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Model 1.2

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FAS v Isidro Metapán

FAS
0–0Full time
Isidro Metapán

Primera Division · THU 22 OCT

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 05:00
FAS 0–0 Isidro Metapán FAS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said FAS win51%
The market said42%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.838
The market’s Brier score0.765

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 9 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said FAS win at 51%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF FAS v Isidro Metapán
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: FAS 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–27–22
  4. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' FAS win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
  5. 45′HALF-TIME FAS 0–0 Isidro Metapán
  6. 45′SECOND HALF FAS 0–0 Isidro Metapán
  7. 47′We said FAS at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–41–20
  8. 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was FAS win 40%)
  9. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.6 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 40–40–20
  10. 57′We said FAS at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–47–18
  11. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' FAS win: 51% at kick-off, 31% now
  12. 65′We said FAS at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–55–16
  13. 71′We said FAS at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–62–14
  14. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' FAS win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
  15. 78′We said FAS at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 0–0 · 17–73–10
  16. 81′We said FAS at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–78–8
  17. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' FAS win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
  18. 85′We said FAS at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–5
  19. 91′We said FAS at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
  20. FTFULL TIME FAS 0–0 Isidro Metapán
  21. FTFAS 0–0 Isidro Metapán · FAS win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FAS are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FAS 51%, draw 27%, Isidro Metapán 22%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on FAS v Isidro MetapánBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

FAS win51%
Draw27%
Isidro Metapán win22%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 02:30

RoundApertura · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FAS

Isidro Metapán

4Days since last match4

Last match: 19 Oct · Primera Division (El Salvador)

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera Division (El Salvador)

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2FAS15+1230
3Isidro Metapán15+629

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fas winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 19 Oct 03:08 · locked at kick-off
51% The market42%
Us51%
Market42%

We make FAS a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · FAS v Isidro Metapán1.63 – 0.98
Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 13 SeptW4 D1 L1 · W4 D1 L1
Table places · points 30 v 292 v 3
The market · FAS win42% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 16 OCT 00:0022 OCT 02:07
Our probability · FAS win The market, margin stripped

Published at 52%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
FAS win51%42%+9
Draw27%29%−2
Isidro Metapán win22%29%−7
Over 2.5 goals48%48%0
Both teams to score51%53%−2
Over 1.5 goals75%71%+4
Over 3.5 goals27%29%−2
FAS or draw78%71%+7
FAS clean sheet38%––
Isidro Metapán clean sheet20%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%
0123450 8.8 6.0 3.6 1 10.7 12.9 5.7 2 9.7 9.4 4.6 3 5.3 5.1 2.5 4 2.2 2.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+FAS down, Isidro Metapán across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.56 of 10
Both scored5 of 10
Last meetingsISI 2–0 FAS · ISI 0–3 FAS · FAS 2–2 ISI · ISI 2–3 FAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 13 Sept

FAS

WWDWWL2–0 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–3

ISIDRO METAPÁN

WDWWLW2–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 0–3 · 3–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Firpo15+1731
2FAS15+1230
3Isidro Metapán15+629
4Águila16+724
5Inter16+623
6Platense16022
7Alianza15+120
8Municipal Limeño16020
9Inca Aruba16−1616
10Atletico Balboa16−814
11Cacahuatique16−1112
12Fuerte San Francisco16−1412

The competition's standings before kick-off.