Inca Aruba v Inter prediction · Primera Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 03:35

Inca Aruba 0–2 Inter INTER WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Inter win~~40%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.541

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.223

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Inter win at 40%.
1′KICK-OFF Inca Aruba v Inter
2′Much as we predicted: Inter was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 30–30–40
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Inter win 36%)
45′HALF-TIME Inca Aruba 0–0 Inter
46′SECOND HALF Inca Aruba 0–0 Inter
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Inter win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
55′We expected about 2.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 23–48–29
56′We said Inter at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 23–49–28
64′We said Inter at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 20–55–24
66′Inter find the net on 66′. 0–1. 0–1 · 3–16–81
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Inca Aruba 0–1 Inter
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Inter win: 40% at kick-off, 81% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Inter win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 58%)
67′We published Inter at 40%. Our model now makes it 81%. 0–1 · 3–16–81
69′Inter ahead on 68′ through E. Mauricio. 0–1. 0–1 · 2–15–82
73′We published Inter at 40%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
80′We published Inter at 40%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Inter win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
87′We published Inter at 40%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
97′A goal for Inter on 90′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
97′⚽ GOAL · 90+7' Inca Aruba 0–2 Inter
97′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+7' Inter win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
98′We published Inter at 40%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Inca Aruba 0–2 Inter
FTInca Aruba 0–2 Inter · Inter win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Inter are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Inca Aruba 30%, draw 30%, Inter 40%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Inca Aruba v InterBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Inca Aruba win30%

Draw30%

Inter win40%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 01:00

RoundApertura · matchday 17

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Inca Aruba

Inter

8Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Primera Division (El Salvador)

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera Division (El Salvador)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Inter	16	+6	23
9	Inca Aruba	16	−16	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · inter winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

40% The market62%

Us40%

~~Market~~62%

We make Inter a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 22 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Inca Aruba v Inter~~1.14 – 1.35

~~Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 19 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W0 D4 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 23~~9 v 5

~~The market · Inter win~~62% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Inter win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Inca Aruba win	30%	15%	+15
Draw	30%	23%	+7
Inter win	40%	62%	−22
Over 2.5 goals	45%	53%	−8
Both teams to score	51%	50%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	72%	75%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	24%	33%	−9
Inca Aruba or draw	60%	38%	+22
Inca Aruba clean sheet	26%	–	–
Inter clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.0%

0123450 9.9 9.8 7.5 3.4 1 8.1 14.0 8.5 3.8 2 5.4 7.2 4.8 2.2 3 2.1 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Inca Aruba down, Inter across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,429 Primera Division matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.6% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026/27 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Inca Aruba at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Inter away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Inca Aruba, 1.35 for Inter. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026/27

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~INT 4–1 INC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 19 Sept

INCA ARUBA

WDWDLL2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 0–2

INTER

DDLDDL0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Firpo	15	+17	31
2	FAS	16	+12	31
3	Isidro Metapán	16	+6	30
4	Águila	16	+7	24
5	Inter	16	+6	23
6	Platense	16	0	22
7	Alianza	15	+1	20
8	Municipal Limeño	16	0	20
9	Inca Aruba	16	−16	16
10	Atletico Balboa	16	−8	14
11	Cacahuatique	16	−11	12
12	Fuerte San Francisco	16	−14	12