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Fuerte San Francisco v Cacahuatique

Fuerte San Francisco

2–1Full time

Cacahuatique

Primera Division · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 00:30

Fuerte San Francisco 2–1 Cacahuatique CACAHUATIQUE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cacahuatique win~~39%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.746

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.651

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cacahuatique win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Cacahuatique 39% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 31–29–40
1′KICK-OFF Fuerte San Francisco v Cacahuatique
2′Little has changed for our model: Cacahuatique 39% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 31–29–40
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Fuerte San Francisco 1–0 Cacahuatique
13′⚽ GOAL · 14' Fuerte San Francisco 1–0 Cacahuatique
21′A goal for Fuerte San Francisco on 14′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 63–24–13
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Cacahuatique win: 39% at kick-off, 13% now
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Fuerte San Francisco win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Cacahuatique win 13%)
22′A goal for Fuerte San Francisco on 14′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 63–24–13
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Cacahuatique win: 39% at kick-off, 40% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Cacahuatique win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Fuerte San Francisco win 31%)
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Cacahuatique win: 39% at kick-off, 13% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Fuerte San Francisco win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Cacahuatique win 13%)
33′⚽ GOAL · 14' Fuerte San Francisco 1–0 Cacahuatique · J. Gallardo
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Cacahuatique win: 39% at kick-off, 13% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Fuerte San Francisco win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Cacahuatique win 13%)
44′⚽ GOAL · 46' Fuerte San Francisco 1–0 Cacahuatique
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Fuerte San Francisco 1–1 Cacahuatique · J. Gallardo
45′SECOND HALF Fuerte San Francisco 1–1 Cacahuatique
68′⚽ GOAL · 69' Fuerte San Francisco 1–1 Cacahuatique
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Fuerte San Francisco 2–1 Cacahuatique · B. Gonzalez
FTFULL TIME Fuerte San Francisco 2–1 Cacahuatique
FTFuerte San Francisco 2–1 Cacahuatique · Cacahuatique win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Fuerte San Francisco win30%

Draw32%

Cacahuatique win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 22:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cacahuatique winPublished 10 Oct 22:04

39% The market35%

Us39%

~~Market~~35%

We make Cacahuatique a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cacahuatique win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 38% to 35% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fuerte San Francisco win	30%	34%	−5
Draw	32%	30%	+1
Cacahuatique win	39%	35%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	38%	43%	−4
Both teams to score	46%	50%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	66%	67%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	19%	24%	−5
Fuerte San Francisco or draw	61%	65%	−3
Fuerte San Francisco clean sheet	30%	–	–
Cacahuatique clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.6%

0123450 12.4 11.6 7.8 3.2 1 9.6 14.6 7.9 3.2 2 5.6 6.7 4.0 3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fuerte San Francisco down, Cacahuatique across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,416 Primera Division matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.8% of games this season, across 82 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 1.44 goals a meeting; 1 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fuerte San Francisco at home: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Cacahuatique away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.02 goals for Fuerte San Francisco, 1.20 for Cacahuatique. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.44

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 9

~~Both scored~~2 of 9

~~Last meetings~~CAC 0–0 FUE · FUE 0–1 CAC · CAC 0–0 FUE · FUE 1–3 CAC

Form · last six in Primera Division

FUERTE SAN FRANCISCO

LLDDLD0–2 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 1–1

CACAHUATIQUE

LLDLWL0–2 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FAS	13	+12	27
2	Isidro Metapán	13	+8	26
3	Firpo	13	+14	25
4	Inter	14	+7	22
5	Águila	14	+4	20
6	Alianza	13	+1	18
7	Municipal Limeño	14	0	17
8	Platense	14	−4	16
9	Inca Aruba	14	−11	16
10	Atletico Balboa	14	−7	13
11	Cacahuatique	14	−10	11
12	Fuerte San Francisco	14	−14	9