Inter v Municipal Limeño prediction · Primera Division

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 05:01

Inter 1–2 Municipal Limeño MUNICIPAL LIMEÑO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Municipal Limeño win~~35%

~~The market said~~25%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.626

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.874

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Municipal Limeño win at 35%.
1′Much as we predicted: Municipal Limeño was 35% before kick-off and our model makes it 35% now. 0–0 · 35–30–35
1′KICK-OFF Inter v Municipal Limeño
2′Inter find the net on 1′. 1–0. 1–0 · 65–20–16
2′⚽ GOAL · 1' Inter 1–0 Municipal Limeño
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 2' Municipal Limeño win: 35% at kick-off, 16% now
3′We said Municipal Limeño at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 1–0 · 65–20–16
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' Municipal Limeño win: 35% at kick-off, 15% now
11′We said Municipal Limeño at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 65–20–14
13′Inter ahead on 2′ through B. Ramirez. 1–0. 1–0 · 66–20–14
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Inter 1–1 Municipal Limeño
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Municipal Limeño win: 35% at kick-off, 33% now
30′A goal for Municipal Limeño on 29′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 32–36–32
32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Inter win 31%)
45′HALF-TIME Inter 1–1 Municipal Limeño
45′SECOND HALF Inter 1–1 Municipal Limeño
56′We published Municipal Limeño at 35%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–2 · 5–20–75
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Inter 1–2 Municipal Limeño
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Municipal Limeño win: 35% at kick-off, 75% now
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Municipal Limeño win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 20%)
58′Municipal Limeño score on 57′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 5–20–75
58′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 5–20–75
67′We published Municipal Limeño at 35%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
75′We published Municipal Limeño at 35%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Municipal Limeño win: 35% at kick-off, 85% now
81′We published Municipal Limeño at 35%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–10–90
88′We published Municipal Limeño at 35%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Municipal Limeño win: 35% at kick-off, 95% now
FTFULL TIME Inter 1–2 Municipal Limeño
FTInter 1–2 Municipal Limeño · Municipal Limeño win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Municipal Limeño just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Inter 35%, draw 30%, Municipal Limeño 35%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Inter v Municipal LimeñoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Inter win35%

Draw30%

Municipal Limeño win35%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 02:00

RoundApertura · matchday 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Inter

Municipal Limeño

6Days since last match6

Last match: 12 Oct · Primera Division (El Salvador)

Last match: 11 Oct · Primera Division (El Salvador)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Inter	15	+7	23
8	Municipal Limeño	15	−1	17

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Inter add Pavard to growing injury list along with Lautaro, Stones and JonesFootball Italia · 16 Oct 15:36 · Inter Chivu: Inter coach reveals Lautaro’s return timeline, takes blame for Brugge lossFootball Italia · 16 Oct 14:39 · Inter

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · municipal limeño winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:01 · locked at kick-off

35% The market25%

Us35%

~~Market~~25%

We make Municipal Limeño a 35% chance to win. The market has them at 25%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Inter v Municipal Limeño~~1.22 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 13 Sept~~W0 D5 L1 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 23 v 17~~5 v 8

~~The market · Municipal Limeño win~~25% · ours 35%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Municipal Limeño win The market, margin stripped

Published at 36%, 35% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 25% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Inter win	35%	48%	−13
Draw	30%	27%	+3
Municipal Limeño win	35%	25%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	45%	49%	−4
Both teams to score	51%	53%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	72%	72%	0
Over 3.5 goals	24%	29%	−5
Inter or draw	65%	75%	−10
Inter clean sheet	29%	–	–
Municipal Limeño clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.1%

0123450 10.0 9.2 6.5 2.7 1 9.1 14.1 7.9 3.3 2 6.4 7.8 4.8 2.0 3 2.6 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Inter down, Municipal Limeño across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,423 Primera Division matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.6% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.14 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Inter at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Municipal Limeño away: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Inter, 1.24 for Municipal Limeño. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.14

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~MUN 0–1 INT · INT 2–1 MUN · MUN 2–0 INT · INT 2–1 MUN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 13 Sept

INTER

DDDLDD2–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–2

MUNICIPAL LIMEÑO

WLLLLL2–0 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Firpo	15	+17	31
2	FAS	14	+13	30
3	Isidro Metapán	14	+5	26
4	Águila	15	+7	23
5	Inter	15	+7	23
6	Alianza	14	+1	19
7	Platense	15	−1	19
8	Municipal Limeño	15	−1	17
9	Inca Aruba	16	−16	16
10	Atletico Balboa	15	−8	13
11	Fuerte San Francisco	15	−13	12
12	Cacahuatique	15	−11	11