FAS v Platense

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said FAS win at 61%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: FAS 61% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 61–24–15
3. 1′KICK-OFF FAS v Platense
4. 18′🟥 RED CARD · 18' FAS
5. 19′FAS are down to ten from 18′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 57–27–16
6. 23′A goal for FAS on 23′. 0–0 · 56–28–16
7. 23′We said FAS at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–12–4
8. 23′⚽ GOAL · 23' FAS 1–0 Platense
9. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' FAS win: 61% at kick-off, 84% now
10. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 84–12–4
11. 45′HALF-TIME FAS 1–1 Platense
12. 45′SECOND HALF FAS 1–1 Platense
13. 48′We said FAS at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 46%. 1–1 · 46–38–16
14. 48′⚽ GOAL · 48' FAS 1–1 Platense
15. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' FAS win: 61% at kick-off, 46% now
16. 49′Platense find the net on 45′. 1–1. 1–1 · 45–39–16
17. 51′We said FAS at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–40–15
18. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' FAS win: 61% at kick-off, 41% now
19. 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was FAS win 40%)
20. 59′We said FAS at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–46–14
21. 66′We said FAS at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–53–13
22. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' FAS win: 61% at kick-off, 31% now
23. 71′We said FAS at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–60–11
24. 75′We said FAS at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–66–10
25. 78′We said FAS at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 1–2 · 3–18–79
26. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' FAS win: 61% at kick-off, 21% now
27. 78′⚽ GOAL · 78' FAS 1–2 Platense
28. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' FAS win: 61% at kick-off, 3% now
29. 78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Platense win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 18%)
30. 79′A goal for Platense on 79′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 2–17–81
31. 80′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 2–16–82
32. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' FAS win: 61% at kick-off, 1% now
33. 89′🟥 RED CARD · 89' FAS
34. 90′2–3 at the end. Our 61% on FAS misses, and the record keeps it. 2–3 · 0–0–100
35. 91′A second red card for FAS on 90′ — they are down to nine. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–2 · 0–5–95 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
36. 94′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–0–100 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
37. 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' FAS 1–3 Platense
38. 95′Platense score on 90′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
39. 98′5 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 0–2–98
40. 98′⚽ GOAL · 90+8' FAS 2–3 Platense
41. 99′FAS find the net on 90′. 2–3. 2–3 · 0–2–98
42. FTFULL TIME FAS 2–3 Platense
43. FTFAS 2–3 Platense · FAS win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.