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–72–9
26. 80′We said Isidro Metapán at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–79–7
27. 83′We published Isidro Metapán at 53%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
28. 83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Isidro Metapán 2–1 Fuerte San Francisco
29. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Isidro Metapán win: 53% at kick-off, 95% now
30. 83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Isidro Metapán win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 5%)
31. 84′A goal for Isidro Metapán on 83′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 95–4–0
32. 84′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 95–4–0
33. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Isidro Metapán win: 53% at kick-off, 95% now
34. 90′Full time, 3–2. We called Isidro Metapán at 53% — that one lands. 3–2 · 100–0–0
35. 98′We said Isidro Metapán at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 2–2 · 2–98–1 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
36. 98′⚽ GOAL · 90+8' Isidro Metapán 2–2 Fuerte San Francisco
37. 98′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+8' Isidro Metapán win: 53% at kick-off, 2% now
38. 98′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+8' Draw is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Isidro Metapán win 2%)
39. 99′Fuerte San Francisco score on 90′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 2–98–1 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
40. 100′Isidro Metapán find the net on 90′. 3–2. 3–2 · 99–1–0
41. 100′⚽ GOAL · 90+9' Isidro Metapán 3–2 Fuerte San Francisco
42. 100′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+10' Isidro Metapán win: 53% at kick-off, 99% now
43. 100′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+10' Isidro Metapán win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
44. FTFULL TIME Isidro Metapán 3–2 Fuerte San Francisco
45. FTIsidro Metapán 3–2 Fuerte San Francisco · Isidro Metapán win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.