Firpo v Inca Aruba prediction · Primera Division

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 04:30

Firpo 2–0 Inca Aruba FIRPO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Firpo win~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.174

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Firpo win at 66%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Firpo 66% before kick-off, 67% now. 0–0 · 67–19–13
1′KICK-OFF Firpo v Inca Aruba
30′Inca Aruba find the net on 29′. 0–1. 0–1 · 30–28–41
30′⚽ GOAL · 29' Firpo 0–1 Inca Aruba
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Firpo win: 66% at kick-off, 30% now
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Inca Aruba win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Firpo win 30%)
31′We said Firpo at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 0–1 · 30–29–42
31′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 30–29–42
33′We said Firpo at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–29–42
34′GOAL DISALLOWED · 34' Inca Aruba
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Firpo win: 66% at kick-off, 57% now
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Firpo win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Inca Aruba win 15%)
43′We said Firpo at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 53%. 0–0 · 53–32–14
45′Firpo find the net on 45′. 1–0. 1–0 · 86–12–3
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Firpo 1–0 Inca Aruba
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Firpo win: 66% at kick-off, 86% now
45′HALF-TIME Firpo 2–0 Inca Aruba
46′We said Firpo at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 1–0 · 86–12–3
46′SECOND HALF Firpo 2–0 Inca Aruba
52′A goal for Firpo on 45′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
52′We said Firpo at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
52′⚽ GOAL · 45+6' Firpo 2–0 Inca Aruba
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+7' Firpo win: 66% at kick-off, 98% now
80′We said Firpo at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Firpo 2–0 Inca Aruba
FTFirpo 2–0 Inca Aruba · Firpo win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Firpo are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Firpo 66%, draw 21%, Inca Aruba 13%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Firpo v Inca ArubaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Firpo win66%

Draw21%

Inca Aruba win13%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 02:00

RoundApertura · matchday 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Firpo

Inca Aruba

5Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Primera Division (El Salvador)

Last match: 10 Oct · Primera Division (El Salvador)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Firpo	14	+15	28
9	Inca Aruba	15	−14	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · firpo winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

66% The market–

Us66%

We make Firpo a 66% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–0.8, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Firpo v Inca Aruba~~2.17 – 0.85

~~Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 28 v 16~~2 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Firpo win	66%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Inca Aruba win	13%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Firpo or draw	87%	–	–
Firpo clean sheet	43%	–	–
Inca Aruba clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.4%

0123450 6.0 3.3 1 9.7 10.0 3.8 2 11.4 9.6 4.1 3 8.2 6.9 2.9 4 4.5 3.8 5 2.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Firpo down, Inca Aruba across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,422 Primera Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.1% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026/27 in every competition we cover, 0.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Firpo at home: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Inca Aruba away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.17 goals for Firpo, 0.85 for Inca Aruba. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026/27

~~Goals a meeting~~0.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~INC 0–0 FIR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 12 Sept

FIRPO

WDWWDW3–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 3–2

INCA ARUBA

LWDWDL1–3 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FAS	14	+13	30
2	Firpo	14	+15	28
3	Isidro Metapán	14	+5	26
4	Águila	15	+7	23
5	Inter	15	+7	23
6	Alianza	14	+1	19
7	Platense	15	−1	19
8	Municipal Limeño	15	−1	17
9	Inca Aruba	15	−14	16
10	Atletico Balboa	15	−8	13
11	Fuerte San Francisco	15	−13	12
12	Cacahuatique	15	−11	11