Home › Football › Primera Division › Inca Aruba v Platense

Inca Aruba v Platense

Inca Aruba

1–4Full time

Platense

Primera Division · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 04:03

Inca Aruba 1–4 Platense INCA ARUBA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Inca Aruba win~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.685

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Inca Aruba win at 37%.
1′Much as we predicted: Inca Aruba was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–28–34
1′KICK-OFF Inca Aruba v Platense
21′⚽ GOAL · 23' Inca Aruba 0–0 Platense
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Inca Aruba 0–1 Platense
34′⚽ GOAL · 35' Inca Aruba 0–1 Platense
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Inca Aruba 1–1 Platense · C. Bogota
42′⚽ GOAL · 43' Inca Aruba 1–1 Platense
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Inca Aruba 1–2 Platense · J. Urrutia
45′SECOND HALF Inca Aruba 1–3 Platense
50′⚽ GOAL · 51' Inca Aruba 1–2 Platense
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Inca Aruba 1–3 Platense · N. Bello
89′⚽ GOAL · 90' Inca Aruba 1–3 Platense
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' Inca Aruba 1–4 Platense · F. Martinez
FTFULL TIME Inca Aruba 1–4 Platense
FTInca Aruba 1–4 Platense · Inca Aruba win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Inca Aruba win37%

Draw30%

Platense win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 01:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · inca aruba winPublished 10 Oct 01:01

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Inca Aruba a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Inca Aruba win	37%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Platense win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Inca Aruba or draw	67%	–	–
Inca Aruba clean sheet	31%	–	–
Platense clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.2%

0123450 10.3 8.8 6.0 2.4 1 9.7 14.2 7.5 2.9 2 7.0 8.1 4.7 3 3.0 3.5 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Inca Aruba down, Platense across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,416 Primera Division matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.8% of games this season, across 82 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Inca Aruba at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Platense away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Inca Aruba, 1.17 for Platense. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~PLA 2–0 INC

Form · last six in Primera Division

INCA ARUBA

WLWDWD1–0 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

PLATENSE

LLLDLW1–2 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FAS	13	+12	27
2	Isidro Metapán	13	+8	26
3	Firpo	13	+14	25
4	Inter	14	+7	22
5	Águila	14	+4	20
6	Alianza	13	+1	18
7	Municipal Limeño	14	0	17
8	Platense	14	−4	16
9	Inca Aruba	14	−11	16
10	Atletico Balboa	14	−7	13
11	Cacahuatique	14	−10	11
12	Fuerte San Francisco	14	−14	9