Fuerte San Francisco v Atletico Balboa prediction · Primera Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Fuerte San FranciscoDrawAtletico Balboa

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 21:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Atletico Balboa 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Atletico Balboa just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Fuerte San Francisco 33%, draw 31%, Atletico Balboa 37%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Fuerte San Francisco v Atletico BalboaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Fuerte San Francisco win33%

Draw31%

Atletico Balboa win37%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 21:00

RoundApertura · matchday 17

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fuerte San Francisco

Atletico Balboa

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera Division (El Salvador)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Atletico Balboa	16	−8	14
12	Fuerte San Francisco	16	−14	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atletico balboa winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:38 · locked at kick-off

37% The market33%

Us37%

~~Market~~33%

We make Atletico Balboa a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fuerte San Francisco v Atletico Balboa~~1.14 – 1.22

~~Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 20 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 12 v 14~~12 v 10

~~The market · Atletico Balboa win~~33% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atletico Balboa win The market, margin stripped

Published at 36%, 37% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fuerte San Francisco win	33%	38%	−5
Draw	31%	29%	+2
Atletico Balboa win	37%	33%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	42%	49%	−7
Both teams to score	49%	54%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	70%	72%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	21%	29%	−8
Fuerte San Francisco or draw	63%	67%	−4
Fuerte San Francisco clean sheet	30%	–	–
Atletico Balboa clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.4%

0123450 11.0 10.1 7.1 2.9 1 9.3 14.4 7.9 3.3 2 6.1 7.4 4.5 3 2.3 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fuerte San Francisco down, Atletico Balboa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,432 Primera Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.0% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026/27 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fuerte San Francisco at home: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Atletico Balboa away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Fuerte San Francisco, 1.22 for Atletico Balboa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026/27

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ATL 1–0 FUE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 20 Sept

FUERTE SAN FRANCISCO

DDLDWL2–2 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–3

ATLETICO BALBOA

LDLLLD1–3 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Firpo	15	+17	31
2	FAS	17	+10	31
3	Isidro Metapán	17	+5	30
4	Águila	17	+9	27
5	Inter	17	+8	26
6	Alianza	16	+2	23
7	Platense	16	0	22
8	Municipal Limeño	17	0	21
9	Inca Aruba	17	−18	16
10	Atletico Balboa	16	−8	14
11	Cacahuatique	17	−11	13
12	Fuerte San Francisco	16	−14	12